602
FXUS61 KPHI 121943
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
243 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front crosses the region this evening. High
pressure redevelops over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and
Southeast to close out the week as a trough lies over the
Northeast. High pressure passes through on Saturday, followed by
a clipper system Saturday night through Sunday. High pressure
returns on Monday, and then another system may track near the
area Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad troughing encompasses much of the east coast. High
pressure is centered well to the south while a clipper low is
tracking north of the Great Lakes. The cyclonic flow is
producing enough lift for some weak radar returns, though it
doesn`t appear much is making it to the ground (Mount Pocono did
report some flurries). Clouds have been attempting to break up
across the southern half of the area, but wind trajectories
suggest at least scattered to broken clouds will be around into
this evening.

Stronger radar returns upstream may slide to the area early
this evening as the associated cold front pushes through. Most
guidance shows little to no measurable precipitation. The
greatest chance of some sprinkles or flurries will be in the
Poconos.

Overnight lows will be in the 30s to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be over the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys and into the Gulf Coast states on Thursday while surface
and mid level troughing lies over the Northeast. Gusty
northwest winds redevelop with daytime mixing (25-30 mph gusts,
perhaps locally higher). Shortwaves should produce cloudiness
over at least northern portions of the forecast area, and some
flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled out for the southern
Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Daytime highs will be
seasonable (lower to mid 50s with 40s in the higher elevations).
Winds diminish after sunset with loss of diurnal heating. Lows
Thursday night will be in the 30s.

Surface high pressure will begin building in from the west
Friday before moving to the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night.
While the upper level pattern begins to translate eastward, one
final shortwave trough will rotate across the area Friday. This
could increase cloud cover and perhaps bring a little light
precipitation, especially across the northern half of the area.
With a decreasing pressure gradient, winds will be lighter, but
there still may be some gusts around 20 mph. Daytime highs
remain consistent near climatology. The surface high will
promote light winds Friday night, and skies should be clear
enough to allow radiational cooling. Thus more areas should end
up near to below freezing.

A developing warm front will split the surface high to centers
near the Gulf Coast and over Quebec. The warm front stays to the
southwest Saturday, so temperatures should remain near
seasonable values. No precipitation is expected. However,
moisture advection aloft will lead to increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clipper system passes north of the area Saturday night, lifting
the warm front northward. The center of this low will be far
enough north that southerly flow ahead of the system results in
temperatures warm enough for precipitation to be plain rain, but
cannot rule out some wet snowflakes in the higher elevations of
the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. There could
be some elevated instability, so a few embedded lightning
strikes can`t be ruled out.

Rain tapers off on Sunday as the cold front pushes through.
However, we should reside in the warm sector long enough
(combined with postfrontal downsloping in gust westerly flow)
for highs to reach the low to mid 60s in southeast Pennsylvania
and New Jersey, and in the mid and upper 60s in Delmarva.

Behind the cold front Sunday night, temperatures tumble back to
near and just below normal on Monday. Highs top off in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Strong west to northwest winds develop,
generally 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts, as the pressure
gradient tightens between departing low pressure and high
pressure building into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday and Wednesday as a
shortwave trough undercuts an amplified ridge in the central US.
This system could eventually bring some precipitation, although
it will be dependent on its eventual track and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR with ceilings FL050-070.
Westerly winds around 10-15 knots with gusts around 20-25
knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. West winds 5-10 knots gusting to 15 knots at
times. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR, though scattered to broken stratocu possible
near/north of PHL. W-NW winds 10 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt
gusts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR with diminishing winds.

Friday through Friday night...VFR. W-NW winds gusting to 20 kt
during the day.

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR at times in SHRA and low
ceilings. Improving conditions by Sunday afternoon with W winds
gusting up to 25 kt.

Monday...VFR with west winds gusting up to 25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA flags for all marine zones thru Thursday with westerly gusts
25-30 kts. Seas largely 3 to 5 feet with a few 6 foot seas
further offshore. Fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Winds diminishing and seas subsiding, although
advisories may need to be extended for portions of the waters.

Friday through Friday night...Generally sub-SCA conditions, but
there may be occasional gusts up to 25 kt during the day.

Saturday through Saturday night...Sub-SCA conditions during the
day. Increasing SW winds may lead to near-advisory conditions
late Saturday night.

Sunday through Monday...SCA conditions possible. W winds 15 to
20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL/ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...MPS/ADS
LONG TERM...MPS/ADS
AVIATION...ADS/MJL/MPS
MARINE...ADS/MJL/MPS