336
FXUS61 KPHI 250226
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
926 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the Middle Atlantic region
tonight and much of Monday. After that, low pressure develops
across Ohio and then moves toward the Saint lawrence Valley by
later Tuesday. High pressure follows for the middle of the week.
Another low and front will affect the area for Thanksgiving and
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast remains mostly on track, so no significant changes will
be made to the database with this update.

The upper level low off to the northeast slowly continues to
push away, though the region remains under cyclonic flow.
Winds continue to diminish through this evening, and with the
high moving overhead, the gradient will weaken.

For tonight, skies will be slow to clear out. While cumulus
will dissipate, some upper level clouds will continue to move
through as an upper level jet streak moves overhead.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s with upper 30s at
the coast and within Philadelphia.

High pressure settles in just to the north, which will result
in a nice Monday. It will start mainly sunny but clouds increase
as the day goes on ahead of an approaching system. Seasonable
temperatures are expected, with a spread of 50s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Only one system of note for the short term. A low pressure system
and its associated fronts will move across the area Tuesday. No
major changes with the system. The timing looks slightly faster but
the intensity remains about the same. The slowly deepening low moves
from MI Tue morning towards the St. Lawrence Valley by early
evening. Clouds will increase Mon night and rains are possible by
morning but more likely during the day Tue. It`ll be mild for late
November with highs Tue in the mid/upper 50s for the NW counties and
low 60s for metro Philadelphia and adjacent areas. Rainfall amounts
up to a quarter of an inch possible, favoring the northern half of
the CWA.

The low loses its influence on the weather Tue night and high
pressure returns for Wed. We`ll carry a dry forecast for the day
before Thanksgiving and indicate morning sunshine then clouds later
during the day. Temperatures will be near normal Wed with the cooler
air flowing in behind the departing storm from Tue. Maximum temps
will favor the low/mid 50s for the Delaware Valley and adjacent
areas while mid/upper 40s will be found across the North/West
counties. Lows Wed morning will be in the 30s regionwide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A rainy end to the upcoming week, including the Thanksgiving holiday
as low pressure is expected to develop along the front across the
lower Ohio Valley and then move east. There continue to be model
differences with regards to how fast the low moves and if a second
stronger low follows the initial low, but `big-picture` an increase
in clouds is expected Wed followed by rains for Thu/Fri. We`ll make
some minor adjustments to the NBM pops to align with neighboring
offices. The higher pops will be found across the southern areas
with chance pops late Wed night then likely pops for Thu/Thu evening
before lowering. Friday will feature chance pops for S/E areas
(rain) but also for the far N/W areas (snow) as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will start the period a  near normal (Thu), but then a
trend to below normal begins as the low departs and a cold W/NW flow
develops. Highs next weekend will struggle to reach the low/mid 30s
N/W and upper 30s/low 40s for other areas. Breezy conditions too, so
a real wintry feel as we begin December.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with clearing skies but some passing high clouds
likely. West winds around 5-10 kt, becoming light and variable
overnight at some spots. High confidence.

Monday...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Mon night... VFR with increasing clouds early. Lower conditions with
rain and restrictions possible by morning for KRDG/KABE.

Tue... sub-VFR at times with rain most sites. Gusty west winds developing
by afternoon.

Tue night/Wed... VFR expected.

Wed night thru Thu night... lower CIGS/VSBYS at times with occasional
rain and fog possible across the area.

Friday... VFR expected. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish, so will go ahead and cancel the
Small Craft Advisory that was in effect for NJ ocean waters
until 10 pm.

For the rest of tonight and Monday, sub-SCA conditions
expected. Winds out of the west/northwest around 10-20 kt and
seas around 2 feet.

Outlook...

Mon night...sub-SCA early then building winds/seas with SCA possible
by dawn across the srn NJ/DE waters. Fair then light rain possible
by dawn.

Tue/Tue night... SCA probable. Rain.

Wed... sub-SCA. Fair.

Wed night/Thu... WInds and seas building Wed night with SCA expected
Thu. Rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Driest autumn (Sep-Nov) on record, and any 3-calendar month period
on record, plus current status as of 6 AM, Nov 23:

                   9/1-11/22   Driest          Driest 3         Year/
Site              2024 precip  Autumn Year  Calendar months    months
Allentown (ABE)       2.86      3.81  1922      3.58        Oct-Dec 1928
A.C. Airport (ACY)    2.23      3.34  2001      2.35        Oct-Dec 1946
A.C. Marina (55N)     1.61      2.89  1941      2.52        Aug-Oct 1895
Georgetown (GED)      1.41      2.67  2001      2.20        Aug-Oct 2024
Mount Pocono (MPO)    5.06      4.21  1931      3.36        Oct-Dec 1928
Philadelphia (PHL)    2.20      2.37  1922      2.37        Sep-Nov 1922
Reading (RDG)         2.34      2.89  1922      2.89        Sep-Nov 1922
Trenton (TTN)         2.12      3.18  1922      2.66        Jun-Aug 1966
Wilmington (ILG)      1.85      3.17  1922      3.17        Sep-Nov 1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/MPS
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS/OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS/OHara
CLIMATE...