045
FXUS61 KPHI 101954
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
254 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks by to our north through the rest of today with
its cold front crossing our region overnight tonight. High pressure
builds in to our south Thursday as low pressure continues to depart
through Atlantic Canada. A series of weak inconsequential
disturbances move through Friday into early Saturday. A somewhat
stronger system may affect the area with some snow Saturday night
into Sunday as low pressure may form along an arctic cold front as
it moves south and eastward through the area. Arctic high pressure
will then dominate our weather to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A clipper system over the Great Lakes continues its move north
and east across the Northeast and through New England tonight.
Resultant precip across the region this afternoon will continue
pushing east ahead of an advancing cold front that will pass
through tonight. The greatest risk for snow remains across the
Poconos with a wintry mix still possible across the high
elevations on the Lehigh Valley and northwestern NJ, though the
risk has diminished given the precip did not begin until this
afternoon. Elsewhere, precipitation will remain primarily rain
and taper off late this afternoon and through the early evening
hours.

The cold front moves through tonight and will be mostly dry as
it pushes through. Behind the front, however, WNW winds pick up
again and usher in a cold airmass. Lows will fall into the upper
teens for the Poconos with temps in the 20s to around 30
elsewhere. WNW winds ramp up to around 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph after midnight. Resultant wind chills will fall into
the single digits across the Poconos and into the teens and 20s.
elsewhere.

Gusty W-WNW winds will persist on Thursday, ramping up to 15-20
mph with frequent gusts up to 30-35 mph during the afternoon.
This will continue to support strong cold air advection across
the region, keeping afternoon highs in the teens and 20s with
only a few locations across the Philly Metro and Delmarva
touching 30.

While most of the region will see a dry, cold, and windy
Thursday, this weather pattern is very favorable for the
potential for snow showers and possibly snow squalls streaming
in from the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings show steepening
low-level lapse rates along with a stream of low-level moisture
advecting in from the Great Lakes. High res guidance shows the
potential for snow showers and snow squalls developing across
northeast PA and northern NJ. High confidence for snow squalls
are around Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA with the potential
extending across the rest of the I-80 corridor into the Lehigh
Valley and northern NJ. Also can`t fully rule out a quick snow
shower or snow squall as far south as the I-78 corridor. While
total snowfall accumulation may not be impressive, the gusty
winds, low visibilities, and potential for flash freezes make
snow squalls incredibly dangerous for anyone on the road!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weather pattern through the short term will continue to be
dominated by a broad upper level trough over eastern North America
keeping temperatures below average. For Thursday night, deep low
pressure will continue to move northward through Atlantic Canada as
high pressure moves across the SE US. The pressure gradient between
these two systems will result in continuing gusty winds into early
evening but the winds should gradually diminish with time. However
they will not go calm and should still be at around 10 mph out of
the west by Friday morning. Lows will generally be in the low to mid
20s (teens over NW NJ and the southern Poconos) but the wind chill
will make it feel several degrees colder than this.

Friday through Friday night, there will be a series of weak
disturbances moving through the upper level flow and these could
bring a few flurries to the area at times but nothing significant is
expected. The highest POPs are still for Friday night but even then
POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent. Otherwise expect considerable
cloud cover around Friday through Saturday with below average
temperatures. Highs Friday will be mainly in the 30s with
temperatures warming by several degrees into Saturday ahead of the
next cold front. Lows Friday night will range from the mid/upper
teens north to the 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The overall weather pattern doesn`t change much to start the long
term as yet another blast of arctic air is slated to move move in
for the end of the weekend into the new week. The other main story
will be the next in a series of clipper type systems that could
bring a little snow for Saturday into early Sunday.

For Saturday night into Sunday, a deepening upper level trough moves
from the Great Lakes towards the east coast. This will occur as an
arctic front moves southward into the region. Forecast guidance
continues to indicate that a wave of low pressure may try to form
along this boundary as it reaches the mid Atlantic which could bring
at least parts of the area some light snow. The time frame for this
if it occurs would be Saturday night into Sunday morning. It needs
to be stressed though that this 3 to 4 days out and there remains a
large spread in our forecast guidance regarding this system as there
are several moving pieces. Some guidance moves the cold front though
quickly and barely develops the wave at all which would mean we`d
just get some flurries. Other guidance indicates a low forming near
or just south of the area bringing a general 1 to 3 inches of snow
for much of our forecast area. This would be the snowiest case
scenario for the I-95 corridor and points south as there`s even
model guidance developing a stronger wave meaning warm air advection
associated with it would result in mainly rain near the coastal
plain with accumulating snow staying mainly N/W of the I-95
corridor. Given this uncertainty, we stayed close to the National
Blend of Models (NBM) for the long term forecast. This results in
roughly 40 to 50 percent POPs for some light snow Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Once the front passes offshore by midday Sunday
it will be quite cold and breezy. Lows Saturday night look to be
mainly in the 20s with highs Sunday only a few degrees warmer than
this...mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s. However winds Sunday into
sunday night will be NW at least 10 to 15 gusting up to 20-30 mph.
This will result in wind chills in the teens during the day Sunday
and as low as the single digits Sunday night!

Monday remains very cold and continuing at least somewhat breezy as
the arctic high builds in to our south while low pressure continues
to pull away through the Canadian Maritimes. Highs will be mainly in
the 20s to low 30s but with the wind chill it will feel more like
the teens to low 20s. It should at least be partly sunny and dry.

High pressure looks to dominate heading into the middle of next week
bringing continuing cold and dry weather. There will be some
moderation in temperatures but it will still remain below average.
By Wednesday highs look to range from the mid 30s north to the low
to mid 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR for the next hour or so
before precip arrives with MVFR conditions west to east this
afternoon. Mainly RA, but a brief period of -RASN or -SN across
RDG/ABE cannot be ruled out. High chance of snow further north
and west. For KTTN- KPNE- KPHL- KILG, VFR, lowering to MVFR
after 20Z in RA. For KMIV/KACY...Conds should remain VFR
throughout the day, though brief MVFR conds possible late in the
day in RA. S-SW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to
10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...Any MVFR conds lift to VFR from 03Z-06Z, then VFR. SW
winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W-NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt after 06Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Thursday...VFR overall. A few snow showers possible near mainly
KABE in the afternoon and evening. West-northwest winds 15-20
knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Low confidence in snow
shower potential, but high confidence overall.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR but still some wind gusts of 20-30 knots
possible into the early evening.

Friday through Saturday...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Saturday night through Sunday....A period of sub-VFR conditions and
some snow possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. West to west-
northwest winds may gust to 20-25 knots during the day Sunday into
Sunday night.

Monday...VFR with no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings over the coastal waters remain up through this
evening for strong southwesterly flow. Winds across all marine
zones will diminish to SCA criteria overnight and into Thursday
morning, but Gale conditions are expected to return during the
daytime hours of Thursday into the evening as WNW winds ramp up
behind a cold front. Marine headlines will be adjusted tonight
when winds are expected to diminish into SCA criteria.

Seas 6-10 feet this evening will diminish to 3 to 6 feet
Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Gales Thursday evening diminishing some
overnight.

Friday through Friday night...Conditions should be below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

Saturday and Sunday...Small Craft Advisory probable. Gale force wind
gusts possible, mostly during Sunday into Sunday night.

Monday...Small Craft Advisory level conditions likely.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-
     055-060>062.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...MJL/MPS
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/MPS
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MPS