120
FXUS61 KPHI 191942
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to spin off of the east
coast while high pressure remains across eastern Canada, nosing
its way into the region into early next week. A weak disturbance
is expected to move across the area Saturday night and Sunday,
before a stronger weather system possibly impacts the area by
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will meander well off the New Jersey through the
period. Meanwhile, high pressure will build down from eastern
Canada into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Based on sat pix and radar trends along with hi-res models, I
removed the slight chance of showers along the coastal plain.
While there isn`t a zero chance, chances are low enough to
remove the mention of showers through tomorrow morning. I do
have a slight chance back in the grids tomorrow afternoon across
the eastern zones.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Some patchy fog
may develop late tonight. Friday`s highs will be in the low 70s
to low 80s, slightly cooler than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An area of low pressure remains offshore of the east coast
Friday night, as high pressure noses its way down the eastern
seaboard from eastern Canada. This high gets squeezed by
Saturday through Sunday as a weak disturbance moves into the
area. This disturbance does not looks to be any frontal passage,
but more of a short wave/vorticity impulse passage. So there
will be a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday, albeit
20-30 percent at most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Sunday and Monday, the mid-level disturbance moves out of
the area and high pressure noses its way back down into the
region. This will bring dry conditions back to the area.
However, the dry weather may not last long as some much needed
rain may, possibly, move into the area. A messy frontal system
is forecast to move eastward as a an area of low pressure moves
across the Ohio River Vally and into the eastern Great Lakes
Tuesday through Thursday. The front may not actually make it to
the area before a secondary low pressure potentially develops
and impacts the area around Thursday. Cross our fingers this
comes to fruition as conditions have been abnormally dry for the
last month for many areas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Maybe some MVFR VSBYs late tonight, but
confidence is low, so it`s not included in the TAFs. Mainly NE
winds 5 kt or less, although there could be a period of light
and variable this evening. Moderate confidence.

Friday...There could be some MVFR VSBYs early, otherwise VFR is
expected. NE winds 5 to 10 kts with some gusts up to 15 kts.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible with a chance
of showers.

Sunday...MVFR or IFR conditions possible early, improving to
VFR.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected.

Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or IFR conditions possible with a
chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for NJ ocean waters through tonight for
5 to 6 ft seas. A SCA remains in effect for the Delaware ocean
waters for 5 ft seas for the remainder of today. Seas look to
build back to over 5 ft late tonight or towards daybreak across
our southern waters. With this in mind, the SCA will need to be
reissued and/or extended into tomorrow with this evening`s
update.

As for winds, N to NE winds will briefly relax this evening,
but pick back up and become 10 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to
25 kt for our ocean waters. Lighter winds expected across
Delaware Bay.

Outlook...

Friday night...Small Craft Advisory in effect due to seas.

Saturday-Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
continue due to seas.

Rip currents...

On Friday, winds become northeast and will increase to 15 to 20
mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Breaking waves will be a bit
higher, generally 4 to 6 ft. As a result, there is a HIGH risk
for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip
currents for the Jersey Shore and for the Delaware Beaches.

The HIGH risk is likely to continue through much of the weekend
as we are expecting similar conditions Saturday and Sunday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Continued onshore flow will result in water piling up and
unable to drain within tidal waterways. At least minor tidal
flooding is expected for the next several high tide cycles for
portions of our area. Moderate tidal flooding may occur for
portions of our area this weekend.

Coastal Flood Advisories are posted for the New Jersey coast,
Delaware Coast, and part of the Delaware Bay (Cumberland County
in New Jersey and Kent County in Delaware) as at least minor
tidal flooding is expected around high tide through the end of
the weekend. Some guidance indicates moderate flooding may occur
for some locations as early as the Friday morning high tide
cycle. However, confidence in this remains low at this time;
will stick with the advisory for now. A short-fused upgrade may
occur during the next update. Confidence is better for moderate
coastal flooding to occur with high tide cycles this weekend.
Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch as a result to cover the
Saturday and Sunday morning high tide cycles.

For the upper Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, only
spotty minor tidal flooding is expected for this week and
weekend.

No tidal flooding is expected along the northeastern shore of
Maryland.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NJZ012>014-020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454-
     455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...Kruzdlo
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/Robertson
MARINE...Kruzdlo/Robertson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI