793
FXUS65 KPIH 072014
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
214 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and mid-high elevation snow showers through tomorrow.

- Very windy Tuesday in the Snake River Plain. Wind Advisory in
effect.

- Colder Tuesday, but temperatures rebound through the end of the
week with record or near-record highs possible Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Satellite imagery shows negative tilt shortwave axis pushing into
East Idaho this afternoon. Radar continues to spread scattered
returns east across the forecast area, but few sites reporting
precipitation so far, likely due to very steep surface dew point
depressions especially across the Snake Plain. QPF values have
trended down yet again, and have made some additional modifications
where terrain artifacts appear to have artificially spiked forecast
values. Result is even lower QPF and snow forecast as compared to
previous days. Still can`t discount a stray lightning strike or two
but instability remains weak. Biggest threat from showers through
the evening would be gusty winds, especially considering the dry
lower levels. Frontal passage this evening shifts flow westerly.
Temperatures remain mild overnight due to cloud cover and ongoing
isolated shower activity, but turn much colder Tuesday. Isolated
showers continue, mainly higher elevations. Winds also increase
dramatically, especially across northern portions of the Snake
Plain. Have issued a Wind Advisory for the Arco Desert, Upper Snake
Plain, and Lower Snake Plain, though the Lower Snake Plain is the
least confident of the three zones. Some blowing dust concerns for
portions of the Upper Snake/Arco Desert where agricultural activity
may have already begun for the season. Biggest concern would be for
areas along I-15 north of Idaho Falls. Kept patchy blowing dust for
the Advisory area, especially where forecast gusts exceed about 30
mph. Cold temperatures continue overnight Tuesday night, where lower
elevations especially north of US 26 are likely to reach or drop
below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Wednesday will remain breezy across the region although probably a
touch lower than what is expected for the day on Tuesday. Some
additional Wind Advisories are POSSIBLE but certainly not a slam dunk
by the looks of things. Looks like any precip will be shifted to our
north by that point as high pressure starts to build over the area
throughout the day. At this point, a couple of pleasant days are
expected with high pressure in firm control and temperatures will
likely climb to 10-20 degrees above normal across the region. The
current forecast calls for temperatures throughout the Snake Plain
and Magic Valley to climb well into the 70s on Thursday and Friday.
Friday will likely be the warmest day and some spots could flirt
with the 80 degree mark and some record high temperatures appear in
jeopardy for Friday. Beyond this point is where forecast confidence
disappears as model solutions and associated ensemble clusters show
a variety of potential solutions. It does appear the ridge will
start to shift east giving way to an upper level trough across the
Pacific NW. The timing, depth and placement of the aforementioned
trough ultimately remains unknown although 12Z GFS/ECMWF
deterministic runs have this feature sweeping north of the area
bringing a return to a cooler, wetter pattern on Sunday, potentially
into Monday. Still a lot of uncertainty however so the forecast
doesn`t deviate from the NBM solution but do expect adjustments over
the days ahead based on how things ultimately shake out amongst the
models.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Clouds are on the increase across the region this morning as a
trough across the Pacific NW will bring a weak system to the north
of the area. Winds are on the increase as well ahead of this system
with gusty S/SW winds in place around KBYI, KIDA and soon to impact
KIDA. Some rain showers will likely impact KSUN over the next few
hours and then the focus will shift towards the rest of the area as
we get into the evening and overnight. Hi-res models remain rather
hit or miss with precip as nothing overly organized is expected so
have just maintained VCSH wording accordingly. If a stronger shower,
or even a very isolated tstm chance, appears likely than some TEMPOs
may be needed. Most of the precip should taper off during the
overnight but could linger around KDIJ into the daylight hours
Tuesday. Winds will increase once again tomorrow, becoming quite
breezy, with the strongest winds just beyond the current TAF period
but expect some gusts 20-30 kts everywhere tomorrow, closer to 15-25
kts around KSUN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for IDZ052>054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan