132
FXUS65 KPIH 020847
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
147 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a brief relative cooldown Monday and Tuesday, the dry
  and warming trend returns through the end of the week.

- Inversions may break provided there is sufficient mixing
  Monday and Tuesday, but stagnant conditions will return for
  the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows mid/high level clouds
streaking over the eastern half of the area with clearing across
the western part of the state. As we move into the daylight
hours, clouds should be pretty limited with high pressure again
building over the region. This will keep things dry today with
temperatures continuing to run above normal for early February
by around 7-10 degrees. As we move into Tuesday, the
aforementioned ridge continues to amplify over the area allowing
temps to warm by a few more degrees compared to today. The only
change of note will be that a shortwave moving across Montana
and Wyoming will graze the region which COULD produce an
isolated shower around the Island Park area and maybe into the
Teton Valley. Hi-res CAMs aren`t overly impressed with the
chance for this but they at least show a signal so it`s at least
worth a mention. Otherwise, things will continue to remain
quiet across eastern Idaho with above normal temps expected to
linger into the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Second shortwave drops through northwest flow Monday night into
Tuesday, grazing the northeast portions of the forecast area.
Much like the Monday system, this one also contains little to no
moisture for most of the region. Similarly, the probability of
producing any snow accumulations more than a dusting are around
or less than 10%, and the forecast remains dry. For the
remainder of the work week, the ridge rebounds over the region,
returning East Idaho to a warming trend and potential stagnant
air mass. There is a hint of a potential change arriving by late
in the weekend. Ensemble and clusters hint at a pattern change
by late weekend as a deep Pacific trough moves inland and the
upper ridge shifts east. Current ensemble clusters show
significant spread regarding the details of this transition,
particularly given the amplified blocking pattern over the
Western U.S. The NBM introduces light precipitation late Sunday
at the end of the forecast period. Are we confident on this? Not
at all. Highly amplified blocking patterns can be hard to break
down, and models can be too aggressive in doing so especially
this far out in time. But it will be worth keeping on eye on
this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

A weak short wave is moving through the area currently. There
are currently slightly elevated winds for the Snake River plain
TAF sites. Also, there are mid-level broken clouds. Models
continue to show a very low chance of MVFR CIGS for our northern
areas. Thus, have left SCT030 for IDA, DIJ, and PIH. Expect
overall clearing and overall weak southwest winds for most sites
tomorrow afternoon. Model guidance is showing a northerly wind
shift for KIDA for 3 to 5 hours by mid tomorrow morning and
continuing into early to mid afternoon tomorrow. Just put
variable at 6 knots for IDA for now. High pressure starts
building back in by tomorrow afternoon and continues to get
stronger into Tuesday. Expect very light winds tomorrow evening.
Models do show mid to upper level clouds moving through the
high pressure ridging tomorrow evening. Guidance does show a
chance of fog for IDA tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Stagnation Advisory until noon MST today for IDZ054-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...TW