546
FXUS65 KPIH 161101
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
501 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for
  more showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day
  with the most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A couple of lingering thunderstorms are finally fizzling early
this morning. We should see a break for a bit until early in the
afternoon, when the next surge of monsoon moisture arrives.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
last into this evening. There is a 30-70% chance of for gusts
over 35 mph reaching potentially 55-60 mph. There is a MARGINAL
RISK for severe thunderstorms across the central mountains south
through the Magic Valley to the Utah border. This matches the
highest potential area for stronger gusts, but it is likely any
storm (especially where it remains a bit drier at the surface or
can get a stronger storm to form) will see that potential. There
will likely be lingering showers and even a couple of thunderstorms
past midnight. Right now, we have any chance under 10% but that
may need to be bumped up in later forecasts if this trend
continues. We will see a repeat tomorrow with a more widespread
chance of showers and thunderstorms as the main push of monsoon
moisture is across Idaho. We will need to monitor how overnight
precipitation and cloud cover impact the pattern tomorrow
morning. If we have a lot of lingering clouds, we may easily end
up where it is too stable for a lot of thunderstorms, or vice-
versa. With this surge of deeper moisture, we will see a mix of
dry and rain-producing thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, should see
overall better potential for measurable rainfall and locally
heavy rainfall IF we can get stronger storms to develop. Higher
instability would also push the risk of outflow winds over 35
mph higher. Right now, it is sitting in the 50-80% range.

A system passing to our north, pushes the deeper monsoon
moisture briefly to our east again over the weekend. It will not
be enough to completely drop any chance of showers or storms
especially for Sunday. The pattern reloads as the ridge shifts
back to the west and pulls the deeper overall plume of moisture
across Idaho. There are some indications that it may push the
main plume back to our west enough that we see lower chances of
showers and storms each day, but still not a zero chance if that
does happen. Temperatures remain ABOVE AVERAGE through the
forecast with 90s for afternoon highs. On days where cloud cover
is more extensive, highs may stay in the 80s which is still
warmer than we should be this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 457 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

We will see increasing monsoon moisture by later morning and
continuing through the evening hours, at the very least. We are
carrying VCSH with PROB30 for thunderstorms will strong wind
gusts during that period. For now, we expect VFR weather...BUT a
heavier downpour could produce lower FR conditions. The question
is what happens overnight. There seems to be a stark difference
in what could occur. Some higher resolution models keep more
cloud cover and/or showers and storms going. Others are
basically the opposite. With no real trend to lean on, we did
keep some mid level cloud cover in place with nothing indicating
any chance of rain or thunder overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The monsoon pattern reloads today and tomorrow with a deeper
surge of monsoon moisture arriving, especially for Friday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop early
this afternoon and continue through this evening. Coverage
doesn`t necessarily look scattered on a widespread basis, but we
do expect some areas to hit that threshold. There are currently
no RED FLAG WARNINGS out for scattered thunderstorms for central
and eastern Idaho today, but that will have to be looked at
later this morning. There is a 30-70% chance of for outflow
winds over 35 mph, trying to peak at 50-60 mph. Higher
probabilities are concentrated across the central mountains, and
across southern Idaho (413/425/427). It is likely that any
stronger storm across central and eastern Idaho has the
potential. The question will be overnight/Friday morning
showers and isolated thunderstorms. A couple of the higher
resolution models want to hold on to that potential past
midnight and through part of tomorrow morning, while others want
to rapidly end things around midnight. We do have a 15% chance
of less of showers or storms during this period, but that may
need to be bumped up if the trend shows higher confidence in
something overnight. Tomorrow looks like the best day through
the weekend for showers and thunderstorms, with the deepest
moisture across the state at that time. Thunderstorm coverage
tomorrow will be higher, but a couple of things to go along with
that are 1) tomorrow has a much better chance of wetting rains
especially across higher elevations, and 2) it is highly
dependent on the amount of morning sunshine. If we have more
morning cloud cover that expected, it will be less unstable and
would cut down on lightning potential. That also would cut down
on the possibility of locally heavy rainfall. The chance of
wetting rain for today is no higher than 30% in some areas. For
Friday, it is running 20-60% over most of central and eastern
Idaho.

A system passing to our north temporarily pushes the main plume
of monsoon moisture south and east of us by Sunday. We still are
looking for some shower and thunderstorm development even with
that occurring. This would trend things back toward a mix of wet
and dry storms. The ridge shifts back west early next week,
pulling the main plume of moisture back across Idaho. This will
keep the stormy pattern in place for a while. Temperatures
remain ABOVE AVERAGE even on days where we might have a bit more
cloud cover.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes