374
FXUS61 KPHI 072038
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
438 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High pressure will bring continuing tranquil conditions through
Wednesday.

2. A cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing the potential
for a round of showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring continuing tranquil conditions
through Wednesday.

High pressure over the area will continue to bring dry and tranquil
weather for the next few days. For the rest of today and Tuesday,
mostly sunny skies are expected with highs generally in the mid 70s
to mid 80s, with Tuesday being a few degrees warmer than today.
Temps at night will cool off a bit, with lows mainly in the 50s due
to light winds and clear skies. Right along the coast, the Delaware
Bay, and the Philly metro area it will be a bit warmer with lows in
the low 60s.

By Wednesday, the center of high pressure will shift offshore leading
to southwest return flow setting up. This will result in a continuing
warming trend with conditions also turning a bit more humid as dew
points increase. However, it will be partly to mostly sunny with any
showers/storms staying well north of the area through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing
the potential for a round of showers and storms.

As the high moves away, it will allow low pressure to the north
to move by and usher a cold front across our region. The front
will tap into some of the heat and humidity to create scattered
showers and a few tstms. It`s possible that a few of the showers
may arrive towards dawn across the southern Poconos and north NJ
where chance POPs are in the fcst. It could end up being a rather
uneventful FROPA as it may move through during the morning hours
when the heating will be minimized. We`ll continue with the chance
POPs for the area attm. Mostly morning rains N/W and afternoon S/E.

Following the front, cooler and drier air arrives for Friday and
much of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds light and variable to near calm at times.
High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 3-8 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night thru Wednesday...NSW. VFR expected.

Thursday thru Thursday night...Lower CIGS/VSBYs possible with
scattered showers or a few tstms.

Friday and Saturday...VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday. Winds will
remain around 10 kt or less through Tuesday morning before
increasing Tuesday afternoon out of the southwest around 10-15 kt.
Seas of 1-2 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Winds/seas expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels. Fair weather.

Wednesday through Thursday....Winds/seas increasing through the
day Wednesday with low end SCA conditions probable by Wednesday
afternoon which should last into Thursday. For Thursday and
Thursday night, there will be chances for showers and TSTMs for
the waters.

Friday...Winds/seas expected to once again be below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday, northwest winds 5-10 mph in the morning will turn
south to southwesterly in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be
around 1 to 2 feet. Light northeasterly swell around 9 seconds
in length. Given these factors, have opted to maintain the LOW
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for all shore
points.

For Wednesday, south to southwest winds of 5-10 mph in the
morning will increase to 10-20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking
waves of 1-2 feet in the morning will increase to 2-3 feet in
the afternoon. Light easterly swell around 10 seconds in length.
For now, have opted for a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents for all shore points. If winds trend in a
more shore-normal direction, at least some shore points could
warrant an upgrade to MODERATE risk in future forecast updates.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara
AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...Cooper/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara