025
FNUS76 KPDT 171538
FWSPDT

Spot Forecast for Elk16 FB...USFS
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
838 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 PDT on October 18.
***Thunderstorms imply gusty and erratic winds***
***Winds are 20 foot 10-minute averages***
***CWR-Chance of wetting rain 0.10 or greater***
***Ventilation Index is derived from the
   transport wind multiplied by the mixing
   height in 100`s of feet. Index categories
   are a generalized indicator only.***

If you have questions or concerns with this forecast, please
contact our office at (541) 276-8134.

.DISCUSSION...An upper level weak ridge will keep southwest winds
5 to 8 mph through Saturday night. Min RHs will be in the upper
teens to low 20% with moderate (70-75%) overnight recoveries.
Saturday night a cold front will come across the area bringing
an increase in winds to around 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph
and min RHs in the low to mid 40%.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....56-59.
Min humidity........19-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light southwest winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph
                    after 9 AM.
Ridgetop wind.......Downslope/down valley winds becoming south 7 to
                    9 mph after 9 AM.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming southwest 8 to 13 mph late
                    in the morning.
Ventilation Index...Poor (30) increasing to poor (160) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (PDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Chc of ltng (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............37     49     55     56     53     43
RH..............41     28     23     25     35     58
20 ft wind......SW 4   S 5    S 5    S 7    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.       6      6      10     8      8

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 19 percent early in the
                    morning.
Chance of lightning.2 percent.
Min temperature.....34-37.
Max humidity........73-78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......South winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL early in the evening then 500 ft
                    AGL early in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Ventilation Index...Poor (60) decreasing to poor (30) overnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Slight chance
                    of snow showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................19 percent decreasing to 1 percent late in the
                    morning.
Chance of lightning.2 percent.
Max temperature.....49-52.
Min humidity........43-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    west 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 20 mph
                    after 11 AM.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    west 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25 mph
                    after 11 AM.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 21 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Ventilation Index...Poor (150) increasing to excellent (900) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Bennese
Requested by...David Maynard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523823.0/PDT
.DELDT 10/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.maynard@usda.gov