088
FXUS61 KPHI 190800
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure sets up to the north while a boundary stalls out to
the south. A trough moves in during the middle of the week as
Hurricane Erin passes offshore. As Hurricane Erin moves away, high
pressure moves in for the end of the week and into the weekend
before a frontal system moves in for the back half of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered over southern Quebec and northern New
England will dominate the weather today. The resultant breezy
NE to ENE onshore flow across the region tonight and into
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and cool conditions. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs this afternoon
about 5-10 degrees below climo, only warming into the low to mid
70s! A stationary frontal boundary lingering across Virginia
will remain as an axis for some shower development. A few
isolated light showers and some patchy drizzle will remain
possible through the morning, mainly for southern New Jersey
and the Delmarva. Some clouds may try to break this afternoon
for northern New Jersey, but not completely, staying at least
partly to mostly cloudy for the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled and cool through the middle of the week. A stalled
boundary will remain perched just south of the region with high
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. This will result in a
breezy onshore flow, which will only be enhanced by Hurricane
Erin which makes its closest pass on Thursday, bringing
dangerous rip currents and high surf (see Marine section below
for more details).

Tuesday Night will feature mostly cloudy skies with some light
showers near the stalled front, mainly over the southern half of the
region. Some patchy fog is likely as well with moist onshore flow
continuing and strengthening.

More widespread showers and maybe a rumble of thunder on Wednesday
as an upper level trough approaches, the same trough that will
eventually carry Hurricane Erin out to sea. Rain chances are around
20-40% across the region and any precipitation will be light and non
impactful. Cloudy and cool otherwise with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

Mainly dry on Wednesday Night outside of some showers near the coast
as Hurricane Erin makes it closest pass well offshore. Again, cannot
rule out some patchy fog either. Lows settle in the low to mid 60s.

Upper level trough passes on Wednesday Night into Thursday, pushing
Hurricane Erin out to sea. The main impacts being felt along
the coast with dangerous rip currents, high surf, and enhancing
onshore flow leading to tidal flooding and beach erosion.
Hurricane Erin will also enhance the pressure gradient, leading
to wind gusts up to 35 MPH at the immediate coast. Breaking
waves over 8 feet and seas offshore around 12 to 15 feet are
likely as well. Other than coastal impacts, and maybe a few
light showers around the shore, it should be a rather benign day
elsewhere with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

For the updated Hurricane Erin forecast, see the National Hurricane
Center`s website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period looks rather quiet outside of a frontal system
approaching Saturday Night into Sunday. Temperatures look to
moderate towards more normal levels towards the end of the week and
into the first half of the weekend with generally dry weather. It
will turn more unsettled with that frontal system approaching but
too early to say specific impacts with that incoming system at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...Generally VFR for all terminals. Winds generally
east- northeast at 5-10 kts.

Today...Mainly VFR except there still could be some lingering
MVFR ceilings at MIV and ACY through 14-16Z. A light shower or
patchy drizzle may briefly impact MIV and ACY as well. East
winds around 10 kts, with gusts 15-20 kts possible. Low
confidence with continued onshore flow.

Tonight...Primarily VFR...though areas of MVFR possible with
15% chance of showers and 10-20% chance of fog developing.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...Restrictions likely
(60-80%) with scattered showers and patchy fog.

Thursday...Primarily VFR, though cannot rule out some restrictions
with patchy fog and stratus in the morning. Wind gusts 25-30 kt
possible at KACY, 20-25 kt at KMIV, and 20 kt elsewhere.

Thursday Night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions on the ocean zones through the
period. Northeast winds around 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25
knots through this evening. Seas 5 to 8 feet through Tuesday
evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Saturday...A Small Craft Advisory is in
place for all ocean zones through Friday as seas associated with
Hurricane Erin gradually build, peaking up to 15 feet on
Thursday as Erin makes her closest pass to the New Jersey and
Delaware coast. Seas of 5 to 8 feet are expected Tuesday Night
through most of Wednesday night, with 10 to 15 seas anticipated
Thursday morning through early Friday morning, gradually waning
into the weekend.

Winds will be out of the northeast and generally remain below 25 kt
through Wednesday, before picking up Wednesday Night. Winds peak on
Thursday with Gale conditions possible (50-55%) with gusts near/over
35 kt. Winds gradually wane Thursday Night into Friday, and get
below 25 kt by Friday afternoon. Lingering 5 foot seas or higher
could continue into the weekend.

Rip currents...

Through today, northeast to east winds 10-25 mph. Breaking
waves of 3-6 feet in the surf zone. Increasing long period
swells propagating from Hurricane Erin are expected to begin
arriving on Tuesday. Given these factors, a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents continues for the Jersey
Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For Wednesday, northeast to east winds 10-20 mph. Building seas
will lead to breaking waves in the surf zone are forecast to
build into the 5-8 foot range. A high surf advisory has been
issue for Wednesday, with conditions worsening through the day
as long period southeasterly swells (15-18 seconds) associated
with Hurricane Erin continue. Due to the dangerous conditions, a
HIGH risk for the development of life threatening rip currents
continues for the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For Thursday, northeast to east winds 20-30 mph with gusts to
35-40 mph possible. High surf advisories remain in effect for
breaking waves in the surf zone as high as 12 feet. Dangerous
surf zone conditions will remain through the day with long
period southeasterly swells (15-18 seconds) still associated
with Hurricane Erin. There will be a HIGH risk for the
development of life threatening rip currents continues for the
Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches on Thursday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Prolonged onshore flow will result in periods of tidal flooding
this week. Tidal flooding working up the tidal portion of the
Delaware Bay this evening should be spotty minor.

Water will slowly pile up as onshore flow continues through at
least Thursday. Swells from Hurricane Erin will also enhance
the threat for tidal flooding and push of water onshore,
especially as it gets closer to Wednesday into Thursday.
Areas of minor tidal flooding look to occur Tuesday afternoon
and evening, with more widespread minor coastal flooding occurring
Wednesday and especially Thursday. It is possible some locations
especially from Atlantic City southward to the coast of
Delaware and into Delaware Bay near moderate coastal flooding
thresholds Thursday. Stay updated on the latest forecasts and
be aware of any additional Coastal Flood Advisories, Watches or
Warnings that are issued.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for DEZ004.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Deal/MJL
SHORT TERM...Deal/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Deal/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Cooper/Deal/Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Deal/Gorse/Hoeflich/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI