129
FXUS61 KPHI 050542
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
142 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a dissipating cold front crossing the region
early this morning, surface high pressure builds in for the
weekend. A stronger cold front will cross the region early
monday. Surface high pressure then controls the region through
the rest of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dissipating cold front will cross the region over the next few
hours. With only modest air flow change, think we`ll continue to
see some patchy low clouds and fog particularly northwest of the
I-95 corridor til dawn. Don`t expect a dense fog advisory but
will continue monitoring. Spotty showers have likely ended
though will maintain slight chance/isolated POPs rest of the
overnight.

High pressure builds southward into the region for Saturday,
with relatively light northerly winds and plenty of sunshine.
Highs should tick up a bit compared to yesterday, with mid-upper
70s common and a few spots sneaking up to 80.

Radiational cooling will predominate tonight with the high
passing to the north and northeast and winds lightening under
clear skies. Lows mostly in the 40s...coldest spots in the
Poconos could touch the 30s, with warmer urban and coastal
locations in the 50s.

Winds become easterly as the high shifts further east on Sunday,
then shift southerly late. This modest oceanic influence,
combined with a cooler start, may be enough to keep Sunday just
slightly cooler than Saturday, but guidance has gotten closer
together for highs compared to 24 hours ago. All-in-all, its the
sunny weekend we`ve all be waiting for after what feels like a
month of clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front looks to cross through the region Sunday night into
early Monday morning with surface high pressure then building in
behind. Scattered to widespread shower activity anticipated
during the Sunday night period thanks to the cold front. Nothing
of significance to note regarding the expected shower activity
Sunday night; no severe weather, excessive rainfall, flooding
concerns to address. A couple rumbles of thunder may occur. Dry
forecast for the majority of Monday, skies clearing out by mid-
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The region will be influenced by surface high pressure through
the duration of the long term. Surface high pressure will be
centered well to our west Monday night and will gradually move
eastward with time. Surface high pressure could be centered over
or near the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley for
Thursday/Friday.

Not really much to say regarding this forecast; dry forecast
through the term with surface high pressure holding control over
the region. A dry, secondary cold front may come through the
region around the Tuesday night time frame, but precipitation is
not currently expected with this feature. Temperatures through
the term are mainly forecast to be right around to just slightly
below average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...MVFR restrictions likely enough to put tempo
groups into all TAFs, but IFR most likely KABE/KRDG with some
fog and very low cigs. Light winds. Moderate confidence.

12Z this morning through this afternoon...VFR. Winds becoming
NNW 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds generally N 5 kts or less. High
confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Winds E becoming S 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers at most
sites.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather
anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
though tonight, with winds northwesterly 10-15 kts shifting
northeasterly by tonight at 5-10 kts. Seas 3-4 ft early,
dropping to 2-3 feet tonight.

Small Craft Advisory may be necessary by late Sunday with seas
building to near 5 ft. Winds easterly 5-10 kts then southerly
10-15 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions anticipated,
seas 5-7 feet. Showers likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
Thereafter, fair weather.

Tuesday through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Fair weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...RCM/Wunderlin
MARINE...RCM/Wunderlin