786
FXUS65 KPIH 290340
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
940 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and storms around through
  Wednesday and possibly into Thursday

- Hotter temperatures and very dry conditions return heading
  into the weekend, including Heat Risk impacts. Saturday
  expected to be hottest day with many locations at 100 degrees.

- Critical to near-criticial fire weather conditions expected
  for the next several days

- Wildfire smoke will continue to produce poor air quality
  especially in areas closer to central and western Idaho

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Will continue to have isolated to widely scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Most will
be in higher elevations. Expect drying to move in Thursday
through early next week. Smoke is not as widespread as Monday
but still enough around especially in western areas to keep air
quality advisories in effect in many areas. Will be slightly
cooler tomorrow but will see significant warming Thursday
through Saturday with many low elevations around 100 degrees by
Saturday once again. Begin to lose southwest flow aloft by
Sunday into early next week, so that should eliminate any
monsoonal moisture for awhile. Will have very low humidity with
windy conditions in many areas Sunday as system moves through
cooling temperatures a bit. Monday expected to be coolest day in
long term with near normal numbers for a rare occurrence this
summer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Models show another round of virga showers arriving towards
morning. Have introduced VCSH at most locations for the morning.
Still kept SUN dry for now with the thinking that the better
moisture will remain south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For a multitude of reasons, we are looking for critical to near-
critical fire weather conditions for the next several days.
We do expected another round of thunderstorms later today and into
this evening. Isolated storms are expected across Zone 476 and
extending along the Montana border through Zone 411. A second area
of storms will form across higher terrain across Zones 413 and 427,
extending up through the Tetons. Coverage will be borderline
scattered down south with gusts over 35 mph possible especially with
the more southerly storms. Storms to the north will be mostly dry,
with more of a wet/dry mix down south. We will also be borderline
for a warning due to winds and low humidity across the central
mountains, with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. One last surge of
monsoon moisture will keep showers, and may a thunderstorm or two,
around tonight...increasing during the day Wednesday. Coverage
tomorrow will be highly dependent on two things: cloud breaks after
morning cloud cover and smoke.

Starting Thursday, we are will see hotter and drier conditions
return. We may see a few dry storms over the mountains Thursday, but
it looks bone dry after that heading through the weekend and into
next week. We will see near-critical conditions Thursday due to wind
and low humidity across the mountains. Expect more of the same
Friday and Saturday. The bigger impacts those day will likely be a
return to hotter temperatures. Crews in the mountains will be in the
70s to near 90. Valley temperatures will be in the mid 90s to mid
100s. Look for increasing heat-related issues during this short
stretch. Cooler weather will return starting Sunday, HOWEVER, this
pattern change will not bring back monsoon moisture it appears. This
is the typical ridge breakdown pattern, as low pressure skirting by
brings the cooler conditions, but also stronger winds and a
continued very dry airmass in place. Any monsoon push should remain
to our south as the flow turns westerly vs southwesterly.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Air quality has improved across the eastern half of the region
and some of the Air Quality Advisories have been canceled
accordingly but still linger across the western half which
includes the Magic Valley, parts of the Arco Desert and
throughout the central mountains. See the alerts from Idaho DEQ
for additional information.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051-052-
055>057-067>075.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan
AIR QUALITY...Keyes