235
FXUS61 KPBZ 130634
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
234 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers are expected over the ridges this morning.
Dry and warm conditions are expected Tuesday with a building
ridge. Cooler temperatures settle in by Wednesday as dry weather
continues into the weekend. Next widespread rain chances appear
to be late next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few isolated morning showers across the ridges
- Temperatures a few degrees above normal
---------------------------------------------------------------

Coastal low continues to travel up the East Coast today. Earlier
stratocu coverage has largely decreased across the western half
of the forecast area, though broken clouds will likely be
maintained across eastern portions of the area through much of
the day. Morning lows are expected to be a few degrees above
average, though locally colder spots are possible farther west
in places sheltered from the wind under clear skies.

The last gasp of moisture from the coastal system will spill
over the ridges early this morning. This may result in
isolated, light showers across the ridges before dawn. Any
lingering showers should end by mid-morning. Most of the area
will remain dry.

Heights will subtly rise today as the upper low is shunted
eastward. This and lessening cloud cover (especially farther
west) will help boost high temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon. Overnight lows will fall a little closer to average
with most in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions expected through much of the week
- Warmer temperatures on Tuesday, then a cooling trend
- Frost and freeze possible Wednesday night and Thursday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Upper ridging currently across the Great Lakes and Mississippi
Valley will shift east on Tuesday, increasing heights and
driving high temperatures several degrees warmer than today.
However, a pattern change is expected by Tuesday night as the
ridge axis crosses as heights quickly fall and flow becomes
northwesterly aloft. At the surface, Great Lakes high pressure
will slowly build across the region before weakening and
shifting east late week. Together, these will keep dry, but
cooler, weather in the forecast through the short term and into
the weekend.

Dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and light wind overnight
under the influence of high pressure should allow for efficient
radiational cooling. Wednesday night looks to be the next chance
for patchy frost as much of the area north and east of
Pittsburgh dips into the mid/low 30s. Thursday night will likely
be a few degrees cooler still, with areas north and east of
Pittsburgh having a 60-90% probability of freezing. Frost/Freeze
headlines will likely be needed for portions of the area those
two nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures return Friday into the weekend
- Rain chances return late this weekend

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range ensembles indicate surface high pressure will begin
to fill and shift eastward on Friday, while the upper ridge
begins to build over the region. This should begin a brief
warming trend that will last through Saturday when high
temperatures in the 70s return.

A deepening Great Lakes trough, coincident with Ontario surface
low pressure and cold front, will swing through the region late
Saturday into Sunday. This is likely to be our next widespread
chance for rain, though details remain murky for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface low will continue to slowly track up the east coast,
bringing cloud cover and scattered showers to the eastern part
of the forecast area. Thus, some MVFR/IFR cigs can be expected
at terminals such as DUJ and LBE. The other terminals will
likely see some MVFR cigs through the day. Winds will be mainly
out of the northeast through the period and mainly light if not
calm at times. Any threat of showers will be confined with LBE
and DUJ.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will minimize restriction potential until
precipitation chances return late next weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Rackley
AVIATION...Shallenberger/Lupo