379
FXUS61 KPHI 221052
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
652 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin will continue to track out to sea through Friday.
Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build
east, and will eventually be overhead on Friday before departing
this weekend. A cold front passes through the region Sunday night
through Monday morning, followed by another weak cold front on
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle to the end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
More in the way of summer-like weather returns to the area today as
Erin continues to accelerate away into the open Atlantic. High
pressure will continue to build over the Mid-Atlantic today before
settling to the south of Long Island tonight. This shall lead to
fair and sensible weather prevailing through tonight.

Wall to wall sunshine is expected today with much lighter winds only
around 5-10 mph as high pressure settles overhead. High temps will
top out in the low to mid 80s for most, with upper 70s in the
Poconos and along the coast.

Clear skies continue tonight as high pressure shifts offshore. Winds
will gradually settle out of the south as a result. Low temps will
fall into the mid to upper 50s for most locales, with 60s in
immediate urban centers and along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be offshore on Saturday, and return flow sets up
behind the departing high. Sunny and warmer thanks to southerly flow
with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s. A cold front
approaches from the west starting Saturday night. A more humid
airmass will creep in overnight, with dew points rising back into
the mid 60s. An isolated shower or even a thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out early Sunday morning across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley
as the front continues to approach the region.

With the cold front continuing to creep eastward, southerly flow
will continue to pull a more humid airmass northward into the
region, allowing dew points to rise into the upper 60s. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon ahead of that cold
front. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The slow-moving frontal
boundary will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday night. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday
before the cold front finally pushes through and out to sea by
Monday night when the cooler, drier air finally arrives. Highs on
Monday will remain in the 80s, but nighttime lows will fall into the
mid 50s to low 60s with the humidity back into the comfortable
range. A weak secondary front passes through the region Tuesday.
Only a few light showers will be possible in the Poconos. Cool and
dry for the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the
north and west with highs in the 70s Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday, some 10 degrees or so below normal for this time of
year!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Lingering areas of patchy mist through 13Z, otherwise VFR
& SKC. North-northeast winds around 5-10 kt. Winds may become
southeasterly at KMIV/KACY due to sea breeze in afternoon. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR & SKC. Southerly winds around 5 kt or less,
becoming light and variable at times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Generally VFR, but brief sub-VFR conditions
possible in any SHRA/TSRA from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic coastal
waters through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on
the lower Delaware Bay until 11 AM this morning.

North-northeast winds around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt will
continue this morning before diminishing to around 10-15 kt this
afternoon. Winds will settle out of the south around 5-10 kt
tonight. Large seas of 8-12 feet this morning will abate to 6-10
feet this afternoon and lower to 4-8 feet tonight. Fair weather
expected outside of SCA conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday...Seas remain elevated from departing Hurricane Erin.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions. Visibility
restrictions and locally higher winds and seas in showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions.

Rip Currents...

YOU ARE RISKING YOUR LIFE IF YOU GO IN THE WATER!

For Friday, conditions begin to improve but still expecting
high waves of 6 to 8 feet and a long period 13 to 16 second
swell with Hurricane Erin pulling away. A HIGH risk for
development of life-threatening rip currents will continue.

For Saturday, conditions continue to improve but still
expecting high waves of 3 to 5 feet and a long period 11
second swell with Hurricane Erin pulling away. A HIGH risk for
development of life-threatening rip currents will remain through
the end of the week.

A HIGH risk of rip currents possible Sunday as well.

A High Surf Advisory is also in effect through Friday for the
New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coasts. Waves in the surf zone
will reach and exceed 8 feet.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding concerns persist despite Hurricane Erin
pushing further out to sea today. While northeast winds are
expected to be weaker today, the persistent northeast flow and
strong swells from Erin will continue the threat for tidal
flooding and push of water onshore, especially during this
evening`s high tide. Widespread minor coastal flooding is
expected during this morning`s high tide, mainly impacting
coastal New Jersey and coastal Delaware. Widesperad Minor to
Moderate coastal flooding is expected for this evening`s high
tide across all coastlines, including along the Delaware Bay and
tidal Delaware River. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect
from Manasquan Inlet, NJ through Fenwick Island, DE, including
the Delaware Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories are now in effect
from Perth Amboy, NJ to Manasquan Inlet, NJ and along the tidal
Delaware River. Coastal Flood Advisories are now up for the
Eastern Shores of Maryland thanks to southeast flow beginning
tonight.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ012>014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for DEZ004.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ015-019-
     020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL/MPS
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI