449
FXUS65 KPIH 240439
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1039 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend for the week, with above normal temperatures by
  Thursday.

- Weak low pressure moving through Tuesday and again Thursday
  may bring isolated thunderstorms to the area.

- Gusty afternoon wind Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Departing low had northerly air flow and made for a cold start
to the day, but the clear skies have allowed some strong
warming for this afternoon. The warming trend continues into the
weekend, so expect temperatures to be near seasonal normals by
Wed.

Two weak impulses move through, one on Tue, the next on Thu.
This should increase the wind, but not significantly. Also, it
may trigger some isolated thunderstorms on both afternoons.
There is also an isolated risk of dry thunderstorms for Wed
afternoon in the extreme northeast corner highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

After a risk of isolated thunderstorms along the ID-MT border on
Friday afternoon/evening, high pressure strengthens and the rest
of the period should be sunny and dry. Afternoon temperatures
below 5000ft elevation will be near 90 on Fri and level off
there for Sat/Sun. On Mon, the shift in upper level air flow to
more southerly pushes temperatures into the lower to middle 90s
in the lowest elevation. Gusty afternoon wind continues on Fri
and Sat, but the strengthening high pressure will mean terrain-
driven light wind, less than 12 mph sustained.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR to prevail through the overnight and into the day Tuesday.
Some mid/high clouds will likely streak into the region from the
south during the overnight and continuing into the first part
of the day tomorrow before slow clearing begins throughout the
day. Winds will remain light and generally variable through the
period. Will see some potential tomorrow afternoon for some
showers and storms to develop around KDIJ. Added some VCTS to
account for that but this appears to be the only location with
any concern for precip tomorrow. After 25/00Z clouds and precip
will begin to clear out with mostly clear skies likely for much
of Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

A drier pattern with warming trend remains on tap for this week,
with RH values dropping to 15-25% each afternoon. The best coverage
at or below 15% looks to target Zone 410 at times. Our first chance
of isolated thunderstorms arrives Tuesday afternoon and evening as a
weak shortwave lifts northeast out of the Great Basin, although the
HREF only reaches a 20% probability of thunder across portions of
Cassia County and the Teton Valley region north across Island Park,
and storm coverage leans sparse on the latest CAMs. Still watching
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for a more organized shortwave
bringing stronger winds each afternoon and perhaps a chance of at
least isolated thunderstorms, although coverage of sub-15% RHs is
very much in question for realizing critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...