289
FNUS71 KPBZ 181034
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for BC3 Training...PA DCNR
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
534 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions continue today with highs several degrees above
normal. A trend towards a colder and more active weather
pattern begins midweek and will continue into next weekend.
Above normal temperatures will transition to below normal by the
end of the week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then becoming
                    light late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 9 mph.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................5 to 19.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  78  73  70  59  57  44  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  54  57  57  59  59  58  57
RH..............100 91  82  82  78  76  75  78
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   3   2
20 FT wind gust.8   8   10  10  10  8   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   9   8   7   6   5
LVORI...........6   5   3   3   3   4   4   4
ADI.............11  15  17  19  17  13  10  5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the evening. Areas of fog early in the
                    evening, then patchy fog overnight.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 5 mph shifting to the east 7 to 9
                    mph overnight.
LVORI...............8.
ADI.................2 to 4.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  56  63  69  71  66  69  73  72  70  80  69
Weather cov.....    PTY ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS PTY
Weather type....    FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  49  48  47  46  46  44  44  43  43  42  41
RH..............82  93  99  97  100 97  99  98  99  97  96  95
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   4   2   2   4   4   5   5   5   6   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   5   3   5   5   5   6   7   7   8   8   9
LVORI...........5   7   10  8   10  8   9   9   9   8   8   8
ADI.............2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    late in the morning. Rain likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 13 mph shifting to the south
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7 to 21.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  35  23  19  27  34  51  69  74  78  83  86
Weather cov.....                    CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                    RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  50  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  42  44  49  54  58  60  61  60  60  60  58
RH..............92  94  90  83  78  72  71  72  73  76  78  83
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  11  11  11  11  11  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.9   12  12  12  12  13  13  12  10  9   9   9
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
ADI.............7   9   9   9   18  21  21  16  13  11  10  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...MPK
Requested by...Chad Gadsby, Fire Forester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426680.0/PBZ
.DELDT 11/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cgadsby@pa.gov