702
FXUS61 KPHI 111443
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1043 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across our area will gradually weaken and shift
east through Tuesday. A surface trough looks to become
established across our area Wednesday into Thursday, then a cold
front pushes in from the northwest Thursday and through the area
by Friday. This front may then stall nearby or even dissipate
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes needed so far this morning, although an area
of clouds has developed across portions of southeast
Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern
Maryland. This will continue for the remainder of the morning
hours, before dissipating into the afternoon.

Ridging aloft will remain in place across the area through
tonight, slowly becoming more suppressed with time. At the
surface, high pressure originally centered over the area will
shift slowly east and offshore. Skies today should be partly to
mostly sunny. Temperatures will be quite similar to yesterday,
with highs in the mid 80s for most locations, with upper 80s
possible across the urban corridor.

With light southerly winds transporting an increasingly moist
airmass into the area, the development of some low clouds or
patchy fog may again occur tonight, generally across the
southern half of the area. Overnight lows will generally be in
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will push offshore on Tuesday and weaken
in the process. This will allow more return flow to bring a
much warmer and more humid air mass into the region ahead of an
approaching cold front. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast
to be in the upper 80s to low 90s with low to mid 80s along the
coast and in the higher elevations. Dew points are forecast to
be in the 60s and low 70s Tuesday, although they may lower some
during peak heating. Heat indices will top out in the low to mid
90s across the region, below any advisory criteria.

Cloud coverage will increase Tuesday night as an upper level
trough associated with a surface cold front inch closer to the
region. This will help keep our overnight temperatures rather
mild, with lows forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The upper level trough will push into the region Wednesday with
a trailing surface cold front trailing behind it. Ahead of the
front, a surface trough looks to provide an axis for low-level
convergence and thus some afternoon and evening convection.
Still a bit of uncertainty in the coverage and intensity of
these storms, though some heavy downpours may be possible with
PWAT values pushing 2 inches. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s again. Dew points look to inch up a few
degrees, largely hovering around 70. Peak heat indicies look to
top off in the mid to upper 90s, remaining shy of heat advisory
criteria.

Much of the afternoon convection will likely dissipate through
Wednesday night, though some showers may linger. Lows will be
mild again given the cloud coverage, cooling down only into the
upper 60s to low 70s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As the upper level trough pivots across New England, the surface
cold front is slated to push through the region Thursday into
Thursday night, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms, though overall forcing looks to remain weak,
bringing uncertainty in the coverage and intensity of these
storms. We will see high temperatures Thursday back in the upper
80s to around 90 once again. Dew points will start the day in
the low 70s, but fall back into the 60s behind the front as it
sweeps through the region in the afternoon. By the evening and
into the overnight hours, the frontal boundary will move through
the region with any showers and storms clearing out. Lows will
be in the 60s again with lower dew points.

For Friday, the cold front will continue to move offshore as
high pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures may only be
a few degrees cooler, with high in the upper 80s for most, but
the dew points will be notably lower, back into the low to mid
60s.

Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface look to keep
the weekend on the dry side. Saturday looks to see similar
conditions to Friday. Warmer temperatures are expected Sunday
with some humidity creeping back in as high pressure moves
offshore, bringing the return flow back into the region to close
out the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...An area of MVFR level clouds has developed across
portions of southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey,
Delaware, and eastern Maryland. This will continue for the
remainder of the morning hours, before dissipating into the
afternoon. Any clouds this afternoon are expected to lift to VFR
levels. Light and variable wind this morning will become south-
southwesterly by this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Areas of low clouds or patchy fog
could develop, but location and magnitude of any potential
restrictions is currently uncertain. Wind diminishing to light
and variable after 02-03Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Some local low clouds/fog possible Tuesday night,
otherwise VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Some showers and thunderstorms possible,
especially Wednesday afternoon and evening, with local sub-VFR
conditions, otherwise VFR.

Friday...VFR overall.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated through tonight. Winds will
generally be out of the south/southwest under 15 kt. Seas 2-3
feet.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For today, light southwest wind in the morning will become
south- southeasterly around 10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking
wave heights of 1-3 feet. Easterly swell around 2 feet at 7-9
seconds in length. Monday is also still within two days of the
full moon. Will continue with a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For Tuesday, southerly wind increases to around 10-15 mph, with
a 7-9 second period easterly 2 foot swell continuing. As a
result, breaking waves in the surf zone look to remain around
1-3 feet. At this time, will continue to maintain a MODERATE
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all
beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-
     007>010-012-015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/MJL
NEAR TERM...Cooper/Robertson
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...Cooper/MJL/Robertson
MARINE...Cooper/MJL