126
FXUS61 KPHI 070012
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
812 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The strong cold front has shifted to south NJ and Delmarva as of
Saturday evening. This front will become nearly stationary over
New Jersey and Delmarva through Sunday, while a weak low pressure
tracks along the front Sunday afternoon. The front departs Sunday
night as high pressure builds in from the west for the start of
the new week. Low pressure may track along the coast on Wednesday.
A cold front will then cross the region Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Showers and scattered thunder will linger much of the night
as the slow moving front to the south (across Delmarva and
south NJ) continues to provide some lift to the previously warm
and humid airmass still south of the region. The loss of
surface heating and CAPE has resulted in a diminished severe
threat. We will monitor the potential for some heavy rains
overnight across Delmarva and south NJ.

With the slow moving nature of the front and potential for the
low redevelopment, some clouds likely linger much of Sunday, and
showers may do so as well especially in the morning, but the
system should be truly clearing the region by late in the day.
With the cooler air mass, limited sun and spotty showers, highs
will be considerably cooler, mostly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave axis will pivot through our area Sunday night.
Behind this feature, flow aloft will weaken considerably, with
subtle height rises taking place through Monday night under weak
southwesterly mid- and upper- level flow. At the surface, the
cold front will continue to shift east away from the area as
high pressure originally centered over portions of the Midwest
and Great Lakes is ushered in.

Dry conditions are expected Sunday night. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday should feature partly sunny skies
and highs in the mid 70s. Monday night, a weak surface low off
the US East Coast will begin to approach the area. This will
place the region in an onshore flow regime, and increased cloud
cover will likely result, especially near the coast.
Nevertheless, it should remain dry with lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the region
on Tuesday. Some enhancement to the flow will likely occur as
the weak surface low off the East Coast makes its closest
approach Tuesday night. Tuesday should feature dry conditions,
partly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid 70s. Tuesday night,
depending on how close the surface low gets to the coast, a few
showers will be possible southeast of the I-95 corridor. Lows
will remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s with plenty of clouds
around regardless of if we have any showers in the area.

Widespread cloudiness will likely remain for a large part of
the day Wednesday, keeping temperatures in the low 70s despite
most locations remaining dry. As the system begins to pull away
Wednesday night, clouds may be somewhat slow to depart, limiting
cooling with lows in the low-mid 50s. Once this system departs
the area, the region will remain embedded within weak flow aloft
through at least the first part of the weekend, with surface
high pressure in control.

Thursday through Saturday are expected to be dry across the
area. As of right now, Thursday looks like the warmest day of
the extended period with temperatures in the low 80s. A dry cold
frontal passage will likely cool things down again as we head
into the weekend, bringing pleasant conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Some shower activity lingers through the first half
of the night resulting in MVFR/IFR restrictions, primarily for
the I-95 and South Jersey terminals. An improvement to VFR is
possible late. Winds become northwesterly right around 00z, and
stay around 5-10 kt through the night. Low confidence in timing,
extent, and improvement of restrictions.

Sunday...Lingering sub-VFR conditions, mainly at KMIV/KACY, in
stratus/SHRA. Improving conditions otherwise. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

Monday night through Wednesday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions
cannot be ruled out, primarily in low clouds. A few showers are also
possible Tuesday night.

Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight, winds will diminish as a cold front comes through,
bringing winds out of the northwest around 10-20 kt. Seas 3 to
4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on the
water through most of the night.

On Sunday, sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters.

Outlook...

Sub-SCA conditions anticipated through Monday night, with winds
under 25 kt and seas under 5 feet. SCA conditions are possible
Tuesday into Wednesday, with northeasterly winds to 25 kt and
seas 5- 6 feet. Winds and seas should diminish by Thursday.


Rip Currents...

Sunday, winds turn northwesterly behind a cold front. Breaking
waves will be 1 to 2 feet with southeast swells 5 to 7 second
period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore
and at Delaware Beaches.

Monday, winds turn northerly around 10 mph. Breaking waves will
be 1 to 2 feet with southeast swells at a 7 second period. As a
result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous
and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at
Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some spotty minor tidal flooding is possible with the high tide
cycles tonight within the upper Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware
River. Coastal Flood Advisories are not expected, but some
standing water may be seen in low lying areas within these
communities near tidal areas.

No tidal flooding is expected along the Atlantic Ocean front.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/RCM/po
MARINE...Cooper/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...