369
FXUS65 KPIH 060041
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
541 PM MST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow expected through Friday

- Gusty winds at times likely

- Warmer and mostly dry conditions return starting this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Wed Nov 5 2025

Rain and snow is quickly moving in this afternoon, with the main
band during round one shifting into the eastern and southeast
highlands overnight. Expect pockets of showers on the back side
of the first event elsewhere especially in the central
mountains. Round 2 arrives late tomorrow evening and continues
into Friday. While not necessarily widespread and not all the
time with both storms, we will see gusts in the 25-35 mph range
throughout this period in the forecast. Little to no impacts
expected, even combined with snow due to warmer conditions and
not being powdery snow up in the mountains. The current trends
are to increase rain and snow amounts with the first event, and
drop them a bit with the second one. Our concern is that the
higher resolution modes might be a bit heavy-handed especially
with the speed of the storm. Common amounts in the higher
elevations of the east and southeast highlands and central
mountains are in the 0.30-0.60" range. Higher amounts are
possible in the Sawtooths but again concern is the higher
resolution models producing too much moisture. If you look at
probability forecasts, there is a big cutoff before hitting 1.0"
totals. That would indicate that anything over 0.60 or
potentially 0.67-0.75" is pushing it. That said, we can`t rule
that out especially if things remain showery vs more steady...or
if we get a thunderstorm to develop. Amounts down low are
basically anywhere from a couple hundredths to between
0.15-0.20". That seems reasonable based on trends and
probability forecasts. With the second low, totals have trended
to between 0.10-0.30" for the mountains and less than 0.10" for
valley locations. However, there is a 40-60% chance of exceeding
0.30" in the Sawtooths and Tetons/Big Holes and 15-30% chance
of exceeding 0.50". Temperatures tomorrow will be about 10
degrees cooler across the board in between storms. Looking at
impacts from snowfall, limited travel impacts are expected over
higher passes even at Galena Summit...and the is mainly with the
first round of snowfall. Higher snowfall amounts (over 6") are
not likely until you get above 9000ft.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Wed Nov 5 2025

Friday looks to be the last wet day for awhile as a weak shortwave
moves well to the north of the region across the panhandle and into
western Montana. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient over
the region keeping breezy conditions in place for much of the day on
Friday. Temperatures will remain around seasonal levels, mid 40s to
lower 50s, across the area but precip will be a factor for much of
the day. Light valley rain and mountain snow are expected but
forecast QPF remains low so only a few inches of accumulation is
expected across the highest peaks of the central mountains and
eastern highlands with totals an inch or less around Stanley and
Island Park. Models remain confident on an upper level ridge
building over the area for the weekend and early next week in the
wake of the aforementioned shortwave. Upper flow remains out of the
NW for much of the weekend but begins to become more westerly near
the conclusion of the weekend and then more southwest as we move
into the upcoming work week. Sunday daytime highs should creep a few
degrees above normal with even more warming expected Monday and into
the middle part of next week. Valley temps in the upper 50s to even
lower 60s appear likely which is quite mild for early to mid
November. Pattern looks to stay dry through mid week; after which
the models seem to lose faith in the upper level pattern leading to
much more uncertainty for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MST Wed Nov 5 2025

Incoming front is bringing wind already and weather radar
indicates SHRA is incoming for the mid- to late evening hours
tonight. This should bring a high risk of marginal VFR for CIGs
for all the airdromes, and marginal VFR for VSBY at KDIJ. The
risk develops at KBYI first and spreads eastward to KPIH and
KIDA, then finally KDIJ. KDIJ also has a risk of IFR. KSUN will
also get marginal VFR but it should hold off until the airdrome
closes, and then improve just as it opens in the morning.

Except for KSUN, the other four airports should have gusty wind
issues. The main concern for KSUN may be some low level
windshear, depending on how the surface wind develops. Wind
should slowly veer around the compass dial from the mainly
southerly to southwesterly to west southwesterly.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Messick