280
FXUS61 KPHI 302331
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
731 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. Some patchy
fog is possible overnight tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some showers around into tonight before a tranquil stretch
takes over.

2. A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the next
opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some showers around into tonight before a
tranquil stretch takes over.

A closed low will continue to gradually shift eastward and exit
off the New England coast this evening. The cyclonic flow
remaining over our area along with lingering cool air aloft is
resulting in quite a bit of cloud cover this afternoon. This
looks to continue for a while tonight before some thinning
starts to occur. More clearing may occur sooner across parts of
Delmarva however. A shortwave will rotate across our area into
this evening and this will support some showers. While a few
lightning strikes cannot be ruled out into this evening, there
is currently meager MLCAPE and the visible satellite trends so
far are not all that supportive for thunderstorms. As a result,
opted to remove thunder from the forecast especially given the
even lower probability. The visible satellite imagery this
afternoon also shows a weak low spinning southward off the New
Jersey coast. This feature may enhance the shower development
some along portions of the New Jersey coast. A northwesterly
breeze will ease into this evening. As the breeze lessens, it is
not out of the question that some patchy fog could develop
given the residual ground moisture and some clearing of clouds,
particularly in sheltered areas. While confidence is not high in
fog development, went ahead and included patchy fog with this
forecast update given the potential for lowered visibilities in
spots.

Surface high pressure will then begin to settle in during
tonight with some drier air. Some guidance hinting at a few
rather isolated showers Friday afternoon, however given the
closed low/trough continuing to move away, opted to continue
with a dry forecast. Some warming aloft along with some increase
in sunshine Friday will result in warmer afternoon
temperatures. Lighter flow however will result in a sea/bay
breeze developing by later in the afternoon. Depending on how
far inland this gets by early Friday evening, some increase in
the dew points should occur in its wake. Temperatures moderate
some more to start the weekend with high temperatures on
Saturday right near average along with dry conditions.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will
bring the next opportunity for widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

High pressure weakens late Saturday and is replaced by
advancing low pressure from the Ohio Valley area. This low
strengthens and moves west of our area later Sunday and into
Monday. This system will bring increasing chances for showers
and a few tstms Sunday afternoon for the western counties and
all areas Sunday night and Monday. The PWAT values off the
forecast soundings during these times show more 2+ inch PWAT
values for our region, so it`s possible that excessive rainfall
may develop for parts of the region. Latest outlook from WPC
shows a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Moisture and
instability will also increase ahead of the front, so we likely
will have to monitor the severe weather threat for the Sunday
and Monday afternoon periods as well. However, our area is not
in any long term severe outlooks, so there is a chance that
there are more hydro concerns with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Primarily VFR. A few showers around this evening
could lead to brief restrictions. North to north-northwest winds
5-10 kts this evening, becoming light and variable to locally
calm after around 03Z. Some patchy fog is also possible
overnight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Moderate confidence overall, low confidence in
restrictions due to showers or patchy fog.

Friday...VFR. North-northwest winds 5-10 kts, gradually turning
southwest through the day for most terminals. MIV and ACY may
see winds turning southerly or southeasterly during the
afternoon given probable sea-breeze development. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR but a frontal system will
slowly move through the area late Sunday into Monday, likely (60-70%
probability) resulting in restrictions at times over this period.
Some showers/storms may linger into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Friday. Northwest to north wind gusts to 20 knots
this afternoon will diminish tonight, then southerly winds develop on
Friday. The southerly winds should become enhanced some Friday
afternoon with a sea/bay breeze, and therefore some gusts to 20
knots especially nearshore are forecast.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions possible as seas
could near 5 feet and winds may gust near 25 kts. Showers and
thunderstorms also possible.

Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, light west-northwest wind in the morning will
transition to south-southeast winds in the afternoon around 10
to 15 mph. Breaking wave heights are expected to remain around 1
to 2 feet with a 2 foot 7 to 8 second southeasterly swell. Have
opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents at all beaches.

For Saturday, light southerly winds in the morning around 5 to
10 mph will increase in the afternoon to around 10 to 20 mph.
Breaking wave heights will range between 1 to 3 feet with a 2
foot 7 to 8 second southeasterly swell. As a result, went with a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all
beaches. However, could consider a MODERATE at some
southeastward facing beaches late in the day.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Gorse/Hoeflich/RCM
AVIATION...Cooper/Gorse/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse/Hoeflich/RCM