378
FXUS61 KPBZ 171152
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
752 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A crossing cold front will bring gusty wind today, as well as
relatively cooler temperatures to the region this weekend.
Scattered showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms are
expected today before overall dry conditions return Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A cold front will cross the area, bringing gusty winds and a
cooldown.
- Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms are expected with
  frontal passage.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Showers associated with a prefrontal trough have exited areas
north of I-80 this morning. A brief mostly dry period will
follow this morning, with lingering clouds.

While upper level low pressure crosses Michigan and southern
Ontario today, an associated cold front will push across the
region later today, generally in the 15Z to 19Z window.
Accompanying the front will be a round of scattered showers,
most likely north of Pittsburgh. CAPE vertical profiles suggest
potentially enough buoyancy for lightning generation, mainly
north of I-80, but not enough for a severe weather concern.

The main impact of the front will be gusty wind. Wind gusts of
20-30 MPH are currently ongoing across the region, and with more
efficient mixing later and the passing front, gusts of 30-40
MPH can be expected in most locations. A Wind Advisory goes into
effect for Eastern Tucker County at 10 AM, where gusts of 45-55
MPH will be possible in the highest terrain.

High temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the lower
and mid 70s in most locations, but post-frontal cold advection
will lead to a drop into the 60s during the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Wind Advisory for Eastern Tucker County continues to 2am
Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph remaining possible. Winds die
down a bit overnight with decoupling.

Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes and
northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local area
Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the weather
dry through that time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and drier pattern returns continues through Tuesday.
- Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with
  another low pressure system
- Potential for heavy rain mid-week that warrants monitoring
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes
and northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local
area Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the
weather dry through that time.

Probability of precipitation increases again late Tuesday into
Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and
tracking east across the Plains. A few model scenarios note a
stationary boundary straddling south of Pittsburgh with this
passing low. If that scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose
a threat for portions of the region around mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers have departed the region with a prefrontal trough, but
VFR/spotty MVFR stratocumulus remain across the region. As
daytime mixing commences, some clearing is foreseen ahead of the
approaching cold front.

As the cold front and an upper trough cross the region this
afternoon, scattered showers are expected to develop especially
north of PIT. Buoyancy may be sufficient to allow for a
thunderstorm at FKL/DUJ, and PROB30 for thunder was maintained
at these sites. Confidence in thunder further south is not
sufficient for inclusion at this time. Otherwise, low VFR
ceilings are forecast

Wind gusts, already in the 15-25 knot range this morning, will
increase later this morning into the afternoon with the frontal
passage and steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusts of 25-35
knots out of the WSW can be expected during the afternoon.

Showers are forecast to largely end this evening, although
a stratocumulus deck will remain in the cold advection behind
the front. Some MVFR restrictions are expected north of
PIT overnight, while wind gusts slowly subside.


Outlook...
VFR returns Monday under high pressure, before restriction
potential and showers return Tuesday and Wednesday with crossing
low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...WM/CL