992
FXUS61 KPHI 231812
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure has shifted offshore. This will allow a cold
front to track through the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into
Monday morning. Another weak cold front will push through either
Tuesday or Wednesday. Cool high pressure will return to finish out
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic, centered south of Long
Island and eastern New England, will drift to the north and east and
out to sea tonight. Low pressure moving through Canada will drag a
cold front through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late tonight
through Sunday. That front should be through western New York and
western Pennsylvania by Sunday evening.

Dry conditions on tap tonight, then scattered showers may move into
the southern Poconos and far western portions of the Lehigh Valley
Sunday morning ahead of that approaching cold front. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms then develop Sunday afternoon, mainly west
of the I-95 corridor, as that front draws closer. The threat for
severe weather is minimal.

Will mention that low pressure will form over the Southeast coast
tonight, then will intensify over the Carolina coast on Sunday. This
system should stay well enough south and east to have any direct
impacts on the local area.

Warmer and more humid tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Seasonably warm and humid on Sunday with highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
forecast area Sunday night. They might be a bit more numerous across
the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, but everywhere else we`re looking at
20-50% PoPs. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning will be in the
60s for most of us. Can`t rule out some 50s across the Poconos.

The slow-moving front will still be tracking through the region on
Monday, bringing the scattered showers and thunderstorms with it
before finally moving offshore Monday night. The best chance of
seeing the shower activity will basically be across the eastern and
northern half of CWA. Temperatures are still expected to warm
into the low 80s during the afternoon (mid to upper 70s across
the Poconos), but a much cooler and drier airmass will arrive
Monday night, cooling temperatures into the mid 50s to low 60s
(lower 50s Poconos).

Tuesday will be dry with dewpoints in the 50s. Highs will climb into
the 70s. The Poconos may not leave the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No large scale changes. Like I said yesterday, if you like September
weather, this week is for you. There`s a good chance dewpoints stay
in the 50s during this entire period. A weak front is expected to
pass through the region Tuesday or Wednesday. At the moment, it
appears only a few light showers will be possible in the Poconos.
Expect high temperatures to max out in the 70s to lower 80s (60s in
the Poconos). Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s. They`ll even
drop into the 40s across the Poconos, but likely remain in the lower
60s right along the warmer bays and ocean.

On an aside, once again, the region is slowly starting to see
pockets of abnormally dry conditions. Many positives this coming
week weather-wise, but the lack of rain won`t help with the
increased dryness. The US Drought Monitor should be something you
keep an eye on in the weeks ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR. S winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to
20 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming SE 5 kt or less after
06Z. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Scattered late day SHRA/TSRA, mainly at KRDG/KABE
which may briefly result in sub-VFR conditions. S winds 5 to 10 kt.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. Brief sub-VFR conditions
are possible in scattered SHRA/TSRA.

Monday night through Thursday...VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters through tonight. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect until 1am for ANZ450 and until 6
am for the rest of the NJ and DE ocean waters. Sub-SCA conditions
thereafter. South to southeast winds 10 to 15 kt.

Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria on Delaware Bay.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions. Visibility
restrictions and locally higher winds and seas will be possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

Monday night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Rip Currents...

YOU ARE RISKING YOUR LIFE IF YOU GO IN THE WATER!

For this afternoon and Sunday, conditions continue to improve
but still expecting high waves of 3 to 5 feet and a long period
11 second swell with Hurricane Erin pulling away. A HIGH risk
for development of life-threatening rip currents will remain
through the end of the weekend.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The impacts of Erin will continue to lessen, particularly on
the oceanfront, as the onshore swells begin to weaken. However,
due to persistent onshore/shore parallel flow, water will have
difficulty draining out of backbays in both NJ and DE, as well
as the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River. As a result,
continued widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with
localized moderate tidal flooding possible, particularly on the
backbays with the high tide cycle tonight. As a result, the
Coastal Flood Warnings as well as the Coastal Flood Advisories
for the tidal Delaware River have been extended through the high
tide cycle tonight into early Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo
LONG TERM...Kruzdlo
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/MPS
MARINE...Kruzdlo/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI