592
FXUS61 KPHI 230513
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1213 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the weekend into early next
week. A weak cold front crosses the area late Tuesday with high pressure
then returning on Wednesday. A stronger cold front then looks to
move through on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Forecast on track, some clouds moving through but those should
be gone by daybreak.

Warmer tonight compared to Friday night/Saturday morning with
overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s, except low 20s
over the southern Poconos, NW NJ, and the cooler spots of
interior southern NJ such as the Pine Barrens.

Little overall change is expected for Sunday. The day will
start out mainly sunny before some mid and high clouds increase
through the afternoon as the next disturbance approaches. It
will remain dry however with temperatures a few degrees warmer
than today. In fact, high temperatures should be pretty close to
average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be centered just to the south Sunday night, then
slip east off the coast for Monday and Monday night. The result will
be an increasing warming trend as winds turn more southerly, with no
real chance of precip. A passing shortwave may result in some clouds,
however, keeping sunshine a bit less abundant. After a chilly night
Sunday night with most areas in the 20s, highs rebound into the 50s
for much of the area on Monday except for the I-78 corridor north
and along the chilly coastal strip where highs will generally be
in the 40s. Increased southerly flow and some clouds should result
in a milder night Monday night, with most area looking likely to
stay above freezing. This will be followed by even milder weather
Tuesday with most areas seeing highs well into the 50s to even some
low 60s. By late day, an approaching cold front could bring a few
showers to portions of eastern PA and NW NJ but POPs are only 15
to 20 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally not many changes with the latest long term updates. High
pressure from the short/near term periods weakens across the area
while an upper trough heads towards the upper Great Lakes. This
trough continues to progress east and promotes the creation of a low
pressure system across the Ohio Valley area. This low continues to
move E/NE across the Middle Atlantic area Thursday. We will continue
with chance pops for Thu and indicate lesser pops for Thu night and
into early Friday. P-type favors rain for most locals, but some snow
chances for the N/NW areas is possible too. Nothing significant is
expected at this time. Fair weather for later Friday and into
the beginning of next weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal Wed/Thu but then a cold front
arrives later Thu and knocks temperatures back closer to normal for
Friday. Normals for the Delaware Valley during the last week of Feb.
are for highs in the upper 40s and lows around 30.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR. Winds out of the southwest around 5 kt or
less. High confidence.

Today...VFR. W-NW winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds going light and variable with periods of
calm likely. High confidence.

Outlook...
Mainly VFR prevailing Monday through Wednesday, with just a
slight chance of showers Tuesday afternoon/evening. A cold front
arrives Thursday and may bring some showers along with the
potential for restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through Sunday. Winds west to
southwest tonight at generally around 10 to 15 with some gusts
to around 20 knots. Westerly winds on Sunday around 10 knots.
Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday will remain below SCA levels on all
waters, but increasing southerly flow may touch SCA criteria
Monday night into Tuesday. Winds look likely to diminish Tuesday
night into Wednesday. No significant weather expected through
Wednesday.

South to southwest winds start to increase again Thursday ahead
of a cold front however conditions should remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MPS
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MPS/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara