259
FXUS65 KPIH 082003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory across the Arco Desert Tonight

- Warming trend will continue throughout the week, with daytime
  temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Friday.

- Precipitation and colder temperatures return this weekend and
  into early next week!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Same stuff, different day as far as sensible weather across eastern
Idaho is concerned although some changes are on the immediate
horizon. Afternoon satellite is again void of cloud cover with ample
sunshine in place throughout the region. Temperatures are on the
upward swing however compared to previous days as H5 heights climb
over the next few days. Already seeing some mid to upper 60s
across the lower elevations this afternoon with some low 70s
likely before all is set and done today. The warming temps
continue into the overnight hours as well with overnight lows
expected to be about 3-7 degrees warmer than last night. As
such, only a Frost Advisory is in place tonight across the Arco
Desert zone with the other agricultural zones void of any
frost/freeze products. Some rural locations across the Snake
Plain will likely still see some temps in the mid to upper 30s
tonight but it`s not widespread enough to warrant any advisory.
Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the next week with mid to
upper 70s expected across the lower elevations and wouldn`t be
surprised if a few spots top 80 degrees especially with an
increasing southerly wind flow expected during the afternoon.
Clouds and moisture will be on the increase across the Great
Basin later tomorrow and into the early morning hours on Friday.
This should set the stage for a cloudier and wetter day across
eastern Idaho on Friday. More on that below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Model ensembles show deep Pacific low centered just off the Oregon
coast Friday, beginning to shift inland as an open trough for the
weekend. Shower activity returns to East Idaho beginning Friday,
becoming more widespread during the weekend. Cold front passage
Saturday brings much cooler temperatures and breezy winds. The
cooler temperatures drop snow levels to around 6000 ft Saturday
night, with high end estimates holding snow levels around 8500 ft
across the southeast corner. Light accumulations are forecast
generally above 7000 ft through the weekend, with some chance that a
dusting will be possible down to valley floors in portions of the
central mountains and eastern highlands. Model means support the
next chance of freeze potential throughout the Snake Plain Sunday
night as the coldest air works into the region. The cold may be
somewhat short-lived, as flow turns southerly again with next
Pacific low deepening off the coast. Unsettled conditions are
expected to continue through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Clear to mostly clear skies continue into the early afternoon
hours Thursday. Things should remain clear today with some
mid/high level clouds moving in during the overnight hours
tonight and into Thursday AM. S/SW winds look to increase just a
touch today, around 10 kts, at all sites except KSUN where the
usual diurnal pattern should continue. Expect things to become
light and variable again overnight except at KSUN. Southerly
wind flow becomes more prominent tomorrow just beyond the 18Z
period ahead of an approaching system that will bring increased
cloud cover and precip very late Thursday and into Friday AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Will have mainly clear skies and very warm conditions today and
Thursday with the chance for showers returning Friday. Will see
a cold frontal passage Saturday with much colder conditions and
a significant drop in temperatures with a chance for showers
into next week with the colder temperatures continuing. Snow
levels will drop to the 5 to 6 thousand foot level Sunday
through Sunday night with some light accumulations in high
elevations. Expect breezier conditions Friday into Saturday with
winds southerly Friday shifting to a more southwesterly
direction Saturday behind the cold frontal passage.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ052.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...GK