088
FXUS65 KPIH 020011
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
611 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms through this evening will produce a
  mix of brief downpours and gusty winds

- The next chance of showers and storms is Wednesday into
  Thursday

- Temperatures return to ABOVE AVERAGE for the rest of this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Low pressure will finally shift out of Montana in the next 24
hours, bringing a brief respite from showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow and a good chunk of Wednesday. The best chance of rain
producing storms through this evening will be across the central
mountains and along the Montana border. Farther south and along
any outflow from storms, we may see isolated virga "showers" and
perhaps a few thunderstorms. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts
35-45 mph today, with a very small chance of gusts over 50 mph
with anything move out over the Snake Plain. Even though we are
not looking at any rain or thunder between lows, it does look
like we should see some afternoon clouds especially over the
mountains and given the time of year, the potential for virga.
It looks like the next storm for Wednesday-Thursday is far
enough north, that any potential for showers and storms is along
the Montana border, and just dry and breezy outside of that. The
pattern for the weekend and into next week is a bit more
muddled. It does look like the low moving in for the weekend
will split, but it is the usual idea of how strong the split
will be and what is left to influence our weather. It is around
a 55/45 split (pun intended) between this occurring across our
area and the main low dropping south of us, or taking place out
in the Pacific. The first scenario would keep us cooler and a
higher potential of showers and storms with tapping into some
moisture. The second will give us a quick shot of moisture over
the weekend, with the northern part of the split racing by into
southern Canada. The Blend of Models currently favors more of
the first scenario. Even then, the "coolest" day (Sunday) would
still be right around AVERAGE temperature-wise. Speaking of
temperatures, highs quickly bounce back into the 70s and 80s for
the next 7 days. The "warmest" days should be Wednesday, Friday,
and Saturday, where warmer spots will push toward the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Continue to see some gusty winds across the Snake Plain and into
the Teton Valley this evening but these should start to taper
off in the hours leading up to sunrise. Light and variable winds
expected overnight and becoming SW/W again during the late
morning / afternoon hours on Tuesday. Not expecting any precip
across the region tomorrow so VFR expected to prevail through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Expect isolated to scattered showers today. Most activity will
remain dry, although some of the showers across central Idaho
could result in some minor rain accumulation. Very dry air will
return areawide by Tuesday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...13