Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
786 FXUS66 KPDT 021707 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 907 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain and high mountain snow across central and eastern portions of Oregon today. - Widespread precipitation return Tuesday into Wednesday with light to moderate mountain snow. - Potential for breezy to gusty winds (gusts 35-50 mph) developing Wednesday. -Persistent precip Thursday into next week, with breezy winds Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor satellite and radar imagery tonight depicts a strong upper level low moving onshore of northern CA, while light returns develop across parts of eastern OR. Today through Tuesday morning: Light rain showers will continue across southern OR and portions of eastern OR through this morning as the upper trough moves across the PacNW. By this afternoon, precipitation will then taper off across the affected areas as the trough over the CA/NV border. This will leave our region dry through Tuesday morning as the transient ridge moves across our region. Light mountain snow will develop with low snow amounts of 0.1 to 1 inches for Mt Bachelor, Paulina peak, Strawberry Range and Wallowa mountains. Both REFS and NBM suggests a 30-60% probability of exceeding 0.5 inch for this morning. With snow levels above 4.5kft and above normal temperatures (around 50s and 60s), this will likely be the case of wet snow (50% confidence). Otherwise, rain showers across the rest of the southern OR will result in rain amounts around 0.15 to 0.3 inches during these morning hours. In addition, the NBM prob of 6-hr precip favor a 20-40% prob for 0.15 inches or more. Models and ensembles are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern with its light precip activity. Lastly, sky cover will increase late tonight through Tuesday morning. This could minimize viewing potential for the lunar eclipse Tuesday morning around 3am-4am PST for its totality. It may start off with few or scattered clouds around then, so might be the best chance to view the eclipse before the sky become more cloudy (>60% confidence). Tuesday through Wednesday night: Ensembles and models are in good alignment with an approaching frontal system later Tuesday morning, followed by an upper trough moving to the PacNW starting Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Precip chances will increase along the WA/OR Cascades and Blue mountains late Tuesday morning into afternoon before becoming widespread late Tuesday night. With that, this will result in widespread rain showers and light to moderate mountain snow. The NBM prob of 24-hr precip reveals a 50-80% prob for rain amounts around 0.50 inch or higher, but 20-40% prob for 1 inch or greater across the mountain areas. The lowlands will receive rainfall amounts up to about 0.15-0.30 inches (30-50% prob for 0.15 inch or more). As mentioned early, light to moderate mountain snow will develop across the Cascades, Blue mountains and portions of eastern OR. Snow levels will be above 4.5kft Tuesday before gradually dropping to 3- 4kft as the upper trough passage approaches to the PacNW by Wednesday with the southerly flow. This could result in snow totals ranging between 1 and 5 inches over the Blue mountains and portions of eastern OR (35-55% confidence). The crest of the WA/OR Cascades and wallowa mountains could get higher snow accumulations exceeding 5 inches (30-60% prob). The GFS and NAM models seem to be in favor of more snowfall for WA/OR Cascades as well. Over 60% cluster members agree with this troughing pattern and the associated precip. The deterministic models are depicting tight surface pressure gradients over Kittitas Valley to the Columbia Basin. Breezy winds (gusts 35-50 mph) will develop with the frontal passage Wednesday (50-70% confidence) with the strongest winds over the Cascade peaks/ridges and ridges in the Columbia Basin. Thursday into next week: Models and ensembles remain in great agreement with that northwest flow aloft bringing persistent light snow and rain/snow mix along the WA/OR Cascade crests, Northern Blues, and Eagle Caps through Friday afternoon. The flow will then become more zonal over the weekend with 20-40% precip chances over the mountain areas, but lower (10-20%) for the lowlands. Thursday and Saturday will be gusty (30-50 mph) over the ridges at the WA Cascades and Kittitas Valley during afternoon and evening hours (30- 60% prob for 24-hr Max Gust). The remaining locations will have breezy winds (15-25 mph) (50% confidence). Feaster/97 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. KRDM/KBDN are currently MVFR due to low CIGs of 1500-2500 ft and will remain MVFR through 20Z before clearing to VFR. BDN is also seeing VIS at 6sm due to BR. Winds are light and variable less than 6kts across all TAF sites. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 56 36 60 42 / 10 0 0 50 ALW 55 40 60 44 / 0 0 0 70 PSC 60 36 62 44 / 0 0 0 40 YKM 58 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 50 HRI 60 36 62 44 / 0 0 0 40 ELN 55 34 52 36 / 0 0 10 50 RDM 55 30 58 36 / 30 0 0 20 LGD 57 34 59 41 / 40 0 0 60 GCD 53 33 57 40 / 80 0 0 30 DLS 61 40 57 44 / 0 0 30 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ UPDATE...88 DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...90