949
FXUS65 KPIH 121910
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
110 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers dissipate this evening with most areas dry through
  Monday.

- One night of cold temperatures tonight, with Frost Advisory
  and Freeze Warning for the Snake River Plain.

- Warmer Monday with showers returning for Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Upper level trough remains across the PacNW and East Idaho today per
satellite imagery. Area webcams and surface observations indicate a few
showers remain across the region, with observed snow levels between
6000 and 7000 ft. Gusty southwest winds through the Snake Plain
expected to continue into the evening, becoming a locally gusty
down-valley northerly wind overnight. While showers continue to
weaken and dissipate most areas for tonight, temperatures drop in the
cold air behind the frontal system. Have issued a Frost Advisory for
the Eastern Magic Valley/Shoshone region, and a Freeze Warning for
the Upper and Lower Snake Plain and Arco/Mud Lake Desert regions
for tonight. Upper trough re-amplifies along the coast Monday, with
upper flow once again turning southerly during the day Monday. Drier
flow in place for most of the day, but showers may return for the
evening and overnight as the deep southerly flow taps some of the
tropical remnants currently impacting the Desert Southwest.
Temperatures for Monday night should warm several degrees above
freezing under the influence of the increased southerly flow and
moisture, and do not anticipate additional Frost or Freeze headlines
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Rain, snow and thunderstorms return starting Tuesday and last
through the end of the workweek. We remain in strong southerly
flow ahead of the low on Tuesday. We will likely low to mid 60s
in warmer spots, especially where we can get downslope winds to
aid with any warming and counter increasing
clouds/precipitation. the best days for precipitation will be
Wednesday and thursday, although Tuesday afternoon and evening
are starting to look pretty wet across our area. As we`ve done
the past couple of days, let`s dig into some of the "what if
forecasts" vs the official Blend of Models forecast. Highs both
of those days with our official forecast will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s down low. The lower end of the Blend forecasts has
highs never getting out of the 40s. In terms of lows both days,
the official forecasts is dropping down into the 30s with many
spots close enough to 32 for a least a mix of rain and snow for
lowest valley spots. The colder end of the Blend of Models would
definitely have snow falling (maybe not accumulating) at all
elevations in eastern Idaho. If we can get the colder scenario
that is still depicted in the ensembles (which help feed the
Blend "what if forecasts"), it could be the first snowflakes of
the season for some of our more populated cities. Precipitation
amounts this early on show 0.30-0.80" over 72 hours for lower
elevations, with a 10-40% chance of exceeding that (location
dependent). For the mountains, the official forecast right now
puts us at 1.0-1.5" for most ranges, with around 2" for the Big
Holes and Tetons. There is a less than 10% chance we exceed 2"
there at the moment. We should get another break on Saturday,
with the chance of precipitation back sometime early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

We are seeing some fluctuation between VFR to IFR today due
lingering showers and lower ceilings overall due to some areas
getting precipitation over the weekend. We also still see
pockets of gusts of 20-30kts that will last until early evening.
While there is some hint we lose most of the current low and mid
level cloud cover, we are afraid to lose that entirely. The
concern is that low level moisture isn`t being handled properly.
Therefore we maintained some low cloud cover (flirting with
MVFR/IFR thresholds in terms of AMOUNT of cloud cover overnight
and Monday morning. Probability forecasts are almost nothing,
which isn`t instilling confidence our forecast is a big step in
the right direction. That said, we will stick with the idea of
some amount of low cloudiness. BYI would be the overall
exception due to persistent easterly/downplain wind. Some
semblance of lighter winds or potential upslope conditions is
there, including SUN. Speaking of SUN, this pattern doesn`t
look very conducive to a full blown switch to a typical
northerly wind overnight. They likely go variable or stay
southerly with an increase in speed later Monday. This would be
conducive to keep lower clouds in place especially with any
stratus that hangs around south of Hailey and into the Magic
Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Very cold today with some rain and snow showers in zones 411,
475, 476 and 422 but minimal amounts. Will see mainly dry
conditions overnight and Monday as flow aloft turns southerly
again with significant warming with high temperatures 10 to 15
degrees warmer Monday than today. Rain showers will return
Monday night with more significant precipitation on Wednesday
and Thursday with snow levels in the 7 to 8 thousand foot range.
But will have widespread wetting rains once again everywhere
and will see significant cooling again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Monday for
IDZ051-055.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Monday for
IDZ052>054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...GK