252
FXUS61 KPHI 051737
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
137 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area through Friday, before
tracking across the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. High
pressure will briefly build in Sunday and Monday. A warm front
will move through the region on Tuesday. Another cold front will
then track through the forecast area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Uneventful weather through tonight with high pressure well
offshore and subsidence within the local region. The nearest
disturbance is a cold front back across the upper Great Lakes,
however a weak coastal system is also taking shape in the
Carolinas and southern Virginia. The front will creep slowly
east through the remainder of today, and the Carolina system
will slowly move north toward the Chesapeake Bay region as
well. Unlike the past couple days though, high cloud cover from
the approaching systems will blanket the region.

Highs today will be well above normal with mid/upper 80s across
most spots. Some stations within the area, especially from the
Philly metro and north/west, could experience their first 90
degree day of the year. The increasing high clouds will be a
limiting factor on this though, which should be thickest toward
the south across the coastal plain. Thus, places in northern NJ
and eastern PA could end up a few degrees warmer than the
typical warmer areas of the Philly metro, southern NJ, and
Delmarva. Cooler at the shore with high temperatures mainly in
the 70s expected. The humidity will be more noticeable today
with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s, though some
mixing out may occur later this afternoon.

Dry conditions are expected across most of the area through
tonight. A couple of minor exceptions though, a slight chance
(15-20%) of a terrain driven shower or thunderstorm across the
Southern Poconos late this afternoon and into tonight as the
cold front from the west approaches. The other exception will be
down in Delmarva, as the coastal low approaches, it will
potentially fire a few showers across southern Delaware late in
the overnight hours tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
No significant changes to the short term period into this
weekend. The cold front will inch closer on Friday. Its progress
still looks to be slow with little upper- level support and the
continued presence of the coastal surface low just south of the
region. Most forecast models have the coastal low moving out to
sea Friday night in the waking of the departing high. With the
cold front coming in from the west and being a bit closer, we`re
expecting more showers to track into the forecast area,
possibly down to the I-95 corridor on Friday afternoon and
night. PWAT values will start creeping up across the region too,
topping out between 1.25-1.75 inches. As a result, there will
be potential for a heavy shower or downpour. Our zones north and
west are highlighted in the ERO (Marginal) as a result. Across
the Delmarva and maybe even Cape May county, we can`t rule out a
stray shower as the southern coastal low makes it`s way
offshore.

By Saturday, with an upper level trough beginning to deepen to
our west and the coastal low moving further offshore, the cold
front will finally have the support to begin to move across the
area, and lead to increasing chances of precipitation. There is
some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and
PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the
potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid-level
winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so
shear is not expected to be overly strong. However, there could
be a few isolated strong storms.

High temperatures on Friday will mainly top out in the mid 70s
to mid 80s. With it being unsettled on Saturday as the cold
front moves through, highs will run in the upper 60s to upper
70s. Delmarva could still see lower 80s. Lows will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look active. This is
in part due to a quasi-zonal pattern aloft with a series of
weak upper-level waves moving through the larger scale west-east
flow laying across region. A deepening upper level trough then
does look to approach the region by mid-week potentially
signaling an end to this pattern. Overall though, the forecast
for the new week is relatively uncertain.

At the surface, latest model guidance indicates that high
pressure may only briefly build in on Sunday before a weak wave
lifts the stalled front to our south back north towards our
region. As a result, PoPs for Sunday have increased, with a
chance (30-40%) for showers or a thunderstorm across much of the
region. As this wave departs, high pressure looks to build back
in late Sunday into early Monday, before another wave comes
along bring another chance for rain later Monday.

By Tuesday, with the deepening trough beginning to move towards
the region, the surface front will be able to push northward
through the region as a warm front, ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday as the upper-level trough swings through the region.
Showers and a few thunderstorms look likely on Tuesday and into
Wednesday before PoPs decrease later on Wednesday as the cold
front departs.

Temperatures throughout the long term period look to be within
a few degrees of normal for early June. Highs will be in the 70s
to lower 80s and lows will mainly be in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR expected. BKN cirrus. South to southwest around 10
knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR but BKN to OVC ceilings will be lowering as mid-
level clouds move in. South-southwest winds initially around
5-10 knots, decreasing to 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected, but sub-VFR conditions
possible with a chance (30-40%) for showers or a thunderstorm,
mainly at RDG/ABE. Southwest to south winds increasing to near
10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times with showers
and thunderstorms likely (60-70%).

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected but sub-VFR
conditions possible with chances (25-35%) for showers or a
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight. South-southwest
winds around 10-15 knots expected with a few gusts up to around
20 knots possible, particularly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Seas of 2-3 feet, increasing to 3-4 feet on
Friday. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. Shower and storms will be possible Saturday, which may
lead to locally higher winds and waves. Seas build to 3-5 feet.

Sunday and Monday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Rip Currents...

There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware
Beaches for both today and Friday. Today, south to southwest
winds will average 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2
feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. For Friday, similar
conditions can be expected with south to southeast winds 5 to 10
mph with breaking waves around 1-2 feet.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...AKL/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...AKL/Staarmann
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/MPS