031
FXUS61 KPHI 021837
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
237 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Northeast remains in control through
the weekend and into early next week. A slightly more unsettled
pattern may begin to take shape entering mid-week, with a cold
front approaching from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aside from a fair-weather cumulus field, cool and dry conditions
for the rest of the afternoon.

Strong high pressure remains dominant across the Northeastern
US, bringing cool and dry temperatures. For tonight, nice and
cool once again. Winds will become calm though there will be
some high clouds around, so while radiational cooling will
certainly occur, we are not expecting temperatures to crater
below consensus. Lows are forecast to be in the low 40s to
around 50 (low to mid 50s along the coast), though a few
sheltered locations that see breaks in the clouds could dip into
the 30s. Some patchy frost is possible, mainly across the Pocono
Plateau, Lehigh Valley, and northwest NJ, but conditions are not
ideal at the moment to signal widespread frost.

For Friday, another fantastic fall day in store. High pressure
remains dominant with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and
light winds. Highs will only get into the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Our expansive high pressure system remains the dominant weather
feature through the short term period. This keeps the tranquil
weather pattern going into the weekend. Friday night and Saturday
night look mostly clear with minimal cloud cover. During the day
Saturday, it is a mostly sunny day. Highs on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 70s. Lows Friday night and Saturday night are mainly in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During the long term period, we do start to see some changes in our
weather pattern. The expansive high pressure system remains in
control through Monday night. Through this time period, the high
pressure system continues to shift offshore but we are still able to
feel the influence from it. This keeps the dry and tranquil
conditions going into the beginning of next week. Cloud cover
continues to be pretty minimal during this time period with mostly
clear nights and mostly sunny days. Temperatures are in the mid
70s to low 80s for highs Sunday and Monday with overnight lows
in the 50s Sunday night and mid 50s to low 60s Monday night.

Tuesday is the day we start to see some changes. When we look at the
upper-levels, we see an upper-level trough based in Ontario leading
to height falls across the region on Tuesday with the actual trough
moving eastward. By Wednesday, we see the trough continuing to move
east with a ripple of energy moving through our region. At the
surface, this will be a cold front. Overall, what this means is that
clouds will filter in on Tuesday but the day looks pretty dry until
the mid to late afternoon. This is when we start to see the
potential for some showers. The coverage on Tuesday looks more
isolated. Coverage will gradually increase Tuesday night and on
Wednesday where showers will be more scattered. There is some
variability in the speed of the cold front which will play a role in
shower coverage and timing. Tuesday will be warmer with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s with more rain-cooled air Wednesday
with highs only in the low-to-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...VFR. Winds E to ENE around 5-10 knots. Scattered
cu field this afternoon around 3500-4500 ft. High confidence.

Tonight...Remaining VFR with winds becoming light and variable.
High confidence.

Friday...VFR with winds remaining light.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions
possible with showers late.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect with seas around 5 to 8
feet. Heading into Friday, the seas will finally be diminishing
to right around or just below SCA levels with the advisory
ending for our northern most ocean zone off Monmouth County at 6
AM Friday but not until 6 PM for our remaining ocean zones.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday... Winds below 25 kt and seas
below 5 feet. No marine headlines anticipated. Fair weather.

Rip Currents...

A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
end of the week. However, the surf program ended on Tuesday,
September 30. No further surf forecasts or rip current
statements will be issued until May 2026.

Always obey posted Beach Flags. If you enter the surf zone,
always have a floatation device with you and swim near a
lifeguard if possible. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float and do not swim against the current. If able, swim
parallel to the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore
and call or wave for help.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A new Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Sussex County
due to minor coastal flooding in the back bays with this current
high tide cycle and again with the high tide cycle this evening
with the advisory going until 10 PM tonight.

For the tidal gauges along the eastern shore of the Chesapeake
Bay, the high tide cycle this evening may lead to some minor
coastal flooding but the current forecast has water levels just
below advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003-
     004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Guzzo/MJL
LONG TERM...Guzzo/MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...