537
FXUS61 KPHI 061800
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Key Message 3 and Outlook periods of Aviation and Marine
sections with only minor changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected through Labor
Day. The exception will be near coastal New Jersey and Delaware
where some showers are possible today.

2. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with this afternoon`s high
tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and
Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect
from 3 PM to 9 PM.

3. A cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing the potential
for another round of showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected through
Labor Day. The exception will be near coastal New Jersey and
Delaware where some showers are possible today.

A drier and cooler airmass has arrived across the northern Middle
Atlantic region as high pressure to the northwest begins influencing
our weather to a greater degree. Low pressure aloft across the
North Atlantic continues to bring northwest flow aloft over our
area. A couple embedded shortwaves in this flow will pass
across New England today. This will result in some isolated to
scattered showers near the New Jersey and Delaware coasts
through the afternoon. Pops are generally in the 15-30% range,
so no significant impacts are expected. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies are expected with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Similar
temperatures will follow for Labor Day with more sun than
clouds and dry weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with this
afternoon`s high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore,
Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood
Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM.

Flow will continue to turn more onshore today. This will result in
water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, leading to minor tidal
flooding across portions of our area this afternoon.
The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Atlantic City on
south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within
Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland County in NJ and Kent and Sussex
County in Delaware from 3 PM this afternoon until 9 PM this evening

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake
Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding
at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow
turns more offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will cross the area Thursday
bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

Mid-level ridging will be in place across central and northeastern
portions of the US through Tuesday, with high pressure also in
control at the surface. The result will be tranquil conditions.
Starting on Wednesday, ridging aloft is expected to begin to break
down as an upper-low tracks eastward from portions of Ontario into
portions of Quebec. Current guidance has height falls beginning
across the area on Wednesday, with a strong shortwave pivoting
through the region on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
shift offshore Wednesday, with a cold front moving through sometime
on Thursday.

Wednesday into Thursday, as the high moves offshore, a warm and
moist southerly flow develops across the area, with highs warming
into the mid-upper 80s for many, and dewpoints rising into the
mid/upper 60s or low 70s for Delmarva and south NJ.

It is not entirely out of the question that as the ridge begins to
break down some shower and storm chances could ultimately evolve
across portions of the area Wednesday night. We currently feature
PoPs generally in the 20-40% range for this time period across the
Southern Poconos and northern NJ. Slightly better shower and storm
chances are likely to exist across the area on Thursday when the
actual cold front moves through the region. At this point, PoPs Thursday
are also generally in the 30-50% range, but would not be surprised
if they trend up some in the coming days. Currently, the threat
for severe storms or flash flooding concerns appears low.

Following the system, a period of fair weather and seasonable
temperatures will be across the area Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. SCT/BKN clouds around 4000 ft. North-
northeast winds around 5-10 kt, becoming easterly late in the
day at a few terminals. A few showers possible near KACY/KMIV.
Moderate-high confidence.

Tonight...VFR with a few clouds. Winds light and variable,
favoring a north-northeast direction around 3 kt or less. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR with a few clouds. North-northeast winds in the
morning, will settle out of the northwest around 5-10 kt in the
afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night thru Wednesday... VFR expected.

Wednesday night thru Thursday night... Lower CIGS/VSBYs possible
  with scattered showers or  a few tstms.

Friday... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East-northeast
winds around 8-13 kt today will become north-northeast around
5-10 kt tonight. Northeast winds will increase briefly on Monday
morning around 10-15 kt before settling out of the southeast
around 5-10 kt for Monday afternoon. Seas of 2-3 feet. Aside for
a few isolated showers today, fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Monday night thru Wednesday... Winds and seas remain below SCA levels.
Winds do increase thru the day Wednesday however. Fair thru the period.

Wednesday night thru Thursday night... Low-end SCA probable with winds
gusting 25 to 30 kts and seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.


Rip Currents...

Rest of today, while winds will be onshore with a northeast wind,
breaking waves should remain low (around 2 feet or less) and winds
10 to 15 MPH or lower. An 8 second wave period will also limit the
rip current risk. As a result, elected for a LOW Risk at all beaches.


For Labor Day, winds will generally be out of the east, but rather
light - around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves remain around 2 feet
or lower with an 8 second period. This will result in another LOW
risk for rip currents at all beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ021>025.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/OHara
AVIATION...DeSilva/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/OHara