939
FXUS65 KPIH 070230
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
830 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures return, with record or near-record highs by
Saturday.

- A few showers and storms possible later in the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

A mix of clouds and sun on tap today per satellite imagery as
lingering mid level moisture rotates around upper low the south. Any
precipitation associated with this low looks to remain confined to
areas south of the UT border, leaving almost all of East Idaho dry.
The only other impact of potential concern is the gusty northerly
surface flow extending down the Snake Plain. The strongest winds are
occurring through Monida Pass and the Arco Desert, and should
decrease through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening.
Temperatures remain warm enough overnight to forego any type of
Frost/Freeze headline, and highs bounce back into the 70s for
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

An upper ridge will be the main feature of note at the start of the
extended portion of the forecast bringing unusually warm weather to
the area for early May. Under ample sunshine, expect valley
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s with upper 60s to
lower 70s across the higher terrain zones. The area will reside at
the northern extent of the ridge and SW flow could allow for just
enough moisture to sneak into the region to produce some isolated
showers, maybe a thunderstorm, around the Continental Divide but
most of the area will remain dry. The ridge will continue to
strengthen on Friday and Saturday with 80s becoming commonplace both
days, with Saturday appearing to be the warmest of the two. Low to
mid 80s on Friday appear likely with mid to upper 80s likely for
Saturday. Some spots around Shoshone and into the Magic Valley could
even top 90! With so much daytime heating, could see some
showers/storms develop in the afternoon/evening hours but since
there won`t be a ton of moisture to work with, not expecting
anything too widespread. Models continue to show an upper trough
settling in over the Pacific NW early next week and on Sunday, H5
heights will begin to fall accordingly as the aforementioned trough
moves into place. We`ll still be warm though on Sunday as models
have slowed the progression of the trough a bit but clouds will
certainly be on the increase over the course of the day, along with
winds. It won`t be until early next week when temperatures start to
drop and precip chances begin to increase but there`s still a lot of
uncertainty in regards to the placement and timing of the trough so
for now, ran with NBM forecast and we`ll see how things play out
amongst the model guidance over the days ahead. Either way, expect
unusually warm temperatures across eastern Idaho from the latter part
of the work week and into the weekend followed by a likely return to
cooler weather at some point later early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 830 PM
MDT Tue May 6 2025

VFR conditions and overall light winds will prevail through the
period as high pressure is slowly building over eastern Idaho.
Still seeing SCT to BKN clouds at 6000 to 8000 feet for KDIJ,
KIDA, and, to a lesser degree KPIH, due to clouds moving over
the area from Wyoming. Expect clear skies overnight with light
and variable winds. Winds will become southwest by tomorrow
afternoon but, in general, will be below 10 mph. Expect clouds
(cumulus) FEW, possibly SCT, at around 7000 to 8000 feet
tomorrow afternoon for all sites except KBYI, which should
remain mostly sky clear. Then, winds drop off and skies become
clear tomorrow evening for all TAF sites.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...TW