943
FXUS61 KPHI 062353
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
753 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly works its way through the region tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms again possible for Saturday. Weak high
pressure builds in from our north Saturday night through
Sunday. Low pressure pulls a warm front through the region
Sunday night through Monday. A cold front approaches the region
Tuesday, passing through into Tuesday night. High pressure
returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished significantly,
therefore the Flood Watch has been cancelled. A few isolated
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm remains possible tonight, but
the flash flood threat has decreased.

Overnight, rains/tstms will end during the evening leaving
partly cloudy skies and areas of fog developing. Very mild and
humid overnight with lows in the 60s.

Weak low pressure on the cold front just west of the area
approaches Saturday morning and works its way through the region
during the day Saturday, finally departing in the afternoon.
Showers become likely with scattered thunderstorms across the
region. Cloudy skies and rainfall will knock temperatures down
on Saturday compared to Friday, with highs generally in the
upper 70s to low 80s, yet dew points remain in the upper 60s. CAPE
values will be a touch lower on Saturday, generally 1000 to
1500 J/kg, but 0-6 KM Bulk Shear will be a touch higher on
Saturday, generally 25 to 35 kt. The Storm Prediction Center has
a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas that will be south of the
front during the afternoon, including the Delmarva, central and
southern New Jersey, and most of southeast Pennsylvania, with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front looks to finish crossing through the region Saturday
night as weak surface high pressure moves eastward to our
north. A warm front from low pressure development eyes the
region from the south Sunday, possibly lifting through Sunday
night into Monday. In the upper levels, a weak ridge axis moves
eastward of the region Sunday, allowing shortwave energy pluses
to plague the region through much of the term.

With a mess of shortwave energy plus warm frontal development
and movement, expect an unsettled short term with multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms. We could see some light
showers linger Saturday night in our southern and eastern most
areas, but the period should mostly be dry for the region. PoPs
will increase across the area from the southwest Sunday with the
likely chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
into the overnight time frame. SPC maintains a MARGINAL outlook
for severe weather for Delmarva, southern NJ, and southeastern
PA during this time frame.

Showers and some thunderstorm activity could linger through
much of the Sunday overnight period. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms from the northwest looks to be on the horizon
for the Monday afternoon and night time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes region Monday
night looks to degrade into an open trough as it lifts
northeastwards through Wednesday. Ensembles and deterministic
guidance suggest a more zonal pattern will take hold over the
region thereafter. At the surface level, a cold front approaches
Monday night/Tuesday, possibly crossing through Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Thereafter, guidance suggest weak surface high pressure
will build in from the west. This surface high pressure looks to
hold decent influence over the region Wednesday and Thursday,
possibly into Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms likely for Tuesday; dry conditions
(i.e., no PoPs) in the forecast for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
Temperatures expected to be around average to just slightly
above average during the duration of the term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Only an isolated shower and possibly a rogue
thunderstorm tonight. Otherwise, fog and stratus developing
this evening around 02-04Z for ABE/RDG where it rained the
most and at ACY/MIV with a light onshore SE-E flow developing.
The other I-95 corridor sites will be following suite after
06Z. MVFR/IFR and possibly lower conditions expected. Light
winds. Low confidence.

Saturday...Lingering IFR conditions early, giving way to MVFR
for the late morning/early afternoon. More showers/tstms
expected in the afternoon with MVFR conditions possible. South
to Southwest winds 10 to 15 kts. Low/medium confid.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions in fog and stratus
possible.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR initially Sunday, then
sub-VFR in SHRA/TSRA Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR Monday afternoon, then sub-VFR in
SHRA/TSRA Monday night and Tuesday.

Wednesday...VFR conditions anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight and Saturday. South
to southeast around 10 kt into tonight with 3 to 4 ft seas.
Scattered showers and tstms this evening. Fog possible
overnight. More showers/tstms Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY
restrictions in fog possible Saturday night. VSBY restrictions
in showers and thunderstorms mostly possible late Sunday and
Sunday night, Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms may
result in locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents...

On Friday, winds will be south to southeast around 10 mph.
Swells will be around 1-2 feet with a period of 6-8 seconds. As
a result, breaking waves will be around 1-2 feet. Therefore,
there is a LOW risk for development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for all beaches on Friday.

On Saturday, the onshore swell increases to 3-5 feet with a
medium 7-9 second period. Additionally, some longer period waves
may be embedded in the swell. Breaking waves in the surf zone
of 2-3 feet are expected as a result. Winds will be around 5-10
mph out of the southwest to west-southwest. Due to the
increasing and potentially multi-period swells, there is a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for all beaches on Saturday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL/MPS/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...MJL/MPS/OHara/Wunderlin
MARINE...AKL/MPS/OHara/Wunderlin