381
FXUS61 KPBZ 040649
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
249 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will drop south into the area bringing a
chance of unsettled weather today. Starting Friday, the region will
be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days.
Fog development is possible during the morning each day. On Monday,
an unsettled pattern will return to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly river valley fog expected through dawn.
- Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth.
---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure has now settled into the region centered over the
Middle Atlantic region. As the ridge axis aloft now positions
over the Midwest but slowly edging east. This will keep mainly
clear skies through dawn. Some isolated instances of river
valley fog will be possible. Sky cover will remain mainly clear
through the coming day and through the overnight. Temperatures
will warm to a few degree above normal for highs today given the
sunny skies and dry conditions. Did populate the 10th percentile
dew points for today given the dry trend.

Heading into the overnight tonight, once again, there will be
another chance of some river valley fog to develop. Low
temperatures tonight will remain near average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Chance for fog on Friday and Saturday mornings.
- Temperatures above average.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Rising heights and southerly flow on Saturday should boost area
highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM probs for 90F are highest
across eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia panhandle, and the
Pittsburgh urban heat island (65%-85%). For Lawrence, Beaver,
southern Armstrong, and northwestern Westmoreland counties,
probabilities for 90F are generally around 30%-40%. Outside of these
regions, the probability for these temperatures are lower with no
chance in most of the areas along the Appalachian Mountains.

On Sunday, the ridge is forecast to flatten with westerly flow aloft
across the Upper Ohio Valley region. The 500 mb heights are expected
to approach 590 dam, maintaining hot conditions across the region.
There is a high probability across most of the region (75%-95%) that
maximum temperatures reach or exceed 90F. The heat indices remain in
the 90s, so there is a low chance for a Heat Advisory being
issued.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances returning Sunday night and Monday.
- Increasingly hot and humid conditions on Monday
- Post frontal rain chances remain on Tuesday and Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

With the flattened ridge, disturbances embedded in the flow aloft
are expected to periodically cross the region, with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances returning. Thus, will expected showers and
thunderstorms to develop Sunday night.

On Monday, 500 mb heights are still expected to be around 590 dam,
allowing hot and humid conditions to persist across most of the
region. High probability (60%-75%) of maximum temperatures at or
above 90 degrees. The chances of Heat Advisory criteria remains low
as heat indices remain in the 90s.

Temperatures are expected to relax for the Tuesday and Wednesday
period due to the passage of a cold front Monday night. This will
allow cooler air into the region with the potential of some
lingering chances for precip behind the front. The front is
expected to lift back north as precip potential continues on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Largely clear skies and VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF
period.

Minimal fog impacts are expected overnight with efficient dewpoint
mixing seen this past afternoon. River valleys seem the most likely
culprits Friday morning. Have maintained TEMPOs for MGW and HLG but
lessened impacts to high end MVFR. Added a TEMPO for FKL following
the same line of thinking.

A scattered VFR cu field will sprout tomorrow during daytime
heating but clouds will once again dissipate as the sun sets. Light
and variable winds are expected to become northerly but remain
rather light tomorrow afternoon before once again relaxing in the
evening.

Outlook... VFR is expected through Sunday as high pressure moves
across the region. Precipitation chances and isolated restrictions
return Sunday night into Monday.&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...AK