349
FNUS71 KPHI 180917
FWSPHI

Spot Forecast for Bear Swamp...USFWS
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
517 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
South winds increase this afternoon to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30
mph gusts. Surface dew points will rise into the low to mid 40s, and
with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, Min RH values
will range from 35 to 40 percent across most of the region, except
for the Pine Barrens of southern New Jersey, where Min RH values
will be 30 to 35 percent. Will reach out to the state fire weather
partners to see if fuels have dried sufficiently to warrant a
Special Weather Statement for the risk of rapid fire spread today.

On Saturday, Min RH values will be 40 to 45 percent with SW winds 15
to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts. On Sunday, Min RH values will be
30 to 35 percent with NW winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20
mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (30200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................22 to 44.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   14  18  33  47  53  49  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  62  65  67  68  69  70  69
RH..............57  52  46  45  43  42  42  44
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   12  13  14  15  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.16  17  18  21  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  20  21  21  22  21
ADI.............27  33  38  42  44  34  34  22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18  22  26  29  30  27  23  17
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
ADI.................16 to 25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........31  44  39  30  24  22  28  30  35  45  34  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............68  66  64  64  63  63  63  64  64  64  64  63
RH..............49  54  60  60  62  65  65  63  65  65  65  70
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..15  14  14  14  13  13  13  13  13  13  14  14
20 FT wind gust.23  22  20  21  20  20  21  21  21  22  22  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.21  20  20  20  18  20  21  21  23  22  23  23
ADI.............25  18  18  18  16  18  19  19  21  20  21  21
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18  10  9   10  10  11  13  14  15  16  20  17
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (55800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................17 early in the morning increasing to 75 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  48  56  51  39  58  53  55  57  55  52  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  64  62  66  68  71  74  76  78  79  79  80
RH..............67  67  72  68  63  57  51  50  47  45  47  45
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  18  17
20 FT wind gust.23  23  25  26  26  26  26  26  26  25  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.22  22  24  25  25  24  25  25  24  25  25  26
ADI.............20  17  26  46  49  51  58  63  68  70  72  75
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16  15  20  31  33  35  40  45  50  52  54  56
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...MPS
Requested by...Eric Kronner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510978.0/PHI
.DELDT 04/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eric_kronner@fws.gov