786
FXUS61 KPHI 250921
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
421 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the Middle Atlantic Monday.
After that, low pressure develops across Ohio and then moves
into southern Quebec on Tuesday. High pressure follows for the
middle of the week. Another low and front will affect the area
for Thanksgiving and into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tranquil conditions are ongoing this morning as some high clouds are
passing through the region. Current temperatures are mainly in the
30s/40s with light winds.

A rather pleasant late November day is in store today as high
pressure will be situated to our southeast allowing winds to have
more of a southerly component to them by this afternoon. This will
allow temperatures to rise a few degrees above normal. Highs will
mainly be in the mid to upper 50s, with upper 40s in the Poconos,
and around 60 degrees across the Delmarva. Mostly sunny skies are
expected for much of the day with only an increase in clouds late in
advance of our next weather system.

For tonight, low pressure over the Great Lakes will track into
southern Canada as a warm front extends across New York State and a
cold front trails across the Appalachians. Latest hi-res guidance
suggests that bulk of the precip associated with the cold front will
hold off until Tuesday morning. However, rain showers will likely
reach into our northern and western locales by day break on Tuesday.
With the abundance of cloud cover and southerly flow continuing, low
temperatures for tonight will mainly be in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will track into
southern Quebec and its associated fronts will move across the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic Tuesday. No major changes with the
system. Bulk of the rain looks to occur in the morning hours.
It`ll be mild for late November with highs Tue in the mid/upper
50s for the NW counties and low 60s for metro Philadelphia and
adjacent areas. Rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch
possible, favoring the northern half of the CWA.

A colder airmass moves in behind the front Tue night with
overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. High pressure
returns for Wed with a dry forecast for the busy travel day
before Thanksgiving with morning sunshine then clouds later
during the day. Temperatures will be near normal Wed with high
temps in the low/mid 50s for the Delaware Valley and adjacent
areas while mid/upper 40s will be found across the North/West
counties.

Our next storm system will begin deepening across the Ohio River
Valley Wednesday night with some rain arriving across the region after
midnight. Lows will only drop into the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A rainy end to the upcoming week, including the Thanksgiving holiday
as low pressure is expected to develop along the front across
the Ohio River Valley and then move east. There continue to be
model differences with regards to how fast the low moves and how
quickly it strengthens, but the `big-picture` an increase in
rains chances for Thu/Fri. Global guidance continues to trend
towards a warmer solution, so this update shows most of the
region seeing rain throughout the event. That said, the Pocono
Plateau could very well see some snow showers Thursday night
into Friday as the colder air filters in behind the departing
low.

Temperatures will start the period a near normal on Thursday
with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, but then drop below
climo Friday and into the weekend as the low departs and a cold
W/NW flow develops. Highs over weekend will struggle to reach
the low/mid 30s north and west with upper 30s/low 40s for other
areas. Breezy conditions too, so a real wintry feel as we begin
December.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR with some passing high clouds. West winds around 5
kt, becoming light and variable in some spots. High confidence.

Today...VFR with increasing high clouds in the afternoon. West winds
early, backing to southwest during the afternoon around 5-8 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...Mainly VFR expected, with MVFR ceilings possible at
KRDG/KABE after 06Z. Rain showers possible at all terminals.
South winds around 3-6 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tue...Sub-VFR at times with rain most sites. Gusty west winds
developing by afternoon.

Tue night/Wed...VFR expected.

Wed night thru Thu night...Lower CIGS/VSBYS at times with
occasional rain and fog possible across the area.

Friday...VFR expected. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. Northwest winds
around 10-20 kt this morning will become southwest winds around 5-10
kt this afternoon. Seas of 2 feet or less. For tonight, south winds
increase to 10-20 kt with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Tuesday...SCA conditions possible with rain. Seas 3-5 feet with
westerly winds gusting to 25 kts.

Wednesday...Sub-SCA. Fair.

Thursday and Friday...Winds and seas building with SCA
conditions possible. Rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Driest autumn (Sep-Nov) on record, and any 3-calendar month period
on record, plus current status as of 6 AM, Nov 23:

                   9/1-11/22   Driest          Driest 3         Year/
Site              2024 precip  Autumn Year  Calendar months    months
Allentown (ABE)       2.86      3.81  1922      3.58        Oct-Dec 1928
A.C. Airport (ACY)    2.23      3.34  2001      2.35        Oct-Dec 1946
A.C. Marina (55N)     1.61      2.89  1941      2.52        Aug-Oct 1895
Georgetown (GED)      1.41      2.67  2001      2.20        Aug-Oct 2024
Mount Pocono (MPO)    5.06      4.21  1931      3.36        Oct-Dec 1928
Philadelphia (PHL)    2.20      2.37  1922      2.37        Sep-Nov 1922
Reading (RDG)         2.34      2.89  1922      2.89        Sep-Nov 1922
Trenton (TTN)         2.12      3.18  1922      2.66        Jun-Aug 1966
Wilmington (ILG)      1.85      3.17  1922      3.17        Sep-Nov 1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL/OHara
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...MJL/OHara
LONG TERM...MJL/OHara
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/MJL
CLIMATE...