070
FXUS65 KPIH 100748
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
148 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings for the Central Mountains and the Snake
  River plain/Shoshone region Monday afternoon into early
  evening due to low relative humidity and breezy winds.

- Very small chance for an isolated (virga) shower or storm
  Monday afternoon, mainly in the South Hills.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for
  the next few days. Expect decreased air quality at times with
  an air quality advisory remaining in effect for Custer County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The leading edge of monsoon moisture will be over the southern
highlands today. Expect another round of isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon there. Otherwise, warm and breezy conditions are
likely today with gusts of 20 to 30 mph common across much of
the region. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s for many
of our valley communities.

Another round of isolated thunderstorms across the southern
highlands is possible Tuesday afternoon. High temps look slightly
cooler with more clouds expected across the region. The bigger push
of moisture doesn`t arrive until Tuesday Night into Wednesday. With
a fair amount of clouds around on Wednesday, highs will probably
stay in the mid to upper 80s. Although we may have too much clouds
for much thunderstorm development.

Thursday looks very active as a trough pushes into the region.
Scattered thunderstorms is expected and some of those storms could
produce some heavy rainfall. We remain in the southwesterly monsoon
flow into Friday. Debatable of how much storm coverage we actually
have on Friday with quite a bit of moisture moving through the
region. Still, the threat for heavy rain from thunderstorms exists
if we can get storms to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Will monitor smoke impacts on visibility today with another
push of smoke expected to arrive. This plume doesn`t look as
strong as previous plumes so expecting visibility to hold above
5SM but there`s a 20-30% chance that it could fall into the MVFR
category. If that happens, it would be most likely this morning
with vertical mixing expected to help diffuse the smoke this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Red flag warnings are in effect for today for parts of the
central mountains, Snake River Plain, and eastern Magic Valley
where the combination of critical humidity and wind gusts of 20
to 30 mph will produce dangerous fire conditions. Isolated
storms are likely across the southern highlands once again this
afternoon. Wind gusts look a little less on Tuesday at this
time.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 209 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

An Air Quality Advisory remains in effect for Custer County
through Monday afternoon due to air quality expected to remain
in the "moderate" to "unhealthy for sensitive groups"
categories.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ410-425-475-476.
Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ068>074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13
AIR QUALITY...AMM