111
FXUS65 KPIH 150717
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
117 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More showers and storms expected today; Continued cooler than
  normal

- Another potent low pressure system expected for the weekend
  bringing more rain/storms and cold temperatures

- Gradual improvement expected early next week with a warmup
  likely mid/late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows cloud cover gradually
thinning across the region as the area of low pressure that
brought a rather unpleasant Wednesday continues to push east
this morning. We`re still seeing some clouds along and east of
the I-15 corridor, as well as some lingering showers, but things
should continue to improve this morning and into the early
afternoon. Western parts of the forecast area could even have
more sun than clouds for at least a little bit of the day. The
region still resides on the western extent of a broad U/L trough
aloft however and as we get into the afternoon and evening
hours, we`ll likely see another round of some showers and
thunderstorms develop once again. Primary area of focus today
looks to be across the Arco Desert, Snake Plain and into the
eastern highlands. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side
of normal once again with the U/L trough still in place with
highs generally ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

Friday looks very similar to today as far as sensible weather is
concerned. The U/L flow becomes a bit more zonal but a weak
impulse aloft will move north of the region likely sparking some
additional shower/storm development once again during the
afternoon and evening. Highest PoPs will be focused across the
central mountains and along the Continental Divide and towards
the Island Park region but can`t at least rule something
isolated out for the areas further south into the Snake Plain
and Magic Valley.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

As we get into the weekend, Saturday will feature some daytime
highs a bit closer to normal, but with a catch. Clouds will be
on the increase very quickly after daybreak as a potent upper
trough (and low) take hold over the Pacific NW once again.
Moisture pushes into the area by the afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms expected regionwide and these high PoPs will
continue into the day Sunday as the aforementioned low moves
overhead by the time we get into Sunday. When the low does this,
temps will plunge for the second half of the weekend with highs
likely in the upper 40s to low 50s throughout eastern Idaho.
Sunday will be the wettest and coldest day of the period so
certainly not an enjoyable end to the weekend but there is some
hope for improvement as we get into early next week. The low
will move down towards the Four Corners region by Monday
afternoon and we`ll see clouds and precip begin to abate by
later in the day but we will still have to contend with one last
day of fairly decent precip chances, especially across the
eastern half of the CWA.

Tuesday will be when things start to improve as troughing across
the Pacific NW gives way to gradual ridging which will allowing
things to begin to dry out and warm up, quickly at that. 70s
will likely return to most lower valley locations by Wednesday
based on recent model trends with 80s certainly possible just
beyond the extended portion of the forecast. Definitely appears
that some much needed days of warmth and ample sunshine are on
tap by the time we get to the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Lingering showers from heating today in moist northwest flow
aloft is still bringing light showers and/or vicinity showers
for all TAF sites currently. KDIJ risks some IFR CIGs tonight,
but right now keeping with only a SCT deck below or near 1000ft
AGL. KIDA, KPIH and KBYI could see brief MVFR CIGs early
tomorrow morning, have a tempo for BKN025 for KPIH and KIDA
currently. KSUN will likely have no impact to CIG or VSBY, but
-SHRA/TSRA will be around for the late afternoon tomorrow into
 the early evening tomorrow. Winds will be slightly breezy for
 KIDA, KPIH, and KBYI tomorrow afternoon with gusts near 20 kts.
 VCTS are possible as well for KIDA, KPIH, and KDIJ tomorrow
 afternoon. Have continued to hold off on VCTS for KBYI. &&

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...TW