631
FXUS61 KPHI 121838
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
238 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated all sections.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A round of showers and thunderstorms overnight then improving
conditions for Thursday.

2. Mostly quiet with seasonable temperatures in the extended
though with some rain chances, mainly on Friday and late Sunday
into Monday.

3. There is potential for minor tidal flooding during the evening
high tides this week along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and
tidal Delaware River, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A round of showers and thunderstorms overnight
then improving conditions for Thursday.

Weak high pressure is across the area as of the early afternoon
today, but this will weaken this evening. Shortwave energy
across the Great Lakes aided by an upper jet stream will cause a
disturbance to arrive from the northwest overnight. You can
already see the beginnings of this presently as showers/tstms
are developing across western NY. We have likely and categorical
POPS for showers and tstms overnight. While severe weather is
not expected, gusty winds and downpours will occur. The activity
will diminish from NW to SE around dawn. Rainfall will generally
be around one-quarter to one-half of an inch in many areas but
a few spots may end up with totals closer to an inch. On
Thursday, drier air will arrive and sunny skies are expected
much of Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly quiet with seasonable temperatures in the
extended though with some rain chances, mainly on Friday and late
Sunday into Monday.

An upper level ridge will anchor itself over the southeast US
through the weekend. Our area will be on the northern periphery of
the ridge, with a modest west/northwest flow. This will result in
seasonable temperatures through the weekend and into next week with
highs generally in the 80s.

A few shortwaves will impinge on the ridge, driving multiple rounds
of low pressure through our area. This will result in a few chances
for showers and thunderstorms, first on Friday, mainly for the
southern half of the area. More widespread rain looks to come Sunday
Night into Monday, which could also include a few thunderstorms.
However, the risk for impactful and significant weather
(severe/flash flooding) appears low at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There is potential for minor tidal flooding during
the evening high tides this week along the Atlantic coast, Delaware
Bay, and tidal Delaware River, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As we approach the New Moon Wednesday, astronomical tides for the
evening high tide cycles will increase to around a half foot below
minor flood stage in many areas this week along the Atlantic coasts
of New Jersey and Delware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware
River. With tide departures running around a half foot above average,
this will raise a threat of minor flood stage being reached for these
areas.

We will continue to monitor the tide departures in the coming total
water level forecasts. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect
for Wednesday evening`s high tide cycle. At least spotty minor tidal
flooding should be anticipated around the times of the evening high
tides this week with the potential for additional Advisories depending
on the tidal departures. The highest astronomical tides will occur
Wednesday. The threat of minor tidal flooding may linger through
Thursday or Friday as well.

Tidal flooding is not currently forecast for the Eastern Shore
of the Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.thru 00Z... VFR conditions expected but with increasing high
clouds towards sunset. Light variable winds then Southwest at 5
to 10 knots. Medium/high confid.

.Tonight... VFR for the first part of the night then increasing
and lowering CIGS. Showers and TSTMs possible moving NW to SE
across the terminals 06/07Z North/West to 11Z/12Z South/East.
Kept the PROB30 groups since confid is limited. Light South or
Southwest winds much of the night. Low/Medium confid.

.Thursday... Any low CIGS/VSBYs early will diminish and VFR
expected by 12Z-14Z at the terminals. VFR will remain the rest
of the day. Northwest winds increasing 10 to 15 kts. Medium
confid.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Friday...Primarily VFR though restrictions
possible (30-40%) with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
moving through

Friday Night through Sunday Morning...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
at times with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
anticipated.


&&

.MARINE...
No prevailing marine hazards expected tonight or Thursday.
Showers and TSTMs are expected later tonight and into Thursday
morning. Higher winds and seas in TSTMs.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday Night through Monday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as
seas near 5 feet and southerly wind gusts near 25 kt.

Rip Currents...

Rest of today...Southeasterly winds 10 to 15 kts by the late
afternoon. Breaking wave heights will remain around 2 feet or
less with a southerly 1 foot swell around 5 to 7 seconds. With
little changes in overall conditions, will continue with a LOW
risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For Thursday...A southwesterly wind around 5 to 10 mph.
Breaking wave heights will remain around 2 feet or less with a
southeasterly 1 foot swell around 6 to 8 seconds. Due to these
conditions there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at
all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for NJZ021-023-024.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hoeflich/MJL/OHara
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL/OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL/OHara