382
FNUS71 KPHI 181225
FWSPHI

Spot Forecast for Wolf Swamp Unit #1 - Mop-up...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
825 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry conditions are expected today with forecast minRH values
in the 20-25% range across much of the area. Relative humidity in
the Philadelphia metro area, southern New Jersey, and Delmarva
could dip into the upper teens. This will be combined with winds
sustained near 10-15 mph from the north to northeast, with some
sporadic gusts near 18-20 mph possible at times along and southeast
of I-95. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees in most areas under sunny skies.

After coordination with our forest fire partners, a Special
Weather Statement for fire spread danger has been issued to
highlight this threat. The winds will likely fall short of Red
Flag criteria.

Dry conditions are forecast to persist over the weekend with
minimum relative humidity values around 25-35%, however winds will
be much lighter around 5 mph for much of the area. This should
help limit fire spread potential despite the persistently dry air.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind shift..........None.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (24200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................10 to 32.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   4   5   6   4   2   3   2   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  49  54  57  60  62  62  61  59
RH..............55  46  38  34  29  27  28  32  36
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.17  18  18  17  16  15  15  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.13  14  12  12  12  12  12  12  9
ADI.............10  13  18  25  31  32  32  31  21
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   10  12  17  23  24  24  23  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear. Patchy frost overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind shift..........None.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
ADI.................3 to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   1   1   0   0   2   2   1   2   1   1   1
Weather cov.....                                PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....                                FST FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............56  52  48  46  45  44  44  43  42  41  40  40
RH..............42  52  63  65  68  70  70  73  73  70  73  76
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.13  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   8   8   8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   8   9   9   7   7   7   7   6   6
ADI.............8   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Patchy frost early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind shift..........None.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
ADI.................2 to 12.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   2   1   1   1
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............39  39  42  45  51  56  60  62  63  64  63  62
RH..............76  76  82  68  50  42  36  34  32  34  38  43
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  W   SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.6 1.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............2   5   5   2   2   4   8   10  12  11  7   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   0   0   0   1   2   6   7   9   8   5   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...DeSilva
Requested by...Pat McElhenny
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424401.0/PHI
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL pmcelhenny@tnc.org