078
FXUS61 KPHI 030544
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1244 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore overnight. A weak coastal low
will slide by to the south and east on Monday, followed by a
weak cold front on Monday night. High pressure returns on
Tuesday into Wednesday, before another cold front crosses
through the region Wednesday night. High pressure briefly builds
in for Thursday and Friday before a stronger low pressure
system impacts the region for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface high pressure over the Northeast slides offshore
tonight. Meanwhile, closed H5 low over the Tennessee Valley and
northern portions of the Gulf Coast states tracks east and
slides off the Southeast coast tonight through Monday. As it
does, surface low pressure develops and intensifies off the
Southeast coast during this time and lifts north towards the
Mid-Atlantic coast during the day Monday. This low should not
track too close to the coast, as it will drift northeast away
from the coast as another H5 trough passes north of the region.

In terms of sensible weather, tranquil conditions through
tonight. High clouds will increase and thicken during the
overnight hours and winds will become mostly calm. Light warm
air advection will result in warmer temperatures tonight
compared to Saturday night as lows will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s for most of southeast Pennsylvania and most of New
Jersey, and in the mid 40s or so along the urban corridor from
around Philadelphia to Wilmington and over Delmarva. Lows will
be in the upper 40s along the coasts due to the proximity to the
relatively warmer ocean waters.

Between offshore low pressure tracking near the coast and the
H5 trough passing north of the area, skies will be cloudy. Any
rain should mostly be confined to Delaware Beaches and the
Jersey Shore, but low chance PoPs will extend back towards the
Garden State Parkway and slight chance PoPs back towards the
I-95 corridor. QPF will be light, generally as much as 1/10" or
so along the coasts and trace amounts to maybe a couple of
hundredths of an inch inland.

Highs on Monday will generally be in the upper 50s to around
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Overall, mostly sensible weather is expected for the Monday
night through Wednesday night period. A trough axis departs the
region Monday night with quasi-zonal flow filling in its place
through Wednesday. Another shortwave trough approaches by
Wednesday night. At the surface, a weak surface front passes
through early Monday evening with broad high pressure building
in from the south on Tuesday. This high then slides offshore
Tuesday night. A weak low will track across northern New York on
Wednesday with a trailing cold front crossing through the Mid-
Atlantic region at night.

All in all, mostly clear and sunny skies are expected through
Tuesday night. Monday night lows will be in the upper 30s to mid
40s with highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday
night will feature slightly colder temps, with lighter winds
causing temps to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s. This could
pose a threat for frost development on agriculture where the
growing season remains active. Otherwise, a gradual increase in
cloud cover is expected on Wednesday, albeit, highs will be ~5
degrees warmer with southerly return flow setting up ahead of a
cold front that will cross through Wednesday night. The daytime
period will remain dry with a 20-40% chance of showers at night
(mainly north of Philadelphia).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A continuation of sensible and seasonable weather is expected
through Thursday night with broad but expansive high pressure
settling over the Great Lakes on Thursday before shifting off
the East Coast on Friday. Mainly clear skies with seasonable
temperatures are expected...with potential frost/freeze concerns
on Thursday night where the growing season remains active.

By Friday, the pattern will become more active and progressive
as a series of quick-moving systems impact the region for the
weekend. High pressure shifts off the coast on Friday as an area
of low pressure tracks through southeast Canada early Saturday.
Beyond Friday night, guidance diverges significantly as there
are notable timing differences amongst features. For this
reason, have stuck close to NBM guidance which carries a 40-60%
chance of showers across the entire region Friday night into
Saturday. Beyond this point, the weather pattern looks to be
unsettled, resulting in a chance of showers to be mentioned for
Sunday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Mainly calm winds. Ceilings will begin to lower
through 12Z, with some light rain potentially impacting MIV/ACY
by 12Z. High confidence.

Monday...Overall VFR. MVFR conditions anticipated at KACY and
KMIV in light rain and stratus in the afternoon. A few brief
showers and brief MVFR ceilings possible for the I-95 terminals
between roughly 15-19Z. Light and variable winds becoming S to
SW around 5-10 kts. A cold front will cross the region around
00Z, with winds abruptly shifting WNW and increasing to 10-15
kts with gusts near 20-25 kts possible. Moderate confidence in
overall prevailing conditions, but low confidence on timing.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday night...VFR. Wind gusts up to 20
kt possible during the day. A chance of showers for Wednesday
night.

Thursday through Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions overnight and Monday. SE
winds generally 10 to 15 kt through most of Monday, turning W-NW
with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas generally around 2 feet
through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for both the Atlantic Coastal Waters and Delaware Bay
for wind gusts of 25-30 kt and seas up to 5 feet.

Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely with wind
gusts up to 30 kt and seas building up to 6 feet.

Thursday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible late
Friday, but largely no marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...MJL/MPS
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL/MPS/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/Staarmann