100
FXUS61 KPHI 072152
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
552 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north later tonight, then lifts
north of the area Sunday as another area of low pressure moves
eastward across Virginia and the Delmarva Sunday night through
Monday morning. Another cold front passes through the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night. Much warmer and drier weather will settle
over the area Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front is presently crossing the forecast area from NW
to SE. Its now across southern NJ and Northern DE. The area of
tstms that developed earlier has weakened to just showers with
a few downpours added in. Don`t expect any significant weather
this evening with the front across Southern DE and the eastern
shore of MD, but a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Winds
have turned Northwest behind the front and will switch to North
then Northeast overnight. Another warm and muggy night on tap
with fog and stratus developing in the developing.

On Sunday our area will be north of the front in a stable
easterly flow between high pressure over New England and low
pressure moving eastward across Virginia and lower Delmarva.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop to the north of
the front by late morning and continue throughout much of the
afternoon. Deeper surface-based convection will remain south of
the front, which at this time should stay well south and west
of our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms taper off Sunday night especially
after midnight, and then high pressure noses in from the north.
While we dry out, skies remain mostly cloudy. Lows get into the
upper 50s/low 60s

Conditions should be dry most of the day Monday, but another upper
trough with a strong surface cold front moves through the Great
Lakes and into the Ohio Valley during the day. Some shortwave energy
spinning off ahead of that trough may trigger some afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly for the Lehigh Valley and
Poconos, but the bulk of the activity holds off until late Monday
night as that front gets closer, and activity will mainly be focused
on the far western areas. Temperatures get into the low to mid 70s
during the day, then drop into the low to mid 60s Monday Night,
feeling quite muggy.

Another active weather day on tap for Tuesday with showers likely
with a chance for thunderstorms as low pressure develops on that
front and moves through the region during the day. Guidance has sped
up with the timing of the low and associated front moving through,
with now Tuesday morning through the early afternoon looking the
most wet. Things may in fact clear out for the most part by the
evening. Temperatures get into the 70s, with muggy conditions
continuing until the front comes through Tuesday Night.

While Sunday Night through Tuesday looks unsettled, the threat for
any hazardous weather (severe or flash flooding) is low. Instability
will be low, which limits the threat for severe thunderstorms and
heavy downpours. QPF amounts Sunday through Tuesday are around a
half inch to an inch for the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, with a half
inch or less elsewhere. Locally higher amounts are possible, but not
enough to cause any significant issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front moves offshore on Tuesday Night, though it won`t
usher in a cooler airmass. In fact, we transition to a more summer-
like pattern Wednesday onward. Ridging builds in, with high pressure
setting off to the southwest. This will usher in a warm
west/southwesterly flow, with temperatures getting to above normal
levels through the end of the week. Looking at highs in the low to
mid 80s on Wednesday with a shot at 90 within the urban corridor on
Thursday and Friday. NBM Probability of highs 90 or more currently
hover around 20-40% for the end of the week for Philadelphia.

Dry and mostly clear skies Tuesday Night through Friday before a
shortwave dives in from the northwest on Friday Night. This may drag
a front through and bring temperatures to more seasonable levels for
the weekend, but also potentially bring a few showers and
thunderstorms, primarily on Saturday. Still a week out though and
the long term as a whole looks warm and quiet.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR becoming MVFR after midnight in low ceilings.
Light NE winds.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in low ceilings and showers. East wind 5 to 10
knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...IFR/MVFR conditions expected with scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms and low clouds.

Monday...MVFR conditions possible, though primarily VFR expected.

Monday Night...VFR/MVFR conditions to start, with IFR probable (60-
80%) by daybreak Tuesday with showers moving in.

Tuesday...IFR expected with 60-80% chance of showers. Conditions
could improve to MVFR or VFR even later in the day.

Tuesday Night...Lingering restrictions possible (20-30%) for the
first part of the night, but improvement to VFR expected overall.

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory was taken down just before 6 PM. The front
will continue crossing the waters this evening and surface winds
will turn N then NE around 10 kt behind it. Seas will remain mostly
around 3 ft overnight. On Sunday, East winds around 10 knots are
expected with seas 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Some
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters on Tuesday.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, the wave heights will diminish slightly but the
flow will turn more onshore. There will continue to be a medium
period swell around 7 to 9 seconds with some longer period wave
groups as well continuing. For these reasons, a MODERATE risk of
rip currents will continue. It appears that MODERATE risk will
also continue into Monday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franklin/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Franklin/MPS/po
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/MPS
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Franklin/Hoeflich
MARINE...Franklin/Hoeflich/po