198
FXUS61 KPHI 232359
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
659 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will be in a cool and brisk northwest flow through
Sunday as we are between low pressure over Nova Scotia and high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley. The area of high pressure
will be centered over the Eastern United States late Sunday into
Monday. The next fast moving cold front is expected to cross
our region Tuesday. A coastal low will be near our region
Thanksgiving into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We`ll remain on the fringes of a ~975mb low departing Nova
Scotia through Sunday. The low will continue to depart and
deepen as it lifts toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence into
tonight. As a result, cool and brisk northwest flow is
anticipated as the tight pressure gradient holds its grip over
the region.

Northwest flow should subside a bit this evening, however
gradient winds will remain elevated near 10-15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph possible overnight. Lows will range from the mid
30s to low 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Weak high pressure will settle towards our southwest by late in
the day Sunday. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and WNW
continuing near 15-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph through early
afternoon, beginning to lessen by late afternoon. High
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, a few degrees warmer
than we experienced today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The end of the weekend and into early next week look to feature
fair weather as high pressure continues across the area.
Temperatures will be a bit above normal and the winds will be
less gusty compared to Saturday. After lows in the low/mid 30s
Sunday night, highs on Monday will climb into the low/mid 50s
for many areas. Readings could reach 60 across far southern
Delaware.

The next disturbance is slated to develop across OH/IN later
Monday and it looks to head across the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday with possible redevelopment off the New England coast
later Tue. It will be a quickly moving system which should bring
rains to the area Monday night/Tue. Temperatures should
continue to be above normal thru the period, so rain is expected
for all areas attm. Rainfall amounts will only be a quarter of
an inch across the north and across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will include the Thanksgiving holiday and
for many that means travel across the area. We`ll begin the long
term rather dry as high pressure will be over the area from
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. It`ll be seasonably
cool/cold too with highs mostly in the mid/upper 40s and lows
close to freezing in most spots.

The weather for Wednesday night and much of Thursday will be
determined by the path of a low pressure system which is
expected to develop across the Tenn. or lower Ohio Valley and
track to the east. A few forecasts model have a low moving to
the Tidewater area of VA and the deepening as it moves up the
coast. This would allow plenty of clouds and rain for our
region. Up across the far north, it could be cold enough for
snow to occur too. Other forecast models either don`t have the
low, or show it weaker and further north. For now, we`ll
continue with the NBM fcst for our area which depicts either
high chance to low likely pops for our forecast region. Rain
will predominate, but snow is also mentioned for north NJ and
the southern Poconos. Temperatures will continue a little below
normal for late November. Chances for showers will linger Friday
and Friday evening as the system departs to the NE. Colder air
arrives later Friday, so some chances for snow across more of NJ
and north of Philadelphia are possible. Stay tuned for more
updates with this system, since we will be monitoring it into
early next week and more details will become available as we get
closer to the time of the event.

Cold air pours in behind the departing storm for next weekend.
Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal with a
decent breeze too. Just in time for the change of months.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with scattered to broken cloud cover. West winds
around 10-15 kts, occasionally gusting up to 20 kts.

Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday...Brief period of MVFR possible with
rain. W winds gusting up to 30 KT Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday... sub-VFR probable. Rain & fog, low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
The Gale Warning was extended through tonight for all Atlantic
coastal waters and the Delaware Bay, and through Sunday morning
for the Atlantic waters north of Atlantic City. Latest guidance
indicates an increasing potential for yet another period of
wind gusts near gale force by around midnight or so,
potentially lasting about 2-4 hours, potentially lingering into
the morning north of Atlantic City.

Northwest winds around 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts
possible through tonight. Winds will gradually subside into
Sunday to 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Seas of 4 to 7
feet.

Outlook...

Monday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Fair.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Expect an abrupt shift to W winds
behind a cold front Tuesday morning. Wind gusts up to 30 kt
expected behind the front. Winds drop off late Tue night.
Occasional rain.

Wednesday...Winds should remain below 25 KT before dawn
Wednesday while seas diminish below 5 ft. sub-SCA conditions are
expected through Wednesday night. Fair.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Driest autumn (Sep-Nov) on record, and any 3-calendar month
period on record, plus current status as of 6 PM, Nov 22:

                   9/1-11/22   Driest          Driest 3         Year/
Site              2024 precip  Autumn Year  Calendar months    months
Allentown (ABE)       2.86      3.81  1922      3.58        Oct-Dec 1928
A.C. Airport (ACY)    2.23      3.34  2001      2.35        Oct-Dec 1946
A.C. Marina (55N)     1.61      2.89  1941      2.52        Aug-Oct 1895
Georgetown (GED)      1.41      2.67  2001      2.20        Aug-Oct 2024
Mount Pocono (MPO)    5.06      4.21  1931      3.36        Oct-Dec 1928
Philadelphia (PHL)    2.20      2.37  1922      2.37        Sep-Nov 1922
Reading (RDG)         2.34      2.89  1922      2.89        Sep-Nov 1922
Trenton (TTN)         2.12      3.18  1922      2.66        Jun-Aug 1966
Wilmington (ILG)      1.85      3.17  1922      3.17        Sep-Nov 1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-452>455.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Franklin/Johnson/OHara
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Franklin/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Franklin/OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...Franklin/OHara/Staarmann
CLIMATE...RCM/Staarmann