805
FXUS61 KPHI 060953
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
553 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of
the weekend. The exception will be near the coast of New Jersey into
southern Delaware where some showers are possible today.

2. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with this afternoon`s high
tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and
Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect
from 3 PM to 9 PM.

3. A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential
for another round of showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for
the rest of the weekend. The exception will be near the coast of New
Jersey into southern Delaware where some showers are possible
today.

A drier and cooler airmass has arrived across the northern Middle
Atlantic region as high pressure to the northwest begins influencing
our weather to a greater degree. Low pressure aloft across the the
Northern Atlantic continues to bring Northwest flow aloft over our
area. A couple embedded short waves in this flow will pass across
New England and our coastal waters into the day today. This may
result in some scattered showers near the New Jersey coast
this morning with this activity then drifting south into
southern Delaware by the afternoon. Pops are generally in the
20% to 35% range, so no significant impacts are expected.
Otherwise expect a mix of sun and clouds for today with a
northeast breeze around 5 to 10 mph. Highs will be in the 70s
along the coast and over our northern zones with some low 80s
over much of Delmarva through the Greater Philadelphia region.
Similar conditions will follow for Labor Day with sunshine and
highs close to if not a bit warmer than Sunday`s highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with this
afternoon`s high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore,
Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood
Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM.

Flow will continue to turn more onshore today. This will result in
water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, leading to minor tidal
flooding across portions of our area this afternoon.
The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Atlantic City on
south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within
Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland County in NJ and Kent and Sussex
County in Delaware from 3 PM this afternoon until 9 PM this evening

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake
Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding
at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow
turns more offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing
the potential for another round of showers and storms.

Mid-level ridging will be in place across central and northeastern
portions of the US through Tuesday, with high pressure also in
control at the surface. The result will be tranquil conditions.
Starting on Wednesday, ridging aloft is expected to begin to break
down as an upper-low tracks eastward from portions of Ontario into
portions of Quebec. Current guidance has height falls beginning
across the area on Wednesday, with a strong shortwave pivoting
through the region on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
shift offshore Wednesday, with a cold front moving through sometime
on Thursday.

Wednesday into Thursday, as the high shifts offshore, warm and moist
southerly flow will resume across the area, with highs warming into
the mid-upper 80s for many, and dewpoints rising into the 60s.

It is not entirely out of the question that as the ridge begins to
break down some shower and storm chances could ultimately evolve
across portions of the area Wednesday night. We currently feature
PoPs generally in the 20-30% range for this time period mainly for
northwestern portions of the area. Slightly better shower and storm
chances are likely to exist across the area on Thursday when the
actual cold front moves through the region. At this point, PoPs
thursday are also generally in the 20-30% range, but would not be
surprised if they trend up some in the coming days. Currently, the
threat for severe storms or flash flooding concerns appears low.

In the wake of the cold front, dry conditions look to return for
Friday and Saturday, along with cooler temperatures. High
temperatures look to be in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid
50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Primarily VFR. SCT clouds around 4 kft AGL could become
BKN at times. Northeast winds 5-10 kts, trending towards
easterly late in the day. A few light showers can`t be ruled
out, primarily at MIV and ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight..VFR with winds light and variable but generally
favoring and east to northeast direction. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory
conditions through today and tonight though some scattered
showers can be expected over the waters.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected. Seas
will generally range around 2-4 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions probable due to
wind gusts around 25-30 kt with seas around 4-6 feet. Conditions
will peak late Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually
diminishing on Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, while winds will be onshore with a northeast wind,
breaking waves should remain low (around 2 feet or less) and
winds 10 to 15 MPH or lower. An 8 second wave period will also
limit the rip current risk. As a result, elected for a LOW Risk
at all beaches.

For Labor Day, winds will generally be out of the east, but
rather light - around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves remain
around 2 feet or lower with an 8 second period. This will
result in another LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NJZ021>025.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara
AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Hoeflich/OHara