777
FXUS61 KPBZ 011651
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1251 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions continue through the weekend before
warming back up early next week. Rain chances return middle to
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool and dry conditions prevail through the near term.

---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure builds into the Great Lakes through the near term
in the wake of Thursday`s cold front. Cool and dry weather will
dominate the forecast as a result, with low temperatures
tonight dropping into the low to mid 50s across much of the area
(upper 40s possible north of I-80).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry conditions continue into the weekend.
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High pressure remains in place over the Great Lakes on Saturday
and into Saturday night, maintaining cool and dry conditions
across the area. Expect mostly sunny/clear skies, light winds,
and temperatures running near or just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions through Monday.
- Slight chance of showers and storms mid-week
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There is high confidence in dry conditions persisting through at
least Monday as high pressure dominates the local forecast. A
slight warming trend will begin, however, with temperatures
climbing back above normal to the mid/upper 80s Sunday and
Monday afternoons.

Ensembles continue to suggest a trough moving from the Midwest
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. While lingering dry
air may initially serve to hinder the development of showers and
storms, some low-end precipitation potential returns during that
timeframe with PoPs increasing from 10-30% Tuesday afternoon to
20-40% Wednesday afternoon. Each day, the highest probabilities
for precipitation will be focused south of I-70, with lower
probabilities farther north.

Beyond Wednesday, models remain uncertain whether a trough will
deepen over the Great Lakes or if ridging will persist over the
Ohio Valley. The former solution would lead to a wetter local
forecast to end the week while the latter would keep us drier.
Given this uncertainty, opted not to deviate from the NBM`s low
chance PoPs (20-40%) each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and mixing of drier air will work to erode VFR and
pockets of MVFR stratocu southwest of Pittsburgh through 00z.
Deeper mixing and a residual surface gradient may allow for
occasional north/northeast wind gusts to 20kts.

River valley fog appears favorable Saturday morning due to clear
skies aiding strong radiational cooling. However, enough
boundary layer mixing should limit/prevent terminal impacts and
thus was precluded from sites like FKL/DU/AGC.

Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for
morning river valley steam fog) with dry weather through the weekend
and into early portions of next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier