862
FXUS65 KPIH 221052
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
452 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions through Saturday.

- Wildfire smoke across east Idaho improves today.

- Monsoon moisture lifting north late Saturday into Sunday will
  support the return of daily shower and thunderstorm chances
  into early next week as temperatures trend cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Forecast looks dry and warm today. The 3km NAM is showing a few
returns across the southern highlands today, but think this is most
likely just afternoon cu development and the chances for rainfall
look very low, to the point that the forecast will not include a
mention. Temps look a couple degrees warmer today, generally looking
at low 90s across the Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Valley
with upper 80s to around 90 for the mountain and highland
communities. Smoke situation looks improved over yesterday for much
of the region. The HRRR still holds onto some smoke today from the
upper Snake highlands to the INL region. Air quality is probably not
an issue, maybe temporarily reaching into the moderate category.
Most likely may appear as more of a haze. However, the smoke could
be more noticeable in the Challis and Stanley areas today with the
winds carrying smoke from the north Idaho wildfires through there
today. Although much of the smoke could be east of there by late
afternoon. Winds today look unimpressive with peak gusts today in
the 10 to 20 mph range. Dry weather will likely continue through the
night with mostly clear skies and light winds. Overnight lows
generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most communities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The weekend begins with continued well above normal
temperatures as H5 heights top out on Saturday as a large area
of high pressure centered near the Four Corners region keeps its
hold on regional weather. This should lead to mostly clear
skies, no precipitation and daytime highs in the low to mid 90s
across the lower elevations. The pattern begins to change late
in the day Saturday and especially Sunday where more moisture
begins to surge into the region thus increasing cloud cover and
rain chances starting on Sunday and continuing throughout the
remainder of the extended portion of the forecast. Precipitable
water values climb throughout the upcoming workweek and look to
be around an inch, or more, for much of the area which is
abnormally high for this part of the country. This should set
the stage for our first decent stretch of wetting rainfall in
quite some time. Tuesday through Thursday looks to be the best
period for seeing wetting rainfall across the area. It`s a bit
too early to get caught up in specifics but confidence continues
to increase in our prolonged dry stretch coming to an end at
some point next week. There remains some model spread with
regards to temperatures next week due to model uncertainty on
clouds, precip, etc so expect to see some fluctuations over the
next few forecasts until model spread begins to decrease, at
least in theory.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows some mid/high level clouds
streaking across across the area and this will likely be the
extent of the cloud cover for the area today. VFR conditions to
prevail through the period with winds generally 10 kts or less,
except at KSUN where some gusts closer to 15 kt appear likely
later this afternoon. No precipitation is expected today with
winds becoming light and variable as we move into the early
morning hours Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through
Saturday. The dry air will lead to some pretty poor humidity
recovery at night within the thermal belt, with most areas seeing
afternoon values at 15% or less. It doesn`t look like any issues are
expected with critical weather conditions as wind remains fairly
light. We will likely see some virga/sprinkles in the higher
elevations across the higher elevations closer to the Utah border
(413 and 427) during this period. This is on the northern edge of
monsoon moisture continuing to rotate through northern Nevada and
Utah into Wyoming. We will see the entire pattern shifting north
starting Sunday and lasting into next week. We should see showers
and thunderstorms returning Sunday, especially along and south of
the Snake River. Throughout next week, monsoon moisture increases
across the area. This is the first real push of a true monsoon surge
into eastern Idaho this year. This pattern looks to stick around
throughout the week, with the possibility of things winding down
next weekend. This means the potential for wetting rain will be on
the rise, especially after Monday. If current trends hold, wetting
rains may be likely in the mountains...especially across 413 and
427. There is also a low to moderate chance of over 0.50" in those
areas in any given 24 hour period.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes