745
FXUS65 KPIH 241715
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1115 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of terrain-based storms each afternoon.

- Mostly dry for the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain.

- Warming trend continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

While we still have some troughing over the eastern half of
Idaho early today, high pressure is going to do its best to
build back in over the area. Radar early this morning does show
some showery activity lifting out of northeastern Utah into
extreme southeastern Idaho, but there`s not much other activity
expected today. That said, as we continue heating and warm back
into the 60s and 70s, there is a small chance (less than 20%)
for a couple showers or storms firing off the terrain this
afternoon in the Eastern and Southeastern Highlands this
afternoon. Temperatures overnight into Sunday morning will only
drop into the low and mid 40s, setting us up to warm nicely on
Sunday afternoon. Highs will reach the low 80s in the eastern
Magic Valley with mid to upper 70s throughout the Snake River
Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

The extended forecast next week is shaping up to be a summer-
like pattern with increasing confidence supporting above normal
temperatures and mostly dry conditions, outside of daily
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that will peak
in coverage each afternoon and evening. Dry conditions and sunny
skies are expected to kickoff Memorial Day ahead of a H5 trough
building in by the afternoon and evening, supporting increased
cloud cover along with shower and thunderstorm chances that will
continue into Tuesday. This system will help drop temperatures
a few degrees for Tuesday but for both days, we are still
looking at highs in the 70s and 80s each day. By midweek, high
pressure looks to regain some strength, leading to warmer
temperatures to finish out the week with ample daytime heating
supporting daily, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances. The
bulk of activity is expected to remain in the mountains each day
but isolated activity will still remain possible in the
valleys. Highs towards the end of next week will climb to the
upper 70s to upper 80s with a 10-30% chance of reaching 90
degrees across the Lower Snake River Plain and eastern Magic
Valley starting Thursday. Bottom line-as the unofficial "start
to summer" begins this holiday weekend, seems Mother Nature is
falling in line with summer like temperatures looking
increasingly likely for the last week of May and heading into
June. No big changes to this overall pattern are expected into
early June at this point with warm and predominantly dry
conditions favored to stick around.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

No impacts are expected aviation wise through Sunday. High
pressure aloft moves overhead by Sunday afternoon and expect
clear skies and winds under 10 knots at all sites through Sunday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Generally warm and dry conditions are expected today. There
will be a small chance (less than 20%) for a couple of showers
or storms firing off the terrain this afternoon. Temperatures
will be warming into the mid 70s to low 80s in the eastern Magic
Valley and Snake River Plain with min RHs around 20 to 25
percent. Storm chances slowly increase for Sunday and Monday
afternoon with activity on Sunday mainly confined to the Eastern
Highlands with some more widespread potential on Monday
afternoon. Wind gusts will be around 20 mph today and Sunday
with some gusts closer to 30 mph on Monday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...AMM