926
FXUS66 KPDT 030508
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1008 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and above seasonal temperatures through the weekend

2. Thunderstorms chances central OR Cascades through Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows a few convective cells riding along the
ridgetops of the Cascades. Ground observations do not show any
rainfall has occurred and the lightning detection network has not
picked up on any lightning strikes. Satellite does show some areas
along the OR Cascades and central OR with some cloud cover as well
as along the foothills of the Blues. These clouds are moving to the
northeast and drying out quickly. The remaining areas are under
clear skies. Some Cu fields are beginning to form to the south of
the region and into Grant and Wasco Counties with some larger Cu
popping up along the border of Deschutes and Lake Counties.

Models show the upper level high will remain overhead through the
weekend. This will bring continued warm and dry temperatures.
Looking at the in house temperature comparison, temperatures will be
10-20 degrees above seasonal normal through Monday. Today
(Saturday), 80-90% of the raw ensembles show the vast majority of
the region seeing min to upper 70s while the Basin and the Gorge
will see above 80 degrees. Sunday 60-80% of the NBM raw ensembles
show temperatures in the low to mid 80s for the Basin, Gorge,
Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, the foothills of the Blues and central OR.
Elsewhere will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Monday will an
increase in temperatures in the same areas as previously mentioned
with temperatures in the mid to upper 80 and low 80s elsewhere with
80-90% raw ensembles agreement.

Models show the center of the upper level low still off the coast of
California with the leading edge continuing to affect the central OR
area with south to south flow aloft. This is a prime environment for
thunderstorms to return over the central OR Cascade crests. SPC has
the area in general thunderstorm chances and the NBM probability of
thunder for 12 hours is 15-25%. Forecast soundings for today
(Saturday) show MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, lapse rates between 7-
8 C/km, lifted indices between -5-(-7), and effective bulk shear
near 20 kts. Sunday chances again decrease to 5-10% with the upper
level low being shown to be a bit deeper south with less influence
to the region. However, cannot rule out the possibility of a
thunderstorm or two developing over the crests.

Moving on into next week, models show the continuation of an upper
level high over the region. This will keep conditions dry and warm
through the long term with temperatures averaging above seasonal
normal. Models do not show a hint of a pattern shift until next
weekend at the earliest. 90

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...VFR conditions to
prevail through the period. There will be around a 10-15% chance
for an isolated thunderstorm or shower to impact sites RDM/BDN
tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, all other
sites will remain dry. Winds will be light through the period.
Lawhorn/82

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  51  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  54  83  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  52  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  54  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  51  86  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  82  51  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  42  81  43  80 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  47  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  47  80  45  78 /   0  20  10   0
DLS  57  88  57  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...82