126
FXUS61 KPHI 180003
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
803 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the region this evening,
with high pressure temporarily building in its wake. A series of
disturbances will bring unsettled weather this weekend, until a
stronger cold front clears the area Sunday. High pressure will
settle in to the area for the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM...As of early this evening, a cold front is just starting to
encroach on our area is it starts to move into our eastern PA zones
into NW NJ. This will finally bring us some relief to the heat and
humidity. Along and ahead of the front it is still quite unstable
with ML CAPEs around 1500-2500 j/kg. However there is a lack of deep
layer forcing and the mid levels are quite dry. So for these reasons
convection has really struggled to materialize. There have been a
few weak cells over MD near the front and still can`t completely
rule out a few storms this evening but the threat for anything more
than isolated storms is diminishing at this time.

The cold front will swing through and clear the area by later
tonight with skies clearing out some and humid air being swept out
of the region. It starts to feel more comfortable tonight as dew
points fall quickly in the wake of the front. Lows generally range
from the upper 60s to low to mid 70s. Areas in the Poconos could
even get down into the 50s.

While the cold front clears our area overnight, it will stall out
just to our south and east. This could result in more clouds and a
few showers/isolated thunderstorms across the Delmarva peninsula and
far South Jersey for Friday, areas that are in closer proximity to
the stalled boundary. Not expecting any severe or hydro threats
however. Elsewhere, it will be a rather quiet day and much more
comfortable than today as dew points will be in the low to mid 60s
for most spots, and even potentially into the 50s north of I-78.
Highs are more seasonable, or even a few degrees below normal for
tomorrow-in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-low initially over portions of the Hudson Bay and
northern Quebec will shift slowly southeastward through the
period. With ridging centered over the southeastern US, our
region will initially have weak zonal flow aloft and neutral
heights. Friday night, an area of low pressure passing to the
south could continue to bring lingering chances for showers
across portions of the Delmarva, but high pressure over New
England should keep most of the area dry. Friday night lows
should generally be in the mid-upper 60s, with a few low 70s
possible, outside of the Poconos where temperatures could fall
into the upper 50s.

A subtle shortwave embedded in the zonal flow regime should
pass through the area on Saturday. As the surface high shifts
east off of the coast, shower and storm chances will increase
across our entire area. As of right now, the greatest chance
appears to be from Saturday afternoon into much of Saturday
night. Instability looks to be quite limited with this system,
so severe weather is not anticipated at this time. However,
there will be enough moisture to work with to support at least
some potential for excessive rainfall. As such, the Weather
Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) across
most of our area for flash flooding.

As the upper-low shifts southeast through the weekend, it
should become more of an open trough with the axis pivoting
through northern New England Sunday night. A surface cold front
will approach the area from the northwest by Sunday evening.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible across much of the
area during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the front.
Models are hinting at some instability and wind shear that
could lead to some severe potential, so this will need to be
monitored in the coming days.

The cold front appears likely to bring in a much more pleasant
airmass. While it may not drop temperatures too much, it should
help with the high moisture content which has contributed to the
oppressive nature of the recent heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With high pressure over the area and the recent frontal passage
having reduced both temperatures and dewpoints across the area,
Monday and Tuesday should both be quite pleasant. Partly to
mostly clear skies and fairly light winds are expected.
Afternoon highs look to be in the low-mid 80s both days, with
overnight lows generally in the low 60s.

While no major storm systems are anticipated in the extended
period, it may become slightly more unsettled Wednesday into
Thursday, with at least low chances for afternoon storms
returning. In addition, we will likely see temperatures start to
warm again, with most locations seeing highs approaching 90
again by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with decreasing clouds. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots
shifting to northwest from north to south through the 00-06z time
frame as a cold front moves through. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR. No significant weather expected.

Saturday through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions will be possible
at times in scattered showers and storms.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines in place through Friday. Winds out of the
southwest through this evening before becoming northwesterly
overnight. Wind speeds of around 10-20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A
few thunderstorms possible, especially north of Little Egg
Inlet, this evening.

Outlook...

No marine headlines anticipated. Winds are expected to remain
below 25 kt with seas remaining below 5 ft. Scattered showers
and storms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, northwest winds around 5-10 mph become more out of
the southeast by late afternoon with breaking waves around 1-2
feet and a southerly 2 foot swell around 6-7 seconds. As a
result, have maintained a LOW risk for rip currents at all
beaches.

For Saturday, south to southeast winds around 5-10 mph with
breaking waves of 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. As a
result, a LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
MARINE...Cooper/Guzzo/Hoeflich