184
FXUS61 KPBZ 082317 CCA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
717 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions can be expected today and into the
upcoming weekend behind a departing cold front and with
developing high pressure. A moderate chance for some measurable
precipitation Saturday into Sunday. Pattern variability exists
at the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low temperatures in the 30s, with at least patchy frost likely
  north and east of Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------------------------

Evening Update...
The current forecast remains on track, with diurnal cu
dissipating and giving way to mostly clear skies. Low
temperatures in the 30s and patchy frost, primarily north and
east of Pittsburgh, is still expected overnight into early
Thursday morning. The previous discussion can be found below for
reference.

Previous (Afternoon) Discussion...
Scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus remain across the
region this afternoon in northwesterly cold advection behind the
departed cold front. Wind gusts have been fairly intermittent
so far, but with steepening low-level lapse rates as indicated
on ACARS soundings, still expect some to 20 to 25 MPH peak
values during the afternoon.

Most of the cloud cover will collapse with the loss of diurnal
heating, with a mostly clear overnight period. Despite the rain
yesterday and last night, a day of drying (aided by wind) and
falling dewpoints should limit fog to a few isolated valleys
overnight.

While the surface pressure gradient will relax somewhat with the
center of high pressure tracking across western New York, much
of the guidance suggests some light north or northeast wind
continuing through much of tonight. This will prevent
radiational cooling from being as efficient as it could be, and
could also hinder the formation of dew (and thus frost) in some
cases. Sticking with NBM mean low temperature still seems
prudent in this setup. The area where values in the lower and
mid 30s are expected, to the north and/or east of Pittsburgh,
still matches up well with the existing Frost Advisory and will
not make any changes to that headline. Still, as suggested
above, frost may end up being a bit more patchy than anything.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Around 5 degrees below normal Thursday
- Thursday night`s lows may result in morning frost or freezing
  conditions
- Friday`s high around average with overnight lows in the 40s
----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry and cooler temperatures continue Thursday as the high continues
to transition southeastward towards New England by Friday morning
with a ridge extending southwestward to eastern Kentucky. Due to the
large scale subsidence, cloud development will be limited. Even with
clear skies, Thursday`s high temperatures are expected to be in the
low 60s with areas north of I-80 only reaching into the upper 50s.

Overnight, there will be a light downslope (warming) easterly wind,
however, low temperatures are forecast to be cooler than tonight.
Latest guidance shows at least a 35% or higher probability of
reaching 32F in areas northeast of I-76. A Freeze Watch has been
issued for the same areas mentioned above, and areas to the south
could potentially need a Frost Advisory as well.

On Friday, the ridge will remain in the region with mostly clear
skies. Wind is expected to shift out of the southeast and highs are
forecast to reach into the mid to upper 60s, around average
temperatures. Light southeasterly wind will persist overnight
inhibiting efficient radiative cooling. This will result in warmer
overnight lows into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Chance for measurable precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
- Temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F
- Pattern variability exists at the start of next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure will move offshore overnight Friday. By
Saturday, a weak upper-level trough from over the Great Lakes will
bring a moderate chance (40%-50%) for measurable precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday. High temperatures are expected to remain
in the upper 60s to near 70 over the weekend.

This upper level trough is expected to merge with second upper-level
over the east coast (associated with a surface low moving up the
eastern seaboard). This brings a higher level of uncertainty in the
forecast from there on out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and dry air advection will keep VFR conditions
with clear skies through the period. Meager decoupling
overnight will keep winds more NNW overnight before veering NW
with mixing Thursday afternoon. With overnight winds and dry
air, chances of vis obstruction in fog at any port is <10%.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR expected apart for patchy morning fog through late Saturday.
Chances of restrictions increase with an approaching low late
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-073>078.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ510>514.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...Cermak/CL
SHORT TERM...Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Milcarek