394
FXUS66 KPDT 222102
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
202 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Continued dry and warm conditions
     *Heat Advisory in Effect*

2. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday
     *Red Flag Warning in affect for Abundant Lightning*

3. Hot, dry and windy conditions return Friday & Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows some cumulus beginning to pop up over
central OR. So far no thunderstorms have made their way into the
region as of yet. Abundant lightning is still expected through the
afternoon and the Red Flag warning is in effect through 11 PM
tonight. Outflow winds of 25-45 mph with small hail and heavy
precipitation possible with these storms.

Even with the lingering smoke, temperatures around the region have
been in the upper 90s with little overnight recovery temperatures.
Temperatures today are expected to reach into the upper 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s. Due to the high daytime
temperatures and moderate overnight low, a Heat advisory has been
issued for the Gorge, Columbia River Basin of OR and WA, the
foothills of the Blues of OR & WA as well as the Kittitas and Yakima
Valley through 9 PM Thursday. Confidence in the temperatures is high
(80-90%)

We are already beginning to see cumulus work its way into the region
in central OR. Models are still on track showing mid level moisture
will continue to surge into the region bringing with it instability
and the increase in thunderstorms. Isolated to squattered
thunderstorms are expected to persist through the early evening
hours. On the ground IMET in the region released a balloon as was
able to get us some local data. The sounding shows CAPE values in
the 800-900 J/km range with DCAPE values in the 1200 J/kg range.
Lapse rates of 9 C/km and PWATs around 1 inch. Forecast soundings
for the same area show very similar numbers as well as LIs of -3.
This shows that the models are in good agreement with what is
currently happening on the ground. Expect these storms to produce
small hail, gusty outflow winds of 25-45 mph and the potential for
heavy rain. Thursday models show the thunderstorms to be a bit more
broad in spread. The Cascades could see some stray storms through
the afternoon. The highest signal for thunderstorms is along the
foothills of the Blues and through Wallowa County. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for abundant lightning through those areas
for Thursday beginning after 1200.

Models show an upper level low off the coast of the PacNW. The low
will shift across the Cascades by Friday and will bring elevated
winds across the region. NBM raw ensembles shows there to be 80-90%
probabilities of sustained winds of 20-25 mph through the
Gorge,foothills of the southern Blues, north central and central
OR, Yakima and Kittitas Valleys. Saturday raw ensembles show the
same probabilities for the same locations but winds are 25-35 mph
sustained. This coupled with the very dry conditions on the ground
fire weather conditions will be elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Sub-VFR conditions attributable to smoke continues to affect
terminals in central OR and northeast OR, notably KBDN, KRDM,
and KPDT. Wildfire smoke will continue to impact sites with
improving conditions this afternoon as concerns turn to
thunderstorms/showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected across central OR
and eastern mountains through the day today with a Red Flag
Warning in effect through 11 PM for abundant lightning. Another
round of abundant lightning is expected along the Blues and
through the Wallowa Mountains Thursday and another Red Flag
Warning has been issued for those areas.

Friday will see increased winds across the region with critical
RHs. This will lead to fire weather concerns for hot, dry and
winds both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  99  67  96  62 /   0   0  10   0
ALW 102  72  99  69 /   0   0  10   0
PSC 103  70 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 102  73 100  64 /   0  10  10   0
HRI 103  71  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 100  69  95  61 /   0  10  10   0
RDM  94  58  93  55 /  30  50   0   0
LGD  99  66 100  62 /   0   0  40  10
GCD  97  62  99  59 /  10  10  20   0
DLS 104  70  92  65 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ024-027>029.
     Air Quality Alert until 9 AM PDT Friday for WAZ028>030.
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ041-044-507.
     Air Quality Alert until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ044-049-
     050-502-503-505>509-511.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ694-
     695-697>699.
     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ698-700-
     705.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...82
FIRE WEATHER...90