548
FXUS65 KPIH 302042
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
242 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through the weekend, primarily each afternoon and
  evening in the mountains. Stronger storms will be capable of
  producing gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  storms, supporting elevated fire weather conditions due to a
  combination of low relative humidity and breezy winds.

- Temperatures will remain near/above normal again today, with a
  gradual cooling trend starting Thursday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025
A series of shortwaves will bring a continuation of daily chances
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region. Greatest
chances for showers and thunder will be across the high terrain,
with HREF probability of thunder ranging 30 to 70 percent across the
central mountains, MT Divide region, and along the ID-WY border. The
strongest storms will be capable of small hail and gusts to around
50 mph, with HREF ensemble max gusts indicated across the central
mountains, upper Snake River Plain, and eastern Magic Valley this
afternoon and evening. For tomorrow, max wind gusts look to be a bit
stronger, with gusts to around 60 mph suggested across the eastern
Magic Valley before expanding up the Snake River Plain heading
further into Thursday afternoon. Ensembles show PWATs generally
running 0.70" and below both days, meaning the probability that
storms will be capable of heavy downpours is low. Outside of
thunderstorm gusts, winds will likely gust to 20 to 30 mph each
afternoon areawide. Temperatures will run several degrees above
normal again today before dropping to right around climatological
norms beginning Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The unsettled pattern will keep our daily highs running several
degrees below climatological norms late this week through the first
part of next week. Ensembles continue to indicate PWATs running
0.70" and below throughout the extended timeframe as well, keeping
the probability of heavy downpours low. Similarly, winds each
afternoon are expected to gust 20 to 30 mph through the period.
Beginning Wednesday, ensembles predominantly suggest high pressure
will regain control of our local weather pattern as a ridge
amplifies over the Southwest. Around 80% of 500mb ensemble cluster
solutions indicate this pattern change by around middle of next
week, while 15 to 20 percent or so suggest troughing over Idaho come
that time. The National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast also brings
high temperatures back to right around normal with drier conditions
by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing today. That said, we are
expecting more isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
area once again this afternoon and evening. The best chance is
at DIJ where the 24-hour HREF thunder probability shows about a
60 to 70 percent chance. At SUN there is about a 30 to 40
percent chance and about a 30 percent chance at IDA. Given those
probabilities, have kept the PROB30 in for those three sites.
It is more likely for a storm to pass over DIJ, but SUN and IDA
will see more of a potential for impacts from gusty outflows
from nearby storms. The chance for a storm at BYI and PIH is
lower, closer to about a 10 percent chance. Get ready for
another repeat on Thursday, though the areas most likely to see
a storm will chance slightly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are just beginning to fire up
once again this afternoon. The scattered thunderstorms will be
mainly confined to parts of the Central Mountains - Fire Weather
Zones 475 and 476 - where fuels are still approaching critical.
Storms will be isolated to nearly scattered in zone 411 this
afternoon. Storms today will once again be capable of producing
gusts of 50 to 55 mph, small hail, and brief downpours. outside of
these storms, it remains dry and hot throughout the rest of Eastern
Idaho with min RHs in the single digits to upper teens and highs in
the 80s and 90s. Wind gusts today are still ranging from 15 to 25
mph.

A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for FWZ 422 and 427
tomorrow, July 31st, from 2 to midnight for scattered thunderstorms
and gusty outflow winds. Throughout Eastern Idaho, we will see
another afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms with outflows
up to 55 mph, small hail, and brief downpours. The better coverage
in Zones 422 and 427 tomorrow is what prompted the Red Flag Warning.
Fire weather conditions will be critical in zones 475 and 476 due to
scattered coverage, too, but will continue to hold off on any Red
Flag issuance since fuels are still "approaching critical" in these
two zones. Thunderstorm coverage is isolated to nearly scattered in
Zone 411, so have held off there, too, for now. We will continue to
evaluate each day for Red Flag potential as these isolated to
scattered thunderstorms continue each afternoon. As we go through
the week and more moisture moves into the area, we will see some
very small improvements in min RHs and a very small drop in
afternoon highs each day.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
night for IDZ422-427.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM