060
FXUS61 KPHI 311012
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
612 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The timing of the late weekend/early next week frontal system
has slowed a bit, with Sunday now looking mostly dry and most
precipitation coming in Sunday Night into Monday.

A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall was added for areas along
and north/west of the I-95 corridor on Monday.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Tranquil weather takes over through Saturday though a few
very isolated sea-breeze showers cannot be ruled out this
afternoon.

2. A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the next
opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Increasing
confidence in potential heavy rain on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Tranquil weather takes over through Saturday
though a few very isolated sea-breeze showers cannot be ruled
out this afternoon.

Showers have dissipated for tonight and we should be dry through
the rest of the morning. However, some patchy fog could develop
given the residual ground moisture and some clearing of clouds,
particularly in sheltered areas. While confidence is not high
in fog development, went ahead and kept patchy fog in the forecast
given the potential for lowered visibilities in spots. Any fog
mixes out by 7-8 AM.

Surface high pressure settles in today with drier air moving in. Some
guidance hinting at a few rather isolated showers this
afternoon, mainly focused along the sea and bay breeze. Did add
a mention of showers near the NJ and Delaware coast, but only
15% for a brief period this afternoon. A large majority today
will stay dry however given the closed low/trough continuing to
move away. Some warming aloft along with some increase in
sunshine Friday will result in warmer afternoon temperatures.
Lighter flow however will result in a sea/bay breeze developing
by later in the afternoon. Depending on how far inland this gets
by early Friday evening, some increase in the dew points should
occur in its wake. Temperatures moderate some more to start the
weekend with high temperatures on Saturday right near average
along with dry conditions.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will
bring the next opportunity for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Increasing confidence in potential heavy rain on
Monday.

High pressure weakens late Saturday and is replaced by
advancing low pressure from the Ohio Valley area. This low
strengthens and moves west of our area later Sunday and into
Monday. This system will bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms later Sunday, with a bulk of the precipitation
coming moreso on Monday. The PWAT values off the forecast
soundings during these times show more 2+ inch PWAT values for
our region, so it`s possible that excessive rainfall may develop
for parts of the region. WPC did add a Slight Risk (2/4) for
excessive rainfall on Monday for the I-95 corridor and points
north and west.  Moisture and instability will also increase
ahead of the front, so we likely will have to monitor the severe
weather threat for the Sunday and Monday afternoon periods as
well. However, our area is not in any long term severe outlooks,
and it is looking increasingly more likely that there are more
hydro concerns with this system.

Guidance continues to show this as a slow moving system with a
frontal boundary either stalling over our area or slowly pushing
to south and east. This could result in another stretch of
unsettled weather through next week. The current forecast does
have showers/thunderstorm chances each day next week, mainly in
the afternoon and evening. Important to note though that each
day other than maybe Monday will have periods of tranquil
weather but it does turn to look more active after Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds mainly west/northwesterly around 5 to 8 kt
though an afternoon sea-breeze will turn winds more
south/southwesterly, getting to KACY by 19z-20z, KMIV by
21z-22z, and the I-95 terminals around 23z-00z. High confidence
in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in timing of wind shifts.

Tonight...VFR. Winds generally light and variable to calm at 5
kt or less, though a southerly direction may be favored at
times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday Morning...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions
expected at times with a slow moving frontal system moving
through. VFR conditions should mix in with IFR/MVFR conditions
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Saturday Night. Light
northwesterly winds around 5 to 10 kt with will transition to
southerly winds around 10-15 kt for this afternoon, overnight
period, and for Saturday. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions likely
(60-70%) as seas could near 5 feet and winds may gust near 25
kts. Showers and thunderstorms also possible during this period.

Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For today, light winds less than 10 MPH are expected at all the
beaches, starting out northwesterly, then transitioning to a
more southerly direction with a sea-breeze forming. Breaking
waves of 2 feet or less, combined with a dominant wave period of
less than 8 seconds will result in a LOW risk for the
development of rip currents at all beaches.

For Saturday, south/southeasterly flow will strengthen a bit
with either shore parallel or slightly onshore winds around
10-15 MPH. However, wave heights still should be around 2 feet
or less, with an 8 second dominant wave period. This will
mitigate the rip current risk and result in another day of LOW
risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorse/Hoeflich/RCM
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...Hoeflich