595
FXUS65 KPIH 090331
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
931 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures today.

- Warming trend develops Saturday and continues to Monday
  afternoon.

- Next low with a precipitation chance arrives Tuesday night or
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Behind yesterday`s cold front we are finally a bit cooler and just a
little breezy today. Temperatures will warm into the mid and upper
70s for many with wind gusts around 25 mph. It`ll be dry out there
this afternoon and evening with no thunderstorms expected. In fact,
we`re looking at a pretty dry and overall mild weekend, too, as we
remain in north/northwesterly flow aloft. Cloud cover will begin to
increase a bit on Saturday and highs will warm just a couple of
degrees, into the upper 70s and low 80s for most. Wind gusts on
Saturday will be nearly a repeat of today, around 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The second half of the weekend sees our warming trend continuing
with highs pushing into the mid 80s across the lower elevations of
most of Eastern Idaho as we remain dry. By Monday, we begin to see
highs reach the 90s once again. A shortwave trough moves into Idaho
on Tuesday and helps us return to zonal flow aloft. This will also
help temperatures warm and winds to increase. Look for highs to
reach the low to mid 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday with wind gusts
of 30 to 35 mph each afternoon. This change will also bring about
the return for rain chances beginning on Wednesday, but it`s a very
low confidence chance for the second half of the week at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 928 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Mostly clear skies and dry weather continue across the area for
the remainder of the evening and into the overnight. Will likely
see some mid/high level clouds as we move towards daybreak
Saturday and these will stick around for a good portion of the
day tomorrow but be of little impact. Wind gusts have diminished
and winds now remain around 10 kts and these will become even
lighter and generally variable into the overnight and early
morning. West to NW winds will reign by late morning tomorrow
and through much of the afternoon around 10 kts or so once again
becoming light after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A post-cold-front, northwest flow regime will remain in place today,
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, supporting cooler, dry, quiet
conditions across southeast Idaho with only light winds. A gradual
re-warming trend is expected each of these days, and while afternoon
minimum relative humidity values may be near or below 15 percent at
times (especially across the Arco Desert region and in some valleys
across the southern highlands)...the lack of wind will preclude any
critical fire weather concerns. The synoptic pattern starts to
change again Tuesday as flow over the depth of the atmospheric
column becomes more zonal and our next trough of low pressure starts
to develop upstream over the Pacific Northwest. West to southwest
winds near the surface ahead of the trough as well as a tightening
pressure gradient between the troughing to our northwest and high
pressure to our south will further increase temperatures back into
the 90s at lower elevations and start to increase our diurnal winds
each afternoon Tuesday through the rest of next week while the
environment remains dry, thus introducing our next chance of at
least localized critical fire weather conditions for winds/RH. We
may start to toss isolated dry thunderstorms back into the mix as
well...as least in some mountain ranges...Tuesday and beyond. In the
meantime...enjoy the relative break and a gorgeous weekend!

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...01