Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
790 FXUS61 KPBZ 281738 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather through the weekend. Heat and humidity return next week with Heat Risk likely 2) Ridge placement is important to shower and thunderstorm chances returning next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure sinks into the region this afternoon and kicks off a stretch of dry weather expected to last through the weekend. A ridge currently located in the western CONUS will begin a slow march eastward today. Heights rise locally beginning this weekend as the ridge slides into the central CONUS. This continues our dry weather and kicks off a warming trend that sees temperatures rise back above normal. By early next week the ridge will continue moving eastward and become centered somewhere across the southeast US. Our proximity to this ridge will help push daytime highs back towards and into the low 90s. This brings with it a likely moderate and possible major Heat Risk across the region peaking on Tuesday. Heat Risk will be highest in urban centers and along the river valleys. The ridge is expected to begin to break down some by midweek as a series of shortwaves round and flatten the top of it. Most ensembles agree on a corresponding lowering of local heights by mid-to- late next week, trimming high temperatures and heat risk back with it. KEY MESSAGE 2... Ensembles hint at the return of showers and storm chances by next week but differ on their timing and presentation of the threat. The placement of our early week upper ridge is very important in both the timing and degree of storm coverage through next week. By midweek, there is rather good agreement that a trough or series of shortwaves cross the central CONUS and flatten the ridge in the east. The favored storm track will be along the northeastern periphery of the ridge. If the ridge stalls directly overhead, appreciable storm chances plummet as the favored storm track sets up to our northeast across NY and New England. If the ridge stalls a little to our west then this favored storm track settles overhead bringing rounds of active weather to the region during the heart of the next work week. Machine learning indicates some kind of broad severe risk across much of the Mid-Atlantic into the northeast by next Wednesday but the finer details of this will largely depend on our impending synoptic pattern this weekend, particularly where the ridge sets up. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A few isolated showers have formed around AGC/LBE but otherwise most of the area remains dry this afternoon under a SCT/BKN stratocu deck with cigs around 3-5kft AGL. The cu field dissipates after sunset with the loss of daytime heating, followed by clearing skies and light winds overnight. There will be some potential for patchy fog again during pre-dawn hours Saturday morning, but overall probabilities for visibilities below a mile are only around 20% in both the NBM and HREF. If fog does develop, it`ll likely remain mostly concentrated in and around river valleys. Outlook... Outside of patchy morning fog/stratus, VFR is expected through the weekend as surface high pressure moves east across the region. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return mainly north of I-80 Monday and Tuesday as shortwaves track along the northern periphery of a ridge. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AK AVIATION...Cermak