501
FXUS61 KPHI 031026
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
626 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly shifts off the southern Mid Atlantic coast
Tuesday and remain offshore through Thursday. A cold front
approaches the area Thursday into Friday, before moving across
the area Saturday. High pressure briefly builds in later Sunday,
before a potential coastal low affects the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control Tuesday as it gradually shifts
southeastward of the region. Dry conditions and warmer
temperatures can be expected with afternoon highs reaching the
upper 70s to mid 80s, about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Temperatures Tuesday night will be warmer as well, only cooling
off into the mid 50s to around 60.

While skies will be largely cloud-free, the smoke from the
Canadian wildfires will likely stay over the region Tuesday,
making for hazy sunshine. There is a chance that the smoke
could mix closer to the ground on Tuesday, but confidence
remains low on any significant impacts from it at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain offshore of the Mid Atlantic region
Wednesday before beginning to shift out to sea Thursday. Dry
weather is expected Wednesday through much of Thursday.
However, as a cold front approaches and stalls to our north
later Thursday and Thursday night, we could see some isolated to
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across
northeast PA and northwest NJ.

Temperatures will continue to warm into Wednesday with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Thursday still looks to be the warmest day
of the week, reaching the mid 80s to around 90 in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front inches closer on Friday, bringing a potential
round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will
still be above climo, but not expected to be as warm as Thursday
given increased cloud and shower coverage. PWAT values will
start creeping up here too, reaching up to 1.25-1.75 inches,
thus the potential for a heavy shower or downpour is possible.
Afternoon highs will reach into the mid- to- upper 80s.

By Saturday, the cold front will begin to move across the area,
which will lead to increasing changes of precipitation. There
is some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg,
and PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the
potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid level
winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so
shear is not expected overly strong. However, there could be a
few isolated strong storms.

The front is forecast to stall to our south Sunday as high
pressure builds to our north, possibly leading to dry conditions
later Sunday into Sunday night. However, unsettled weather
could return early next week as a coastal low may impact the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tuesday...VFR. Hazy conditions probable from residual wildfire
smoke. Uncertainty lies if this will restrict visibilities
closer to the ground so left out of the TAFs at this time.
Winds will vary from northwest to southwest around 5 kt,
ultimately settling out the south late in the day. Moderate-high
confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR. Winds light and variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR expected.

Thursday-Thursday night...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers for
northeast Pennsylvania/northern New Jersey.

Friday-Saturday...Generally VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
which may lead to lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday night. Winds
around 10 kt. Seas around 2 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. However,
winds will gust around 20 knots at times, and seas increase to
3-4 feet at times.

Friday-Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
Shower and storms will be possible Friday into Saturday, which
may lead to locally higher winds and waves. Seas build to 3-5
feet.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday...West winds around 5-10 mph in the morning, will
become southerly in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2
feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW
risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

For Wednesday...South winds around 10-15 mph, breaking waves
around 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. As a result, there
is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...MJL/Robertson
LONG TERM...MJL/Robertson
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL