037
FXUS61 KPHI 091956
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
256 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight before moving
offshore on Sunday. A warm front lifts north of the area by
Sunday afternoon, ahead of a cold front that crosses through on
Monday. A secondary cold front follows on Tuesday before high
pressure returns for Wednesday. Another cold front will cross
the region on Thursday with high pressure returning by next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift across the Mid Atlantic states
tonight, providing another nice night. However, this high will
shift offshore by daybreak Sunday morning ahead of an
approaching system. As the high shifts offshore, return flow
sets up across the area while a warm front lifts northward to
our west. Moisture will increase across the area will south to
southwest flow at the surface and aloft. Sunday will be another
pleasant day with high temperatures several degrees above
normal. The day will start out mostly clear except high cirrus,
before clouds lower through the afternoon. As we go into sunset
Sunday and overnight, moisture continues to overspread the
area, which will combine with several short wave/voticity
impulses, leading to increasing chances of periods of rain
through the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The short term period will be mostly tranquil aside for a few
cold fronts that make their way through the region. A shortwave
accompanied with the initial cold front is forecast to pass
through on Monday morning with a second shortwave and secondary
cold front passing through on Tuesday.

As the initial cold front crosses, rain showers will be
tapering off from west to east. A few showers may hang up along
the coast in the morning, but overall still looking like Monday
will be mostly dry for all areas, especially during the
afternoon. One more mild day is expected with highs mainly in
the mid 60s to low 70s with clearing skies. Mostly clear skies
will continue into Monday night, but winds should remain
elevated enough to prevent a totally efficient night for
radiational cooling. However, with some drier air working its
way back into the region, lows should fall into the 40s
areawide.

The next shortwave will pass north of the region on Tuesday
with a secondary cold front dropping south into the Mid-
Atlantic. Moisture aloft will be quite limited, so this front
will be dry as it passes, resulting in a dry Tuesday. Behind
this front will be a reinforcing shot of drier and cooler air,
so both dew points and temps will be much lower on Tuesday
compared to Monday. Highs will only be in the 50s to around 60
degrees for Tuesday despite mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in by Tuesday night and remain in place
through the day on Wednesday with seasonably cool weather for
this period.

By Wednesday night and into Thursday, a fairly strong upper
level trough will move towards and across the East Coast with a
weakening frontal system at the surface. As this feature
approaches, this should bring another round for some more rain
showers during the Wednesday night into Thursday night
timeframe. For now, the greatest likelihood for some
precipitation will be on Thursday with up to a 40% chance of
showers across the region. Guidance has considerably backed off
on the potential for coastal low development thereafter for the
Thursday night into Friday timeframe, so it now appears that
high pressure will simply build back in behind the frontal
passage late in the week. So, with this solution dry conditions
should return late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR conditions continue. Northwest winds 5-10
knots, with occasional gusts 15-20 knots. Gusts will continue to
diminish through the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Winds become light and
variable around sunset and continue through the overnight. High
confidence.

Sunday...VFR conditions continue, although clouds will increase
and lower through the afternoon. Winds increase out of the
southwest 5-10 knots after sunrise, then begin to gust 15-20
knots later in the morning into the afternoon. High confidence.

Sunday night...Conditions lower to MVFR then likely IFR as rain
spreads across the area as well. Winds increase out of the
southwest 10-15 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Sub-VFR possible with a chance
of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for the Atlantic Ocean
waters south of Cape May, NJ as seas have subsided below 5 feet
and seas and winds will remain below advisory levels through
tonight for all of the coastal waters. However, winds will
increase once again Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A Small
Craft Advisory is now in effect for the Atlantic Ocean waters
offshore of Delaware and New Jersey starting 1 pm Sunday and
continuing through 6 am Monday. The advisory starts at 6 pm on
Delaware Bay, and continues through 6 am Monday.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...Lingering SCA conditions possible
through Monday afternoon with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas around
5 feet. SCA conditions should subside by Monday night. Another round
of SCA conditions are possible early Tuesday morning into Tuesday
night due to wind gusts around 25 kt and seas around 5 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...No marine headlines are expected at
this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass remains across the region today with surface dew
points falling into the upper teens and low 20s. Northwest
winds of generally 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts of 15 to
20 mph will continue through this afternoon.

A Special Weather Statement is in effect for the risk of fire spread
today through 5 pm.

Even though portions of northern New Jersey and northeast
Pennsylvania will have RH values near 35 percent for few hours
around midday Sunday and winds will be gusty around 20 mph,
dewpoints will increase through the day and RH values will
increase in the afternoon. Therefore, no fire weather related
statements are expected for Sunday at this time.

Showers are forecast to result in a wetting rain (0.25-0.50
inches currently forecast) later Sunday, especially at night,
into Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record stretch (consecutive days) without measurable
precipitation:

  CURRENT
SITE                 RECORD  RECORD DATES  THRU 11/8
AC Airport (ACY)    34 days  Aug-Sep 1995   37 days
AC Marina (55N)     39 days  Aug-Sep 1995   38 days
Georgetown (GED)    34 days  Oct-Nov 2001   42 days
Philadelphia (PHL)  29 days  Oct-Nov 1874   41 days
Trenton (TTN)       38 days  Apr-May 1903   41 days
Wilmington (ILG)    34 days  Jan-Feb 1909   41 days

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NJZ008>010.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...Robertson
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/Robertson
MARINE...DeSilva/Robertson
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...