722
FXUS61 KPHI 040057
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
857 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652 is now in effect.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for Delmarva,
southern New Jersey, and Chester county.

2. The Labor Day Weekend will feature mostly dry weather with
at or below normal temperatures and lower humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect
for Delmarva, southern New Jersey, and Chester county.

Severe thunderstorms over western and central Pennsylvania are
tracking to the east-southeast, and will move into an unstable
airmass with DCAPE from 1000-1400 J/kg over southeast
Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delmarva. SBCAPE Values
are in excess of 2000J/kg, and there is 30-40 kt of 0-6 km Bulk
Shear. Thunderstorms should hold together enough despite lack of
diurnal heating due to the instability over the area to produce
severe weather, generally in the form of damaging winds, but
cannot rule out large hail.

In addition, local flash flooding is possible with the
thunderstorms. There is limited confidence in which areas will
receive any flooding, and also with greater storm motion, it`s
probable that flooding may be limited. For these reasons, we
have not considered any flood watches attm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The Labor Day Weekend will feature mostly dry
weather with at or below normal temperatures and lower humidity.

By Saturday, the trend among model guidance shows the frontal
boundary south of our region, with Canadian high pressure
building in across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will
largely end any shower and thunderstorm potential. Thus, Labor
Day Weekend is still shaping up to feature nice weather, with
temperatures trending at or slightly below normal and lower
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR initially. A wave of SHRA/TSRA will impact the
terminals during the overnight hours, and the strongest storms
will be capable of IFR VSBYs. Otherwise, BR develops late with
MVFR VSBYs. Light W-SW winds this evening, becoming LGT/VRB.
Low confidence.

Friday...Any BR in the morning will lift and dissipate, then
VFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA may impact the terminals late
in the afternoon and in the evening, but confidence is too low
to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. W-NW winds around 10 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt possible in the morning. Low confidence on
TSRA potential.

Outlook...

Friday night... VFR expected. Patchy rural fog possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory conditions. A prevailing West to Southwest wind
expected. Later today and into the overnight periods winds will
be light and somewhat variable. TSTMs will create locally
hazardous winds and seas overnight. Scattered showers/TSTMs for
Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through
the period.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, winds turn offshore, with west/northwest winds 10
MPH or less. Breaking waves also around 2 feet or less expected
with a dominant period of 8 seconds. With relatively tranquil
conditions in the surf zone, a LOW risk for rip currents is
expected at all beaches.

For Saturday, winds turn more northerly, though still light.
Similar surf zone conditions expected at all beaches will result
in another LOW risk for all shore points to start the holiday
weekend.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/MPS/OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/MPS/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/Hoeflich/OHara