607
FXUS66 KPDT 291025
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
325 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry conditions will persist through the week

2. Slight Chances of dry thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday

3. Diurnally breezy winds and low RHs

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows clear skies over the region this morning.
Smoke and haze will linger across the region as southwest flow aloft
continues to move the smoke to the northeast. Much of the smoke is
aloft but cannot rule out light surface smoke first thing in the
morning across the Basin and the foothills of the Northern Blues.

Models show the region to be influenced by an upper level low off
the coast that is bringing in southwest flow aloft. Looking at the
satellite imagery of low to high level moisture, much of the
moisture is aloft with dry air at the surface. Models show the flow
to continue through the week with a few rounds of shortwaves making
their way across the area. These dry conditions will persist through
the week.

Models show the first round of shortwaves to make their way across
the region today bringing with it low chances of thunderstorms
across the eastern and southern mountains of the county warning
area. Looking and the ECMWF lightning density, it shows much of the
southern portion of the region could see some isolated
thunderstorms. Forecast sounding from the NAM shows there to be
enough MUCAPE in the region to initiate a storm or two with values
above 500 J/kg, lapse rates of 8.6 C/km and higher, LI of -2 and
bulk shear of 33 kts. These conditions could lead to isolated
thunderstorms. PWATs are also below 1 inch so these storms will
likely be dry in nature. While the confidence in thunderstorms is
low (10-15%), confidence in the instability across the region is
high. Instability over the fire on the ground could cause for some
active fire behavior in the afternoon.

The remainder of the week the pattern will stay with southwest flow
and dry conditions. RHs will recover somewhat as the temperatures
remain cool, but some areas will still remain near critical.
Diurnally driven breezy winds will also persist through the week
until the pattern shifts slightly on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the forecasted
period. Winds will be breezy between 10-20 kts and gusts to near 25
kts at DLS with gusts to near 20kts at BDN/RDM. Otherwise, light
winds through the period. Moderate confidence (50-60%) smoke will
not impact VIS at any sites this period just a light haze.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  86  56  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  88  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  90  60  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  89  58  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  89  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  85  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  88  48  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  91  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  94  55  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for ORZ041-044-049-050-
     502-503-505>511.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90