Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
932
FNUS71 KPHI 192259
FWSPHI
Spot Forecast for Lakewood Country Club...NJFFS
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
559 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 EST on November 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A warm front will approach from the southwest through tonight. Low
pressure and an associated strong front moves into our region
Wednesday night and Thursday with some much needed rain. Low
pressure then lingers across the Northeast into the weekend with
much colder air before moving into the Canadian Maritimes by the end
of the weekend. High pressure then arrives for later Sunday and
especially Monday, followed by a cold front on Tuesday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers late in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
evening, then decreasing to 10 percent
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the west 3
to 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).
ADI.................2 to 3.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
TIME (EST) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69 72 76 79 79 77 75 77 80 82 79
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............50 49 48 48 47 46 47 46 45 46 46
RH..............63 66 68 68 74 76 74 76 82 79 79
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW W W W NW NW N
20 FT wind spd..2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.3 2 2 2
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW SW SW SW SW W W W NW NW N
Eye lvl wnd spd.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.2
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W NW
Transp wind spd.6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3
ADI.............3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
rain late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 3 mph shifting to the east in the
late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 knot-ft).
ADI.................3 to 13.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east up to 4 mph in the
late morning and afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75 90 86 87 88 88 88 91 91 90 89 90
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............46 47 49 54 56 57 59 60 60 59 58 57
RH..............83 79 77 66 64 62 60 60 62 67 72 75
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..2 2 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT wind gust. 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 8
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE NE NE E E E E E E E E E
Eye lvl wnd spd.1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst. 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.8
Transp wind dir.NW N N N E E E E E SE E E
Transp wind spd.3 3 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8
ADI.............3 3 3 3 6 9 10 13 13 13 13 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 1 2 4 8 9 12 12 11 11 5
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of rain
early in the evening, then chance of rain early
in the evening. Rain in the late evening and
overnight.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 30 percent early in
the evening, then increasing to 90 percent late
in the evening increasing to 100 percent
overnight decreasing to 80 percent.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 13 mph shifting to the
northwest 8 to 9 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 18 mph shifting to the southeast 18
to 21 mph overnight, then shifting to the west
15 to 17 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
ADI.................6 to 21.
Eye level winds.....East winds up to 8 mph shifting to the
northwest 5 to 6 mph after 3 am.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........91 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 100 100 100 92
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20 30 30 30 90 90 90 100 100 100 80 80
Chc of pcpn (%).20 30 30 30 90 90 90 100 100 100 80 80
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 53 52 51 49
RH..............80 86 93 93 96 96 96 100 96 96 96 96
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E N NW NW
20 FT wind spd..6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 12 10 9 10
20 FT wind gust.8 13 14 16 17 20 22 23 20 17 16 17
Eye lvl wnd dir.E E E E E E E E E N NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 8 8 10 10 12 13 14 12 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E SE SE S W W NW
Transp wind spd.9 12 13 14 15 18 20 21 18 17 15 16
ADI.............6 8 11 12 13 21 18 19 17 15 13 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 7 12 12 14 21 22 22 20 18 16 17
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain early in
the morning, then chance of rain showers.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 40 percent early in
the morning, then increasing to 50 percent late
in the morning decreasing to 30 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (62300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
ADI.................24 to 57.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 10 mph.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84 76 75 73 72 70 69 67 68 68 69 73
Weather cov.....DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80 40 40 40 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 30
Chc of pcpn (%).80 40 40 40 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............48 47 48 49 51 51 52 52 51 50 49 47
RH..............93 93 86 83 77 74 66 63 63 61 61 65
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..13 15 16 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 15
20 FT wind gust.21 24 25 25 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 24
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 14 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.6
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.16 17 18 18 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 23
ADI.............24 26 30 34 38 40 41 42 47 52 57 52
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18 19 24 30 35 36 37 38 46 54 62 52
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD FR
$$
Forecaster...MJL
Requested by...Trevor Raynor
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426865.3/PHI
.DELDT 11/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL trevor.raynor@dep.nj.gov,deale.carey@dep.nj.gov,harrison.lewis@dep.nj.gov,william.jubert@dep.nj.gov,brian.corvinus@dep.nj.gov