Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
626
FNUS71 KPHI 260845
FWSPHI
Spot Forecast for Jones Fire...NJFFS
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
445 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Periods of off and on showers and thunderstorms will be possible
at the burn site through early this evening...primarily before 8
PM EDT. The highest threat for lightning and for locally gusty
winds will be with the final round of thunderstorms which should
cross the burn site sometime between 4 and 8 PM. Total
precipitation amounts between 0.25 and 0.5 inches are expected at
the burn site, though stronger storms could bring locally higher
amounts.
Behind the final round of thunderstorms, there will be an abrupt
shift to northwesterly winds, and winds may also increase with
gusts up to 30 mph.
The windy conditions will continue into Sunday when northwest
winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph are expected. In addition,
relative humidity values are forecast to drop to about 30-40
percent at the burn site. How quickly the fuels dry out from the
showers today will determine any rapid fire spread risk.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................50 percent increasing to 70 percent in
the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind shift..........Gusty and erratic winds possible in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms, especially this afternoon.
An abrupt wind shift to northwesterly winds could
come as early as late afternoon, but is more likely
this evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 28
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph increasing to 21 to 25
mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (54900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
ADI.................13 early in the morning increasing to 55 in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 96 92 88 88 88 88 83 79 74
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 50 60 70 70 70 70
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 50 60 70 70 70 70
Temp............59 61 64 66 68 71 73 72 73 72 72
RH..............100 93 84 78 73 66 62 64 62 64 64
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..12 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 13
20 FT wind gust.20 22 24 25 26 28 28 28 26 25 24
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.9
Transp wind dir.SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.16 17 20 22 23 24 25 25 23 24 21
ADI.............18 19 23 34 39 46 55 52 47 52 38
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 10 15 26 32 41 55 50 45 52 34
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) becoming
clear (0-10 percent). Widespread rain showers
and scattered thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind shift..........An abrupt shift to northwesterly winds is expected
during the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
northwest around 10 mph with gusts to around 26
mph late in the evening. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 17 mph shifting to the
northwest 18 to 22 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (7000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
ADI.................13 to 19.
Eye level winds.....West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the around 7
mph with gusts to around 16 mph late in the
evening.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........71 67 64 46 29 11 9 6 3 4 4 5
Weather cov.....WID NUM ISO
Weather type....RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCT SCT ISO
CWR.............80 70 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).80 70 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............72 69 67 63 60 57 54 50 48 47 46 45
RH..............64 68 73 75 72 72 71 71 68 71 73 73
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W W NW NW NW NW NW W W
20 FT wind spd..12 10 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.22 18 17 18 21 23 24 26 26 25 24 23
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW W W W W NW NW NW NW NW W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 11 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 15 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4
Transp wind dir.SW SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.17 16 16 18 20 21 22 22 21 22 20 21
ADI.............19 14 14 16 13 14 15 15 14 15 13 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12 7 9 12 14 14 16 16 17 24 20 26
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind shift..........None expected.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 31
mph increasing to 36 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 28 mph increasing to 30 to 35
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (114000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (133200
knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon.
ADI.................22 early in the morning increasing to 148 in
the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 31 mph
increasing to 36 mph late in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9 12 15 27 40 52 53 54 56 45 34 23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............44 45 49 52 54 57 58 59 60 61 61 62
RH..............76 73 66 59 54 49 45 44 41 39 39 38
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..13 14 15 17 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
20 FT wind gust.23 24 24 28 31 33 33 36 36 35 35 33
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Eye lvl wnd gst.14 14 14 17 19 20 20 22 22 21 21 20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.9 3.0 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.20 22 28 30 31 32 32 32 32 33 33 35
ADI.............22 52 89 117 128 137 140 141 142 144 146 148
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28 36 72 114 133 149 156 160 164 164 163 162
Ventrate Cat....PR PR GD VGD VGD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL
$$
Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Trevor Raynor
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2511344.4/PHI
.DELDT 04/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL trevor.raynor@dep.nj.gov