194
FXUS61 KPHI 221914
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
214 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger nearby through today. The low will
then gradually move away through the weekend. Weak high pressure
briefly arrives for later Sunday and Monday, followed by a cold
front Monday night into Tuesday. A low pressure system may
affect the area around the Thanksgiving Day timeframe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
210 PM...As of early this afternoon, low pressure continues to
retrograde north and westward and has moved from NY State into
NE PA. This system has become "vertically stacked" meaning it`s
basically collocated with a large upper level low. Precip
continues to pinwheel around the system from NW to SE making its
way into our forecast area. With temperatures generally in the
low to mid 30s across our northern zones over NE PA into NW NJ,
it continues to fall mainly as wet snow in the higher elevations
with some mixing below 1000 feet or so. Higher elevations could
get another inch or so of snow before it starts to wind down
towards this evening. Winter Storm Warning remains in effect
until 4 PM for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA with a Winter
Weather Advisory until this time for Northampton County in PA
as well as Warren, Sussex, and Morris Counties in NJ. Farther
south, there has even been some snow mixing in with the rain
towards the I-95 corridor however it`s too warm for anything to
really stick. Things won`t change too much through this
afternoon with periods of light snow/rain continuing across the
area.

Heading into the evening and overnight periods, light snow/rain
will gradually diminish with time from NW to SE. It should be
mainly out of our eastern PA zones by the overnight period but
may linger most of the night closer to the coast (though near
the coast it should be mainly just rain). Any additional snow
accumulation in the north should be very little (less than an
inch), if any. Winds will stay elevated and it will remain
relatively cloudy, so have lows mostly above freezing except in
the Poconos and NW NJ.

For Saturday, the low continues to pull away from the area as it
moves into the Canadian Maritimes. This should help bring us at
least some partial sunshine, especially south. Highs will
rebound around 10 degrees from today, though again, with the
gusty wind it will feel cooler. Generally expect NW winds 15 to
20 gusting up to 30 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Overall, the short term forecast looks to be dry as the closed
upper low and surface low continue to depart and strengthen
offshore. However, the increasing strength of the offshore low will
place us on the fringe of a tight pressure gradient with high
pressure settling to our southwest. Winds will be out of the
west to northwest around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph
Saturday night and 20-30 mph on Sunday. Lows Saturday night
will be mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s. High temperatures
on Sunday are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s for most
locations.

As the low continues to move further away Sunday night, a weak
ridge with the aforementioned high pressure begin to build into
the region. This will help relax the pressure gradient and
Sunday night will be less breezy as a result. Dry conditions
continue with lows in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THe brief period of ridging continues Monday bringing dry and
tranquil weather. Highs remain forecast to be mainly in the 50s
except for some low 60s over our southern most zones in
Delmarva and South Jersey and some 40s over the southern
Poconos.

The next system will affect the area Monday night into Tuesday
as an upper level trough and associated surface low move
eastward through Ontario into Quebec. This will drag a cold
front through the area with some showers mainly for the Monday
night into early Tuesday time frame. This system will be
relatively moisture starved so not expecting large precip
amounts. Tuesday will still be relatively mild with high
temperatures similar to Monday but will be followed by colder
but dry weather for Wednesday as high pressure briefly returns.
Expect highs Wednesday mainly in the 40s to around 50 except 30s
in the Poconos.

As we turn our attention to the end of next week, most of our
available model guidance indicates a low pressure system
developing and affecting the east coast around about
Thanksgiving Day into that night. However given that this is
still several days out, there is lots of uncertainty regarding
the system`s strength, track, and overall evolution including
timing. The track will help determine precip type (rain, snow,
or a mix) but it`s worth mentioning this looks like a setup
where there won`t be a strong, cold antecedent high. Therefore,
currently not looking like the best setup for a major snowstorm
in the urban corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...The trend will be for conditions to continue
lowering with IFR likely by this evening for most sites with the
possible exception of ACY. This will be due to low cigs and
visbys in periods of rain/snow mixed (mainly rain south of PHL)
W to SW winds generally 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight...IFR with rain/snow ending around the late evening /
early overnight timeframe but low clouds and mist lingering
much of the night keeping it from getting better than MVFR.
Winds remaining W to SW 10 kts or so. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...Breaking to VFR early and remaining VFR thru the day.
Wind remaining gusty from the W to NW 10-15 kts with gust to 25
kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR with no significant weather
through the day Monday. Some showers and associated restrictions
will be possible for a time Monday night into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas remain elevated through Saturday. For this afternoon
through tonight, we will continue to see some marginal Gale
conditions at times for our southern waters off the coast of
southern NJ, DE, and the DE Bay. Farther north, the winds
should stay below Gale. For Saturday, winds should diminish
below Gale For the Delaware Bay but increase for our northern
ocean zones off the coast of Ocean and Monmouth Counties in NJ
where a Gale Warning is in effect beginning at 6 AM and
continuing through the day.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory criteria
conditions expected. West to northwest winds 20-25 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts and seas 3-6 feet. Gale force wind gusts may linger into
the first half of Saturday night, most likely south of Great Egg
Inlet.

Sunday night through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop behind a cold
front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Driest autumn (Sep-Nov) on record, and any 3-calendar month
period on record, plus current status:

                   9/1-11/21   Driest          Driest 3         Year/
Site              2024 precip  Autumn Year  Calendar months    months
Allentown (ABE)       2.60      3.81  1922      3.58        Oct-Dec 1928
A.C. Airport (ACY)    2.17      3.34  2001      2.35        Oct-Dec 1946
A.C. Marina (55N)     1.58      2.89  1941      2.52        Aug-Oct 1895
Georgetown (GED)      1.17      2.67  2001      2.20        Aug-Oct 2024
Mount Pocono (MPO)    4.25      4.21  1931      3.36        Oct-Dec 1928
Philadelphia (PHL)    1.98      2.37  1922      2.37        Sep-Nov 1922
Reading (RDG)         2.20      2.89  1922      2.89        Sep-Nov 1922
Trenton (TTN)         1.86      3.18  1922      2.66        Jun-Aug 1966
Wilmington (ILG)      1.61      3.17  1922      3.17        Sep-Nov 1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ062.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ001-007-008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450-451.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450-451.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ452>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL/Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/RCM
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons/RCM
CLIMATE...