721
FXUS65 KPIH 101930
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
130 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend into Wednesday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the mountains Wednesday
  and Thursday. Much stronger winds by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A high pressure system amplifying along the west coast and trough
over the central U.S. will keep the upper level flow northwesterly
over Idaho, thus supporting dry and warming conditions through mid-
week. Temperatures will warm by around 5 degrees today as compared
to yesterday and another 5 tomorrow, with temperatures back to near
normal Monday. Another several degree increase is forecast Tuesday,
bringing valley highs into above-normal territory in the low to mid-
90s. Winds will remain light throughout much of the period.
Beginning Tuesday afternoon, winds will become breezy ahead of the
incoming trough, with gusts to around 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The heat is back in full force for Eastern Idaho by Tuesday as we
return to zonal flow aloft with building high pressure over the
Southwestern US. Highs on Tuesday afternoon warm into the low 90s
for many of us in the valley locations and mid to upper 80s in the
mid elevations. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly a repeat, but tack
on a couple of extra degrees. Wind gusts on Tuesday will range from
20 to 25 mph for many with a bit of an increase on Wednesday to 25
to 35 mph. Wednesday also brings the return of any rain/storm
chances, though it still looks limited to the higher elevations of
the South Hills and Eastern Highlands at this time. Precipitation
chances will stick around for the second half of the week and into
part of the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for
Thursday through Saturday and breezy afternoon winds each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The forecast remains mild with dry conditions and fairly light winds
expected all across Eastern Idaho today and tomorrow. Will continue
to see some FEW to SCT mid and upper level clouds each
afternoon and wind gusts expected to top out around 15 kts. VFR
conditions continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A high pressure system amplifying along the west coast and trough
over the central U.S. will keep the upper level flow northwesterly
over Idaho, thus supporting dry and warming conditions through mid-
week. Temperatures will warm by around 5 degrees today as compared
to yesterday and another 5 tomorrow, with temperatures back to near
normal Monday. Relative humidity will largely remain above 15
percent today and Monday, although localized areas could see sub-15
percent values. Additionally, winds will generally remain light,
becoming breezy Tuesday afternoon ahead of the incoming trough. Wind
gusts will generally reach 20 to 25 mph Tuesday afternoon before
becoming stronger Wednesday and Thursday. The warming trend will
continue into mid-week as temperatures climb to well above normal by
Wednesday, with most valley locations likely to observe low to mid-
90s. A trough and associated cold front will arrive Wednesday, which
will increase winds, bring slight chances for isolated showers and
thunder, and help to cool temperatures a bit each day late week.
Therefore, Wednesday is the next likely opportunity for critical
fire weather conditions across at least portions of Southeast Idaho
due to the combination of low relative humidity and strong wind
gusts. Tuesday looks to be marginal, with more isolated areas
expected to reach critical threshold.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp