263
FXUS61 KPHI 301746
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated all of the sections.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some showers around into tonight before a tranquil stretch takes
over.

2. A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the next opportunity
for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some showers around into tonight before a tranquil
stretch takes over.

A closed low will continue to gradually shift eastward and exit off
the New England coast this evening. The cyclonic flow remaining over
our area along with lingering cool air aloft is resulting in quite a
bit of cloud cover this afternoon. This looks to continue for a
while tonight before some thinning starts to occur. More clearing
may occur sooner across parts of Delmarva however. A shortwave will
rotate across our area into this evening and this will support some
showers. While a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out into this
evening, there is currently meager MLCAPE and the visible satellite
trends so far are not all that supportive for thunderstorms. As a
result, opted to remove thunder from the forecast especially given
the even lower probability. The visible satellite imagery this
afternoon also shows a weak low spinning southward off the New
Jersey coast. This feature may enhance the shower development some
along portions of the New Jersey coast. A northwesterly breeze will
ease into this evening.

Surface high pressure will then begin to settle in during tonight
with some drier air. Some guidance hinting at a few rather isolated
showers Friday afternoon, however given the closed low/trough
continuing to move away, opted to continue with a dry forecast. Some
warming aloft along with some increase in sunshine Friday will
result in warmer afternoon temperatures. Lighter flow however will
result in a sea/bay breeze developing by later in the afternoon.
Depending on how far inland this gets by early Friday evening, some
increase in the dew points should occur in its wake. Temperatures
moderate some more to start the weekend with high temperatures on
Saturday right near average along with dry conditions.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the
next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure weakens late Saturday and is replaced by advancing low
pressure from the Ohio Valley area. This low strengthens and moves
west of our area later Sunday and into Monday. This system will
bring increasing chances for showers and a few tstms Sunday
afternoon for the western counties and all areas Sunday night and
Monday. The PWAT values off the forecast soundings during these
times show more 2+ inch PWAT values for our region, so it`s possible
that excessive rainfall may develop for parts of the region. Latest
outlook from WPC shows a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Moisture and instability will also increase ahead of the front, so
we likely will have to monitor the severe weather threat for the
Sunday and Monday afternoon periods as well. However, our area is
not in any long term severe outlooks, so there is a chance that
there are more hydro concerns with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR ceilings, with some localized MVFR ceilings
lingering for a time. A few showers around, with a very small chance
of a localized thunderstorm. Used a VCSH for now given uncertainty
on coverage. Northwest to north winds 8-15 knots with some gusts to
around 20 knots, with the winds diminishing by later this afternoon.
Low confidence.

Tonight...VFR overall. A local shower possible early. North-
northeast winds diminishing to 5 knots or less, then light and
variable to locally calm. Low confidence regarding if any MVFR
ceilings develop.

Friday...VFR. North-northwest winds 5-8 knots, becoming southeast or
south-southwest in the afternoon as sea/bay breezes develop.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR but a frontal system will
slowly move through the area late Sunday into Monday, likely (60-70%
probability) resulting in restrictions at times over this period.
Some showers/storms may linger into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Friday. Northwest to north wind gusts to 20 knots
this afternoon will diminish tonight, then southerly winds develop on
Friday. The southerly winds should become enhanced some Friday
afternoon with a sea/bay breeze, and therefore some gusts to 20
knots especially nearshore are forecast.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions possible as seas
could near 5 feet and winds may gust near 25 kts. Showers and
thunderstorms also possible.

Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For this afternoon, northwest to north winds 15 to 20 mph with
breaking waves around 2 feet and a weak 2 foot 8 second
southeasterly swell. While the Full Moon was on Wednesday,
decreasing wave heights, more offshore flow, and minor 8 second
swell should limit the rip current threat. As a result, maintained
a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all
beaches.

For Friday, northwesterly winds 5 to 10 mph will give way to a
southeasterly seabreeze around 10 mph. Breaking waves linger
around 2 feet with a 2 foot 8 second southeasterly swell.
Forecasting a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorse/Hoeflich/RCM
AVIATION...Gorse/RCM
MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich/RCM