866
FXUS61 KPBZ 120057 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
857 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled much of the Flood Watch east of I-77.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Storms will bring near-daily flood and severe potential
through at least Wednesday, although the threat is gradually
decreasing with time in the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The latest mesoanalysis shows instability has waned across much
of the area, after the passage of multiple MCSs. A band of 1000
ML CAPE was seen on mesoanalysis along a surface boundary near
and north of I-80. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along
this boundary over the next few hours before diminishing. Expect
much of the remainder of the night to be dry as an additional
MCS drops SE across the Midwest and Lower Ohio Valley region.
Cancelled the Flood Watch for areas east of I-77. While
any additional rain is expected to be minimal, left the flood
watch for the remainder of the Ohio counties with ongoing
flooding in some locations, and with small streams and creeks
still rising due to runoff from recent heavy rainfall.

Remainder of the earlier discussion is below...
Relatively low confidence forecast continues as predictability
horizon is mainly just the next 6 to 12 hours as thunderstorm
complexes push along the front and then dominate the forecast
for the next period of 6-12 hours.

A series of thunderstorm complexes overnight and today has
pushed the effective outflow boundary/front relatively far south
and stabilized much of the forecast area. The rich moisture and
instability extends from central Indiana into southern Ohio and
southern West Virginia, and repeated rounds of thunderstorms
along the boundary are likely to keep it from lifting back
north tonight and Wednesday.

With the effective boundary gradually sagging south with each
MCS, the axis of heaviest rain later tonight into Wednesday will
likely setup from northern Indiana SE into southern Ohio and
may be outside of our forecast area.

Thereafter the WNW flow pattern continues with nearly daily
thunderstorm chances with the highest probabilities Thursday and
Sunday. Low probabilities of heavy rainfall/flooding and
damaging wind gusts will persist in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Most of the instability has waned across the region after the
passage of multiple MCSs. The exception is north of PIT, where
some destabilization has occurred, with a few showers and
thunderstorms along a surface boundary. These could impact FKL
and DUJ through the rest of the evening. Otherwise, with low
level moisture in place, IFR stratus is expected overnight into
early Wednesday morning. Cigs should lift to MVFR, and
transition into a CU/stratocu layer and return to VFR levels by
afternoon.

The latest guidance indicates a relatively weak shortwave should
cross the Upper Ohio Valley region late tomorrow afternoon and
evening, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. Included
a prob30 mention of this in the TAFs.

Outlook...
Patchy morning fog and stratus is possible Thursday morning. A
wave of low pressure tracking along a stationary front will
increase shower/thunderstorm chances Thursday into Thursday
night. VFR returns Friday night through Saturday night under
high pressure. Restriction potential returns with shower and
thunderstorm chances on Sunday with the approach of a cold
front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ039-048-057-058-
     068.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven/WM
AVIATION...WM