568
FXUS61 KPHI 061008
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
608 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in this evening as a
cold front sweeps through. A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe
weather is in place from the I-95 corridor and points north and
west with damaging winds as the primary threat.

2. Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week
with warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in
this evening as a cold front sweeps through. A Slight Risk (2/5)
for severe weather is in place from the I-95 corridor and
points north and west with damaging winds as the primary threat.

A cold front will move across Pennsylvania and New York through
today. The front will encounter a warm and unstable airmass,
with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop well off to
our west later today. Storms likely will congeal and form a
broken line segment or several broken line segments as they move
toward our area. The cluster of storms will move into our area
later this evening, likely no earlier than 5 to 6 PM over the
Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos. This cluster of storms
likely will push through the I-95 corridor between 8 to 11 PM
and then offshore by early tomorrow morning.

With steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 degrees C/km,
strong downdrafts/gusty winds are likely to accompany some of
the thunderstorms. A secondary threat with these storms also is
the potential for 1" hail in stronger storms. No real changes to
the Severe Weather Outlook, with a Slight Risk (2/5) in place
for the I-95 corridor and points north and west.

The main failure mode with these storms could be a lack of
moisture as the airmass has been quite dry and we don`t really
have strong moisture advection out ahead of the front. The 00z
NAMNest kind of hints at this solution with limited coverage in
convection. The timing also isn`t favorable for widespread
severe weather, especially south and east of the I-95 corridor.
Those are two factors to keep in mind after the afternoon and
evening goes on.

No flooding concerns as QPF amounts generally will be around a
tenth to three tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts
possible in any thunderstorms. Convection should be fast moving
as well.

As the initial front goes through, things should dry out pretty
quickly. Cannot rule out some patchy fog though in areas that
see some rainfall. The drier airmass will hold off until the
secondary front passes later on Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of
next week with warming temperatures.

The region will remain embedded within a belt of somewhat enhanced
mid-level flow through early next week as sharp trough located over
New England begins to close off and track slowly eastward away from
the region. Thereafter, mid-level ridging will likely begin to take
shape across the region through late week. At the surface, a cold
front will shift southeastward through the region late Sunday into
Monday. In its wake, high pressure will shift into the area, and
generally remain in place, though it may begin to break down some by
late week.

The cold front late Sunday into Monday looks to usher in slightly
cooler temperatures, with high temperatures on Monday generally in
the upper 70s to low 80s, and temperatures overnight Monday night
falling into the low to mid 50s. The cool down does look to be
fairly short lived with the high pressure taking shape across the
area afterwards. Steady warming is expected Tuesday and beyond, with
widespread low 90s by Wednesday and perhaps even mid or upper 90s by
late week.

In terms of precipitation chances, dry conditions are expected
through Tuesday night. Thereafter, as the high pressure breaks down
slightly, isolated to scattered, primarily diurnally driven
convection will be possible mid-late week. For now, PoPs are
generally in the 20-40% range each day Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Primarily VFR. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop off to the west later today and push into our area
this evening. Have maintained VCTS at KRDG/KABE from 22z-02z but
kept out thunder for the I-95 corridor TAFs. Any thunderstorms,
if they make it to the I-95 corridor, would likely be after
00z. It is even more unlikely that any thunderstorms make it to
KACY/KMIV, but have added a VCSH category after 03z.
Restrictions are likely if a thunderstorm moves over the
terminal as well as a brief period of gusty winds. Have around a
30-40% chance of thunderstorms moving over KABE/KRDG between
22z-02z, a 20-30% over KPHL/KILG/KTTN/KPNE between 00z-03z, and
around a 15-20% chance over KACY/KMIV. Given the lower
probabilities outside of the Lehigh Valley, will keep thunder
out of the TAFs at the I-95 and South Jersey terminals but will
leave open the chance to add in subsequent updates.

Winds will be out of the southwest for today, increasing to
around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt by midday.

Moderate confidence in the overall forecast.

Tonight...Primarily VFR, but cannot rule out patchy fog (15-20%
chance) over areas that receive rainfall from showers and
thunderstorms this evening. Winds generally out of the west
around 5 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions can`t
be ruled out in isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through this morning with
south/southwest winds around 10-20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.

For this afternoon and tonight, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for coastal waters north of Great Egg Inlet beginning at
2 PM as winds increase to around 15 to 25 kt out of the
southwest and seas get near 5 feet.

Lower seas and winds are expected over Delaware Bay and south of
Great Egg Inlet, where sub-SCA conditions are expected for this
afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines currently anticipated
with winds under 25 kt and seas less than 5 feet.


Rip Currents...

For today, southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20
mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet with a light easterly
swell around 8 seconds. Have maintained a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches.

On Sunday, west-northwest winds of 5-15 mph. Breaking waves
will be 2-3 feet. There may be an increased south-southeasterly
swell around 7-8 seconds. Given the increased swell, there is a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore. There is a LOW
risk at Delaware beaches where it currently appears the
increased swell will not have as much influence.

Ocean water temperatures are generally near 60 degrees for much
of the Jersey Shore and the low 60s for Delaware beaches. These
chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and
physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the
water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich
MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich