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FXUS61 KPHI 020624
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
224 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually weaken as is shifts to our east
through Wednesday. A cold front cross our area during Friday,
followed by another cold front later Saturday. High pressure
then builds in during Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain centered to the northeast of
our region. This will keep an onshore low level flow regime. In
the mid and upper levels, a remnant cutoff low will continue to
weaken. Some guidance shows showers developing in response to
the meandering and weakening mid level low. At this point, it
appears as if our region is more likely to see mid level clouds
rather than any measurable precipitation. None the less, some
sprinkles may be possible as we go through the day.

Temperature wise, the onshore flow should keep the region with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For this period, the focus is on a closed which will cross into
and then meander over the province of Ontario into the long term
period. The first of the cold fronts associated with this low is
expected to pass through our region Thursday night.

Southerly flow is forecast to increase some ahead of this
front, and this will result in some more moisture advecting
northward across our area. As a result, there will be modest
warm air and moisture advection Wednesday into Thursday ahead of
the cold front.

It seems like most guidance has finally started to be consistent
on the timing of the front, Overnight Thursday night. As such,
no significant changes with the timing of the mention of showers
and thunderstorms. The front will be going through frontolysis
as it crosses our region. That, combined with the fact that the
best synoptic scale lift will be well north of our region, means
that while there is at least a 20% chance everywhere in our
region, this by no means looks like a washout. The highest
chances for both measurable rain and at least one quarter inch
of rain are for the Poconos and NW NJ.

There is another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon. This appears to be mostly in response to a trough in
between the two cold fronts. That being said, this doesn`t
appear to be a widespread rain event for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main focus in the long term is on the second (and likely
stronger) cold front on Saturday. After that, it appears another
broad area of surface high pressure begins to build over the
region.

The secondary cold front arrives Saturday. The parent low once
again is well north of our area, therefore it will come down to
how much forcing will be presence for shower/thunder
development. There is some uncertainty in how quickly on
Saturday this front will arrive. The later it arrives, the more
likely temperatures will be above normal during the day time,
and any rain will be more centered on Saturday night. For now,
have stayed close to the blend of guidance.

For Sunday and Monday...A trailing mid and upper level short
wave trough may result in some lingering showers and storms.
However, for the most part, the dominant feature will be the
broad surface high building in over the region bringing another
relatively dry and cool period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Today...Prevailing VFR conditions, though brief periods
of MVFR ceilings are possible, especially at KACY through 12Z.
Winds may be light and variable to start the day, but should
settle out of the northeast after sunrise. After 18Z, expect
winds to gradually shift to more southeasterly. Wind speeds
should stay 10 KT or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR conditions. Winds are east to southeast
during the evening, then light and variable most places
overnight. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Prevailing VFR. A slight chance (20%) for lower
ceilings Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday...MVFR visibility or ceiling restrictions
will be possible with showers and thunderstorms primarily in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Saturday...Prevailing VFR. There is a 20 to 40% chance for
showers and thunderstorms resulting in temporary visibility and
ceiling restrictions in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory
Criteria.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA
criteria.

Thursday and Friday...Southerly winds increase ahead of a cold front
and wind gusts could approach 25 knots for a time.

Saturday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents...

Tuesday...Northeasterly wind 10 mph will become east-
northeasterly in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights 2 to 3
feet, with a 7-9 second period. Given the forecast trend of wind
being more onshore, have opted for a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

Wednesday...Northeasterly wind 10 mph will become east-
southeasterly in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights 2 to 3
feet, with a 7-9 second period. Given the forecast trend of wind
being more onshore, have opted for a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/Johnson
NEAR TERM...Johnson/Robertson
SHORT TERM...Gorse/Johnson
LONG TERM...Gorse/Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
MARINE...Johnson