603
FXUS65 KPIH 020431
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1031 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures continue
  through most of the week.

- Patchy smoke will remain but conditions will gradually improve
  through week and, especially, the weekend.

- Thunderstorms will likely return to East Idaho by late week
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Satellite imagery shows shallow cumulus building over portions of
the central mountains the south hills this afternoon. So far any
vertical development of concern remains well west of the forecast
area south of I-84. There is still a hint of the potential for a
sprinkle or two possible but confidence remains very low and
forecast remains dry. There are still a few pockets of wildfire
smoke across the north, but with ridge axis continuing to build, the
southerly flow developing across the region should push most of the
smoke north. Have maintained patchy smoke overnight tonight in line
with HRRR smoke fields, but conditions are expected to improve by
tomorrow night. Otherwise minimal impacts are expected in the short
term, with daytime highs expected to range from the mid 80s to
around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Forecast trend remains in place with a ridge of high pressure
through most of the week. Ensembles vary slightly in breakdown of
the ridge ahead of energy ejecting out of the Pacific low. Moisture
begins to encroach into the region by the weekend, but there`s still
a non-zero chance to see a thunderstorm or two Wednesday and
Thursday. Thunderstorm chances increase Friday into the weekend,
with strong support from the model blends. Expect temperatures above
normal through Friday, turning cooler for the weekend associated
with the increase in moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 pM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We should see some
increase in mid level clouds especially at SUN and BYI tomorrow
afternoon, but not expecting any rain or thunder out of that. There
is little to no chance of gusty outflow winds based on some of the
higher resolution models and ensembles.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Dry air will remain in place through midweek, including
moderate to poor overnight recovery within the inversion layer.
Some mid level clouds COULD create a sprinkle, but strong wind
gust potential is VERY LOW (around 10% at best for gusts over 35
mph) based on the higher resolution ensemble model data.
Through the latter half of the week and into the weekend,
monsoon moisture will be on the increase. The better chance of
storms will hold off until the weekend, until then expected
isolated coverage of showers and storms. It might be until the
weekend that we see enough moisture for a better mix of wet and
dry storms, or at least switching that mix to more wet than dry.


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Preston
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes
AIR QUALITY...DMH