416
FXUS65 KPIH 091102
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
502 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front passage this morning with localized gusty winds.

- Good chance for widespread showers and storms today into
  Wednesday morning

- Drying and warming trends along with breezy conditions later
  in the week through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Satellite and radar imagery shows a shortwave trough/cold front
moving through the area currently. This front is associated with
very strong 700mb jet, and a negatively tilted 500mb shortwave
axis.  Any convection associated with the front will likely be
mostly virga with little precipitation, but strong gusty winds
will be briefly possible with passage of this cold front. HRRR
forecast surface gusts have exceeded 45kts at times, suggesting
that isolated gusts associated with frontal passage may exceed
50 mph at times. However, most gusts will likely remain in the
35-40 mph range, as HREF probabilities only support a 35-50%
chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph with frontal passage. Behind
the front, showers steadily increase the potential for rainfall
to reach the ground by sunrise. Post-frontal showers are
expected most areas during the day Tuesday, with most of East
Idaho expected to see wetting rains over 0.10" by midnight today
and a greater than 75% chance for 0.25" or more across the
Sawtooths, Frank Church, and higher elevations in the southern
and eastern highlands. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms, especially in the eastern highlands Tuesday
afternoon, with strong gusty winds and small hail. Strong winds
are forecast in the northern portions of the Snake Plain during
the day Tuesday behind the main front, and a WIND ADVISORY has
been continued for the INL east to Idaho Falls and Rexburg,
along with a LAKE WIND ADVISORY for American Falls Reservoir.

Shortwave shifts east overnight today, but second weak feature
drives across the panhandle into Montana during the day
Wednesday. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible mainly across the Island Park region. Strong
westerly winds are forecast for the Eastern Magic Valley and
Lower Snake Plain, and another WIND ADVISORY will likely be
needed Wednesday. Expect cold temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. A frost advisory may be needed on Wednesday
(to a lesser degree) and Thursday mornings across the Shoshone,
Arco Desert, Snake Plain, and Eastern Magic valley growing
zones with temperature 33 to 36 degrees likely. Dry westerly
flow is expected Thursday into the early weekend, gradually
shifting to northwest flow as a ridge of high pressure builds
into the coastal states. There is potential for a shortwave to
drop through Montana late Saturday into Sunday, but moisture
appears to stay too far northeast to impact the region. Breezy
winds will be possible. Temperatures rebound back into the upper
70s to mid 80s Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A cold front is moving through the area currently bringing
showers to all TAF sites. Expect mostly VFR conditions. Brief
MVFR conditions could occur with heavier showers on station.
Have removed PROB30 groups for TSTMS for all sites with this
cold front passage. Have left VCTS in for this afternoon for
DIJ. Non-thunderstorm gusty winds are still expected for all TAF
sites this afternoon behind the cold front. Expect clearing
skies by this afternoon for all sites but DIJ and SUN. These
sites will likely clear out this evening. Expect winds to drop
off this evening for all TAF sites but still remain elevated
with 10 to 15 kts. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Today expect strong winds gusts (35 to 50 mph) with increased
RHs (min RHs of 25 to 60%) with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms with wetting rains possible for higher
elevations. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday
mainly for Fire Weather zone 411 with a weak shortwave dropping
over our northeastern areas. Expect gusty winds Wednesday as
well with gusts of 25 to 45 mph likely. High temperatures will
be in the 50s and 60s today and Wednesday.

Look for drying and warming trends along with breezy conditions
Thursday, Friday, and through the weekend. Temperatures will
rise back to the 70s and 80s for daytime highs. Min RHs will
drop back below 25% across the area for mountain areas and below
15% for the Snake Plain, Eastern Magic Valley and our southwest
areas (fire weather zones 410, 425, 427, and portions of 413).

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for IDZ052-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TW
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...TW