594
FXUS65 KPIH 210705
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
105 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather likely for most of the area into the weekend.

- Marginally critical winds and humidity through Friday.

- Monsoon moisture lifting north late Saturday into Sunday will
  support the return of daily shower and thunderstorm chances
  into early next week as temperatures trend cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A weak trough will stall across central and eastern Idaho this
afternoon. The upper dynamics associated with this system will push
most of the mid level moisture southeast of the region by the
afternoon. With that said, a stray shower or thunderstorm may remain
possible across extreme southeast Idaho. Breezy conditions are
likely today with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range, with some gusts
to around 30 mph around Craters and INL. Temps across the valley
floors will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s today. The HRRR
smoke model is showing some near surface smoke from fires across
northern Idaho moving down through Lemhi county this morning and
into the Snake Plain. This seems to be verifying as Salmon is
reporting unhealthy air quality during the early overnight hours. So
will mention smoke in the upper Snake Plain for today. Dry weather
is likely tonight with high clouds arriving from the south through
the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Generally dry conditions continue for most of the forecast area
Friday and Saturday, but there is some hint of monsoonal moisture
remaining around/near the UT state line, leading to low confidence
isolated thunder threats across the southern highlands for both
afternoons per the ensemble blends. Deeper moisture rotates around
the high over the Four Corners/Great Basin by Sunday, leading to
increased shower and thunderstorm chances starting overnight
Saturday night and continuing throughout the remainder of the
extended period. Given the deeper moisture and the confidence in the
ensemble cluster agreement, there is confidence that if the weak
activity today doesn`t break the dry streak at Pocatello Airport, it
will most certainly be in jeopardy next week. Temperatures remain
warm into Sunday, then drop for Tuesday and beyond with the
precipitation influence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Expect light winds and clear skies overnight. High clouds will
move back in from the south late afternoon and evening. Winds
will remain mainly light for most areas. SUN could see a few
gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range tomorrow afternoon as a weak
trough slips through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms is possible across
zone 413 today. Otherwise expect dry conditions elsewhere. Gusty
winds are likely this afternoon with peak gusts in the 20 to 25
mph range with a few gusts to 30 mph possible in the western
portions of 410 and northern areas of 425. Humidities look
marginal as well, generally around 15 percent. As a whole,
conditions look just a touch under critical thresholds to
warrant red flag warnings. Wind and humidity look comparable for
Friday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13